Download or read book Predictability of Weather and Climate written by Tim Palmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.

Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms

Download or read book Principles of Data Assimilation written by Seon Ki Park and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-09-29 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data assimilation is theoretically founded on probability, statistics, control theory, information theory, linear algebra, and functional analysis. At the same time, data assimilation is a very practical subject, given its goal of estimating the posterior probability density function in realistic high-dimensional applications. This puts data assimilation at the intersection between the contrasting requirements of theory and practice. Based on over twenty years of teaching courses in data assimilation, Principles of Data Assimilation introduces a unique perspective that is firmly based on mathematical theories, but also acknowledges practical limitations of the theory. With the inclusion of numerous examples and practical case studies throughout, this new perspective will help students and researchers to competently interpret data assimilation results and to identify critical challenges of developing data assimilation algorithms. The benefit of information theory also introduces new pathways for further development, understanding, and improvement of data assimilation methods.

Download or read book Coastal Engineering 2008 In 5 Volumes Proceedings Of The 31st International Conference written by Jane Mckee Smith and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009-05-05 with total page 5136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings contains papers presented at the 31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering, which has held in Hamburg, Germany (31 August - 5 September 2008). The proceeding is divided into five parts: Waves; Long Waves, Nearshore Currents, and Swash; Sediment Transport and Morphology; Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk; and Coastal Structures. The papers cover a broad range of topics including theory, numerical and physical modeling, field measurements, case studies, design, and management. Coastal Engineering 2008 provides coastal engineers, scientists, and planners, with state-of-the-art information on coastal engineering and coastal processes.

Download or read book East Asian Monsoon written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East Asian summer monsoon has complex space and time structures that are distinct from the South Asian summer monsoon. It covers both subtropics and midlatitudes and its rainfall tends to be concentrated in rain belts that stretch for many thousands of kilometers and affect China, Japan, Korea, and the surrounding areas. The circulation of the East Asian winter monsoon encompasses a large meridional domain with cold air outbreaks emanating from the Siberian high and penetrates deeply into the equatorial Maritime Continent region, where the center of maximum rainfall has long been recognized as a major planetary scale heat source that provides a significant amount of energy which drives the global circulation during boreal winter. The East Asian summer monsoon is also closely linked with the West Pacific summer monsoon. Both are part of the global climate system and are affected by El Nino?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surface temperature variations in the western Pacific and surrounding oceans, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the South Asian summer monsoon. In addition, typhoons in the western North Pacific are most active during the East Asian summer monsoon. They may be considered as a component of the East Asian summer monsoon as they contribute substantial amounts of rainfall and have major impacts on the region. Because of its impacts on nearly one-third of the worldOCOs population and on the global climate system (including effects on the climate change), the study of the East Asian monsoon has received increased attention both in East Asian countries and in the United States. This book presents reviews of recent research on the subject."

Download or read book Precipitation Advances in Measurement Estimation and Prediction written by Silas C. Michaelides and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-02-27 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is the outcome of contributions from 51 scientists who were invited to expose their latest findings on precipitation research and in particular, on the measurement, estimation and prediction of precipitation. The reader is presented with a blend of theoretical, mathematical and technical treatise of precipitation science but also with authentic applications, ranging from local field experiments and country-scale campaigns to multinational space endeavors.

Download or read book Atmospheric Modeling Data Assimilation and Predictability written by Eugenia Kalnay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Download or read book Data Assimilation for Atmospheric Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications Vol II written by Seon Ki Park and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the most recent progress in data assimilation in meteorology, oceanography and hydrology including land surface. It spans both theoretical and applicative aspects with various methodologies such as variational, Kalman filter, ensemble, Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence methods. Besides data assimilation, other important topics are also covered including targeting observation, sensitivity analysis, and parameter estimation. The book will be useful to individual researchers as well as graduate students for a reference in the field of data assimilation.

Download or read book Mountain Meteorology written by C. David Whiteman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-06-01 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mountain Meteorology: Fundamentals and Applications offers first an introduction to the basic principles and concepts of mountain meteorology, then goes on to discuss their application in natural resources management. It includes over two hundred beautiful, full-color photographs, figures, and diagrams, as well as observable indicators of atmospheric processes--such as winds, temperature, and clouds--to facilitate the recognition of weather systems and events for a variety of readers. It is ideal for those who spend time in or near mountains and whose daily activities are affected by weather. As a comprehensive work filled with diverse examples and colorful illustrations, it is essential for professionals, scholars, and students of meteorology.

Download or read book Parameterization Of Atmospheric Convection In 2 Volumes written by Robert S Plant and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-08-21 with total page 1169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precipitating atmospheric convection is fundamental to the Earth's weather and climate. It plays a leading role in the heat, moisture and momentum budgets. Appropriate modelling of convection is thus a prerequisite for reliable numerical weather prediction and climate modelling. The current standard approach is to represent it by subgrid-scale convection parameterization.Parameterization of Atmospheric Convection provides, for the first time, a comprehensive presentation of this important topic. The two-volume set equips readers with a firm grasp of the wide range of important issues, and thorough coverage is given of both the theoretical and practical aspects. This makes the parameterization problem accessible to a wider range of scientists than before. At the same time, by providing a solid bottom-up presentation of convection parameterization, this set is the definitive reference point for atmospheric scientists and modellers working on such problems.Volume 1 of this two-volume set focuses on the basic principles: introductions to atmospheric convection and tropical dynamics, explanations and discussions of key parameterization concepts, and a thorough and critical exploration of the mass-flux parameterization framework, which underlies the methods currently used in almost all operational models and at major climate modelling centres. Volume 2 focuses on the practice, which also leads to some more advanced fundamental issues. It includes: perspectives on operational implementations and model performance, tailored verification approaches, the role and representation of cloud microphysics, alternative parameterization approaches, stochasticity, criticality, and symmetry constraints.

Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.

Download or read book The National Meteorological Center written by National Meteorological Center (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Download or read book Satellite Observations of the Earth s Environment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-07-03 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report addresses the transition of research satellites, instruments, and calculations into operational service for accurately observing and predicting the Earth's environment. These transitions, which take place in large part between NASA and NOAA, are important for maintaining the health, safety, and prosperity of the nation, and for achieving the vision of an Earth Information System in which quantitative information about the complete Earth system is readily available to myriad users. Many transitions have been ad hoc, sometimes taking several years or even decades to occur, and others have encountered roadblocksâ€"lack of long-range planning, resources, institutional or cultural differences, for instanceâ€"and never reached fruition. Satellite Observations of Earth's Environment recommends new structures and methods that will allow seamless transitions from research to practice.