Download or read book Is There a Debt threshold Effect on Output Growth written by Mr.Alexander Chudik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-08 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965- 2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers in the long run.
Download or read book Is There a Debt Threshold Effect on Output Growth written by Alexander Chudik and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with crosssectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965-2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers.
Download or read book Debt and Growth written by Mr.Andrea Pescatori and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-13 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility.
Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Download or read book Achieving Price Financial and Macro Economic Stability in South Africa written by Nombulelo Gumata and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the macro-financial effects of central bank balance sheets, macro-prudential tools, and financial regulation in South Africa. How employment can be maximised while keeping inflation low and stable is examined in relation to the structural changes required to alter the composition of South African bank balance sheets. Quantitative methods and approaches are utilised to highlight the impact of suggested policies. This book aims to outline strategies and policy interventions that can help achieve the National Development Plan in South Africa. It will be of interest to researchers and policymakers working within development economics, African economics, development finance, and financial policy.
Download or read book Debt Inflation and Growth Robust Estimation of Long run Effects in Dynamic Panel Data Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Growth Beyond the Debt Thresholds written by Sine Kontbay and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This empirical study has two objectives both of which are directly related to nonlinear effects of debt on growth: The main objective is to assess the levels of public debt-to-GDP and total external debt-to-GDP ratios above which economic growth is impaired. The second objective is to examine the debt overhang effects on the sources of growth. A large panel data set of developed and developing countries over the period of 1970-2009 is employed to estimate the threshold levels for public and total external debt. The dynamic panel threshold method developed by Kremer et. al (2010) is applied to debt-growth nexus for the first time to estimate the debt thresholds. The method estimates threshold values from the data rather than imposing arbitrary values to study the debt threshold effects as had been done in the literature until now. The level of public debt above which the growth starts being a burden is 69% for high income OECD countries, 47% for middle income countries and 30% for low income. The model is modified to distinguish between the marginal and average debt overhang effects on growth. For high income OECD countries, once public debt-to-GDP exceeds the threshold, each additional unit of public debt lowers growth rate significanlty by about 0.1 percentage point. In middle income countries, however, the public debt overhang effect is observed through a significant slow down in average growth rate rather than a marginal impact on growth. For external debt, the threshold is around 80% for high income OECD countries, 50% for middle income countries, and 70% for low income group. Once these thresholds are exceeded, all countries face with a considerable decrease in their growth rates but the impact of each additional unit of external debt above the threshold is not significant. Therefore, countries' trend-growth is not effected as they accumulate more external debt beyond the threshold. For both public and external debt, the negative realtionship between debt and growth is mostly due to the decrease in capital stock accumulation for high debt levels rather than TFP growth.
Download or read book This Time They Are Different written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.
Download or read book The 90 Public Debt Threshold written by Balász Égert and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Government Debt and Economic Growth written by Vighneswara Swamy and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang A Panel Threshold Analysis written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether a tipping point exists for real GDP growth in Italy above which the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans falls significantly. Estimating a heterogeneous dynamic panel-threshold model with data on 17 Italian regions over the period 1997–2014, we provide evidence for the presence of growth-threshold effects on the NPL ratio in Italy. More specifically, we find that real GDP growth above 1.2 percent, if sustained for a number of years, is associated with a significant decline in the NPLs ratio. Achieving such growth rates requires decisively tackling long-standing structural rigidities and improving the quality of fiscal policy. Given the modest potential growth outlook, however, under which banks are likely to struggle to grow out of their NPL overhang, further policy measures are needed to put the NPL ratio on a firm downward path over the medium term.
Download or read book What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth written by Catherine A. Pattillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the channels through which debt affects growth, specifically whether debt affects growth through factor accumulation or total factor productivity growth. It also tests for the presence of nonlinearities in the effects of debt on the different sources of growth. We use a large panel dataset of 61 developing countries over the period 1969-98. Results indicate that the negative impact of high debt on growth operates both through a strong negative effect on physical capital accumulation and on total factor productivity growth. On average, for high-debt countries, doubling debt will reduce output growth by about 1 percentage point and reduce both per capita physical capital and total factor productivity growth by somewhat less than that. In terms of the contributions to growth, approximately one-third of the effect of debt on growth occurs via physical capital accumulation and two-thirds via total factor productivity growth. The results are generally robust to the use of alternative estimators to control (to different extents) for biases associated with unobserved country-specific effects and the endogeneity of several regressors, particularly the debt variables. In particular, the results are shown to be compatible with a simultaneous significant effect of growth on debt ratios, as suggested by Easterly (2001).
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Economic Growth After Debt Surges written by João Tovar Jalles and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic, and surged further in 2020. The high indebteness raises concerns whether it will undermine future growth prospects. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by examining what happens to economic growth after debt surges. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of debt surges in 190 countries between 1970 and 2020. Our results show that the relationship between debt surges and economic growth are complex. Debt surges tend to be followed by weaker economic growth and persistently lower output. However, this negative relationship does not always hold. Surges in public debt tend to have the most negative impact on future growth prospects. This is particularly the case if the economy is already operating with a large positive output gap. Debt surges also tend to be followed by weaker economic growth if the initial debt levels are high, especially for private debt surges. Our results also show how debt surges impact future growth. Public debt surges are associated with especially weaker private and public investment, although both private and public consumption are also negatively affected. Surges in corporate debt are followed by lower private and public investment.
Download or read book Public Debt and Economic Growth written by Alfred Greiner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-24 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Starting point of this book is the observation that an increase in public debt must be accompanied by a rise in the primary surplus of the government to guarantee sustainability of public debt. The book first elaborates on that principle from a theoretical point of view and then tests whether empirical evidence for that rule can be found. Additional tests are implemented to gain further evidence on sustainability of public debt. In order to allow for time varying coefficients penalized spline estimations are performed. The theoretical chapters present endogenous growth models and assume that the primary surplus rises as public debt increases so that sustainability of public debt is given. Implications of public deficits and debt are studied assuming full employment and for unemployment. The conclusion summarizes the findings and compares the results of the different models. Finally, policy implications are given showing how governments should deal with high public debt to GDP ratios.
Download or read book Debt and Growth written by Weiyi Weng and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation takes a pure time-series approach to investigate the current debate sparked by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) on whether there is a public debt threshold beyond which debt has a significantly detrimental effect on growth. To abstract from the cross-country heterogeneity, this dissertation focuses on one country, the United States, thereby complementing the literature of panel studies on the debt-growth nonlinear relationship.
Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
