Download or read book J M Keynes Theory of Decision Making Induction and Analogy written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2004-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard view of the economics profession is that Keynes was a brilliant, intuitive, non-rigorous innovator. These essays show that Keynes backed up his "intuitions" with a rigorous mathematical and logical supporting analysis which has been overlooked for the last 60-70 years.Keynes was the first scholar in history to systematically develop an interval valued approach to the estimation of probabilities.Unfortunately,Keynes called his interval estimates "nonnumerical(or nonmeasurable) probabilities",since they required two numerals,not one,to estimate the probability.F P Ramsey badly misinterpreted Keynes´s wording to mean that ,in general,numbers could not be used to calculate probabilities.Ramsey´s misinterpretation,which is primarily based on his reading of only one chapter in the TP,chapter III, has been passed down to literally hundreds of thousands of economists,historians,philosophers,statisticians,psychologists,decision theorists,and mathematical social scientists,etc.,over the last half century.The current misbelief ,that Ramsey devastated the logical foundations of Keynes´s logical approach to probability to such a degree that Keynes was forced to capitulate to Ramsey and accept the subjectivist approach to probability,is simply a myth that is handed down from one generation of illiterate economists and philosophers to the next.Keynes was the first decision theorist in history to develop an explicit interval valued approach to probability based on the earlier work of Boole.Keynes was the first scholar in history to explicitly define an index to measure the weight of the evidence,w, on the unit interval [0,1].He was also the first scholar in history to propose a decision rule,his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c,to take into account nonlinear probability preferences and the weight/uncertainty or ambiguity(Ellsberg´s more inclusive description,defined by his rho variable on the unit interval between 0 and 1) of the available evidence.Probability and weight are completely separate and independent of each other.Both variables are needed in a formal decision criteria. This book sets the record straight.In essay number 10(essay 24 of the "Essays..." book)the importance of D. Ellsberg´s optimism-pessimism index, alpha(as well as his application of sets of different probability distributions), has been overlooked by the author.Footnote 1 to that essay,as well as the material to which the footnote is appended, is deficient and needs to be revised.Keynes needed such a formal index in his GT.Instead,Keynes relied upon an informal analysis based on conventions and animal spirits.Ellsberg´s formal analysis strengthens the technical and theoretical foundations supporting Keynes´s theories of Liquidity Preference and the Marginal Efficiency of Capital.This book is an abridged version of my much longer "Essays on JM Keynes and...".It concentrates exclusively on Keynes´s contributions to probability,analogy,induction,and decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Download or read book Reviewing the Reviewer s of Keynes s a Treatise on Probability written by Michael Brady and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2016-09-24 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard view of the economics profession is that Keynes was a brilliant, intuitive, nonrigorous innovator. These essays show that Keynes backed up his intuitions with a rigorous mathematical and logical supporting analysis, which has been overlooked.
Download or read book J M Keynes Versus F H Knight written by Yasuhiro Sakai and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critically discusses and systematically compares J.M. Keynes and F. H. Knight, two giants in the history of economic thought. In 1921 they both published apparently similar books on risk, probability, and uncertainty. However, while Knight's contribution on risk and uncertainty is now well recognized, Keynes's work on probability and uncertainty has been somewhat ignored in the shadow of his more famous The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). Focusing on an earlier yet equally important volume by Keynes, A Treatise on Probability (1921), this book sheds a light on his outstanding ideas and the lasting influence on his later works, including The General Theory. There are few books that systematically discuss Keynes and Knight, although there are remarkable comparisons between Keynes's concept of probability and uncertainty and Knight's distinction between a measurable risk and a non-measurable uncertainty. This timely book unifies Keynes and Knight into a new, comprehensive approach to a very complex human behavior
Download or read book Adam Smith written by MICHAEL EMMETT BRADY and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2015-07-21 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adam Smiths original, path breaking work on decision making, uncertainty and public policies to minimize the impact of uncertainty in the economy has been overlooked for well over two hundred years. One need only peruse the badly analyzed work of Smith in this area as presented by Henry D MacLeod in his The Elements of Political Economy on pp.212-220 or Henry Sidgwicks The Principles of Political Economy on pp.359-361, as well as the misevaluations of Smiths contributions made by Jacob Viner in 1927, Joseph Schumpeter in 1954, Murray Rothbard in 1995, or Salim Rashid in 1998 to realize that Smiths important contributions were never recognized. The claim that Smith made no original contributions to economic theory or economics is simply false.
Download or read book The Philosophy and Economics of J M Keynes written by Bill Gerrard and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This examination of the philosophy and economics of J.M. Keynes includes sections on Keynes's philosophy and method, his theory of competition, and his psychology of economics.
Download or read book What Keynes Means written by Anatol Murad and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 1962 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The principal ideas and theories of John Maynard Keynes are discusses as the significance of his contribution to economics and pointing out inconsistencies and contradictions in his theories.
Download or read book The Philosophy of Keynes Economics written by Sohei Mizuhara and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-06-04 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes is undoubtedly the most influential Western economist of the twentieth century. His emphasis on the nature and role of uncertainty in economic thought is a dominant theme in his writings. This book brings together a wide array of experts on Keynes' thought such as Gay Tulip Meeks, Sheila Dow and John Davis who discuss, analyse and criticise such themes as Keynesian probability and uncertainty, the foundations of Keynes' economics and the relationship between Keynes' earlier and later thought. The Philosophy of Keynes' Economics is a readable and comprehensive book that will interest students and academics interested in the man and his thought.
Download or read book The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes A treatise on probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On Keynes s Method written by Anna M. Carabell and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 1988-08-27 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists have traditionally regarded "Treatise On Probability" by Keynes as an anomaly amongst his published writings. This volume attempts to fix "Probability" firmly in its early 20th century philosophical setting and to link its concerns to a lifetimes' work as an economist.
Download or read book The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-07-11 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money of 1936 is the last and most important book by the English economist John Maynard Keynes. It created a profound shift in economic thought, giving macroeconomics a central place in economic theory and contributing much of its terminology - the "Keynesian Revolution". It had equally powerful consequences in economic policy, being interpreted as providing theoretical support for government spending in general, and for budgetary deficits, monetary intervention and counter-cyclical policies in particular. It is pervaded with an air of mistrust for the rationality of free-market decision making.Keynes denied that an economy would automatically adapt to provide full employment even in equilibrium, and believed that the volatile and ungovernable psychology of markets would lead to periodic booms and crises. The General Theory is a sustained attack on the 'classical' orthodoxy of its time enlivened by frequent sallies of elegant wit (but weighed down by clumsiness and confusion in its technical passages). It introduced the concepts of the consumption function, the principle of effective demand and liquidity preference, and gave new prominence to the multiplier and the marginal efficiency of capital.
Download or read book The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Repro Knowledgcast Limited. This book was released on 2021-08-16 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money of 1936 is a book by English economist John Maynard Keynes. It caused a profound shift in economic thought, giving macroeconomics a central place in economic theory and contributing much of its terminology - the "Keynesian Revolution". It had equally powerful consequences in economic policy, being interpreted as providing theoretical support for government spending in general, and for budgetary deficits, monetary intervention and counter-cyclical policies in particular. It is pervaded with an air of mistrust for the rationality of free-market decision making. Regarded widely as the cornerstone of Keynesian thought, this book challenged the established classical economics and introduced new concepts. It remains a relevant topic of debate to this day, perhaps more than ever. Given the economic turmoil of recent years, this debate is more heated than ever, between the Keynesian model of economics of Bush and Obama which favors bailouts and other government intervention to try to stabilize the market, and the Austrian school of economics which sees government intervention as detrimental and favors letting the market sort itself out on its own with minimal government interference.
Download or read book The General Theory Of Employment Interest And Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 2022-07-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is a book by English economist John Maynard Keynes and is generally considered to be Keynes' magnum opus, and is largely credited with creating the terminology and shape of modern macroeconomics. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money had equally powerful consequences in economic policy, being interpreted as providing theoretical support for government spending in general, and for budgetary deficits, monetary intervention and counter-cyclical policies in particular. It is pervaded with an air of mistrust for the rationality of free-market decision making. Keynes denied that an economy would automatically adapt to provide full employment even in equilibrium, and believed that the volatile and ungovernable psychology of markets would lead to periodic booms and crises. The General Theory is a sustained attack on the classical economics orthodoxy of its time. It introduced the concepts of the consumption function, the principle of effective demand and liquidity preference, and gave new prominence to the multiplier and the marginal efficiency of capital.
Download or read book Maynard s Revenge written by Lance Taylor and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is now widely agreed that mainstream macroeconomics is irrelevant and that there is need for a more useful and realistic economic analysis that can provide a better understanding of the ongoing global financial and economic crisis. Lance Taylor’s book exposes the unrealistic assumptions of the rational expectations and real business cycle approaches and of mainstream finance theory. It argues that in separating monetary and financial behavior from real behavior, they do not address the ways that consumption, accumulation, and the government play in the workings of the economy. Taylor argues that the ideas of J. M. Keynes and others provide a more useful framework both for understanding the crisis and for dealing with it effectively. Keynes’s basic points were fundamental uncertainty and the absence of Say’s Law. He set up machinery to analyze the macro economy under such circumstances, including the principle of effective demand, liquidity preference, different rules for determining commodity and asset prices, distinct behavioral patterns of different collective actors, and the importance of thinking in terms of complete macro accounting schemes. Economists working in this tradition also worked out growth and cycle models. Employing these ideas throughout Maynard’s Revenge, Taylor provides an analytical narrative about the causes of the crisis, and suggestions for dealing with it.
Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1992-03-07 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part I Fundamental ideas CHAPTER I The Meaning of Probability CHAPTER II Probability in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge CHAPTER III The Measurement of Probabilities CHAPTER IV The Principle of Indifference CHAPTER V Other Methods of Determining Probabilities CHAPTER VI The Weight of Arguments CHAPTER VII Historical Retrospect CHAPTER VIII The Frequency Theory of Probability CHAPTER IX The Constructive Theory of Part I. Summarized PART II Fundamental Theorems CHAPTER X Introductory CHAPTER XI The Theory of Groups, with special reference to Logical Consistence, Inference, and Logical Priority. CHAPTER XII The Definitions and Axioms of Inference and Probability CHAPTER XIII The Fundamental Theorems of Necessary Inference CHAPTER XIV The Fundamental Theorems of Probable Inference CHAPTER XV Numerical Measurement and Approximation of Probabilities CHAPTER XVI Observations on the Theorems of Chapter XIV. and their Developments, including Testimony CHAPTER XVII Some Problems in Inverse Probability, including Averages PART III Induction and Analogy CHAPTER XVIII Introduction CHAPTER XIX The Nature of Argument by Analogy CHAPTER XX The Value of Multiplication of Instances, or Pure Induction CHAPTER XXI The Nature of Inductive Argument Continued CHAPTER XXII The Justification of these Methods CHAPTER XXIII Some Historical Notes on Induction PART IV Some Philosophical Applications of Probability CHAPTER XXIV The Meanings of Objective Chance, and of Randomness CHAPTER XXV Some Problems arising out of the Discussion of Chance CHAPTER XXVI The Application of Probability to Conduct PART V The Foundations of Statistical Inference CHAPTER XXVII The Nature of Statistical Inference CHAPTER XXVIII The Law of Great Numbers CHAPTER XXIX The Use of à priori Probabilities for the Prediction of Statistical Frequency-the Theorems of Bernoulli, Poisson, and Tchebycheff CHAPTER XXX The Mathematical use of Statistical Frequencies for the Determination of Probability à posteriori-the Methods of Laplace CHAPTER XXXI The Inversion of Bernoulli's Theorem CHAPTER XXXII The Inductive use of Statistical Frequencies for the Determination of Probability à posteriori-the Methods of Lexis CHAPTER XXXIII Outline of a Constructive Theory
Download or read book Analogy in Decision Making written by Massimiliano Amarante and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Keynes and His Battles written by The late Gilles Dostaler and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fascinating book is the first to bring together and examine all aspects of the life and work of one of the most influential thinkers of the last century, John Maynard Keynes, whose theses are still hotly debated. It combines, in an accessible, unique and cohesive manner, analytical, biographical and contextual elements from a variety of perspectives. Gilles Dostaler studies in detail the battles that Keynes led on various fronts - politics, philosophy, art, and of course economics - in the pursuit of a single and lifelong goal: to radically transform society to create a better world, a world pacified and freed from the neurotic pursuit of financial wealth and economic rentability, with art at its pinnacle. Containing detailed presentations of the Bloomsbury group and the political history of Great Britain, Keynes and his Battles is an essential reference to this most important of 20th century figures whose central message remains as topical today as it ever was. The study also contains a unique chronology of Keynes¿s life and historical events, portraits of Keynes by his friends and contemporaries, as well as a full bibliography of all his books, chapters contributed to books, journal articles and reviews. Scholars, students and researchers of economics - the history of economic thought in particular - political science, sociology, history, philosophy and the history of arts will find this an absorbing and revealing work. The book should also interest journalists, decision makers in society and all those who are preoccupied by the problems of our time.
