Download or read book Is Cognitive Bias Really Present in Analyst Forecasts The Role of Investor Sentiment written by Pilar Corredor and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.
Download or read book Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell Side Analysts Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy written by Beverly R. Walther and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Download or read book Handbook of Research on Behavioral Finance and Investment Strategies Decision Making in the Financial Industry written by Copur, Zeynep and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2015-01-31 with total page 559 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an ever-changing economy, market specialists strive to find new ways to evaluate the risks and potential reward of economic ventures by assessing the importance of human reaction during the economic planning process. The Handbook of Research on Behavioral Finance and Investment Strategies: Decision Making in the Financial Industry presents an interdisciplinary, comparative, and competitive analysis of the thought processes and planning necessary for individual and corporate economic management. This publication is an essential reference source for professionals, practitioners, and managers working in the field of finance, as well as researchers and academicians interested in an interdisciplinary approach to combine financial management, sociology, and psychology.
Download or read book Quantifying Cognitive Biases in Analyst Earnings Forecasts written by Geoffrey C. Friesen and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a formal model of analyst earnings forecasts that discriminates between rational behavior and that induced by cognitive biases. In the model, analysts are Bayesians who issue sequential forecasts that combine new information with the information contained in past forecasts. The model offers a number of testable implications that allow us to detect cognitive biases, and also to quantify their magnitude. We estimate the model and find strong evidence that analysts are overconfident about the precision of their own information and also subject to cognitive dissonance bias. We examine the influence of the relative amount of private information as a measure of ambiguity on the magnitude of the biases. The variation in overconfidence between the low- and high-ambiguity groups is consistent with the well-established variations documented in the psychological literature. We also demonstrate a relationship between book-to-market ratios and cognitive bias.
Download or read book Responsible Business in a Changing World written by Belén Díaz Díaz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-05-11 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the current state of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) from an international perspective, the goal being to share ideas and visions for a sustainable future and to provide useful guidelines for academics, practitioners and policymakers in the context of the 2030 “Agenda for Sustainable Development” released by the United Nations. Research on CSR has evolved considerably over the last three decades. However, there are still many unanswered questions concerning the sustainability of business in an increasingly changing world, for example: If most companies consider CSR to be valuable to their organizations, why do only 15% of them systematically implement Social Responsibility initiatives? If CSR has been found to be profitable for companies, why are they so reluctant to develop an active, internal CSR policy? Why are there such significant differences in CSR adoption from country to country? Why does it take a huge crisis to make politicians react and regulate certain core CSR issues? This contributed volume answers these questions, presenting a wealth of case studies and new approaches in the process.
Download or read book The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market written by Ling Cen and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ldquo;Anchoringrdquo; describes the fact that in forming numerical estimates of uncertain quantities, adjustments in assessments away from an arbitrary initial value are often insufficient. We show that this cognitive bias has significant economic consequences for the efficiency of financial markets. We find that analysts make optimistic (pessimistic) forecasts when a firm's forecast earnings per share (FEPS) is lower (higher) than the industry median. Further, firms with FEPS greater (lower) than the industry median experience abnormally high (low) future stock returns, particularly around subsequent earnings announcement dates. Finally, split firms experience greater positive forecast revisions, larger forecast errors, and larger negative earnings surprises after a stock split compared to which did not split their stocks, especially for firms with a low FEPS relative to the industry median.
Download or read book Incentives Or Irrationality International Evidence from the Impact of Individualism on Analyst Forecast Bias written by Claudia Qi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a unique dataset that identifies the locations of 19,832 financial analysts covering 21,885 firms from 49 countries during 1996-2013, we find that individualism of analysts' country of residence is negatively associated with their earnings forecast optimism and positively associated with their forecast accuracy. Using multiple proxies for economic incentives and cognitive biases, we find that individualism affects analyst forecast optimism and accuracy through the economic incentives that analysts face, rather than their cognitive biases (irrationality). Our results highlight the importance for regulators and investors to factor in culture values when battling against biased analyst research.
Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Management Earnings Forecast Bias written by Helen Hurwitz and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers' annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers' annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low-sentiment periods than during normal-sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low-sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment-related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relation between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.
Download or read book The Best of Times the Worst of Times written by Yuk Ying (Candie) Chang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mood-induced optimism, cognitive inaccuracy, and distraction can affect analyst forecasts. This study compares and contrasts these influences. The novelty of our approach is that we first show that these behavioural biases have different implications for analysts' forecast errors conditioned on the errors being positive and negative. We then use proxies for positive and negative moods to empirically test the support for each of these biases. Consistent with cognitive precision, we find that analysts make less (more) accurate forecasts when they are in positive (negative) moods. We further show that these results are driven neither by sentiment associated with contemporaneous economic or market conditions nor by under- or over-reaction to more bad news released on days immediately before weekends or holidays.
Download or read book Are Markets Rational written by Seung-Woog Kwag and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Biased Forecasts or Biased Earnings The Role of Reported Earnings in Explaining Apparent Bias and Over Underreaction in Analysts Earnings Forecasts written by Jeffery S. Abarbanell and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We demonstrate the role of three empirical properties of cross-sectional distributions of analysts' forecast errors in generating evidence pertinent to three important and heretofore separately analyzed phenomena studied in the analyst earnings forecast literature: purported bias (intentional or unintentional) in analysts' earnings forecasts, forecaster over/underreaction to information in prior realizations of economic variables, and positive serial correlation in analysts' forecast errors. The empirical properties of interest include: the existence of two statistically influential asymmetries found in the tail and the middle of typical forecast error distributions, the fact that a relatively small number of observations comprise these asymmetries and, the unusual character of the reported earnings benchmark used in the calculation of the forecast errors that fall into the two asymmetries that is associated with firm recognition of unexpected accruals. We discuss competing explanations for the presence of these properties of forecast error distributions and their implications for conclusions about analyst forecast rationality that are pertinent to researchers, regulators, and investors concerned with the incentives and judgments of analysts.Previously titled quot;Biased Forecasts or Biased Earnings? The Role of Earnings Management in Explaining Apparent Optimism and Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecastsquot.
Download or read book Investor Sentiment Effect in European Stock Markets written by Elena Ferrer and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2017-04-26 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: La presente obra se adentra en el estudio del potencial efecto del sentimiento del inversor sobre la valoración de activos, su efecto en los pronósticos de beneficios y recomendaciones de los analistas y su impacto sobre los activos derivados. Abarca el efecto del sentimiento del inversor en cuatro de los mercados europeos más importantes, Alemania, España, Francia y Reino Unido, mercados con características diferentes, en cuanto a tamaño, tipología del inversor y funcionamiento, lo que permite extraer importantes conclusiones adicionales.
Download or read book BioRevolution A Promising Strategy written by Sri Krishna Arts and Science College and published by Archers & Elevators Publishing House. This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Your Money and Your Brain written by Jason Zweig and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2007-09-04 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on the latest scientific research, Jason Zweig shows what happens in your brain when you think about money and tells investors how to take practical, simple steps to avoid common mistakes and become more successful. What happens inside our brains when we think about money? Quite a lot, actually, and some of it isn’t good for our financial health. In Your Money and Your Brain, Jason Zweig explains why smart people make stupid financial decisions—and what they can do to avoid these mistakes. Zweig, a veteran financial journalist, draws on the latest research in neuroeconomics, a fascinating new discipline that combines psychology, neuroscience, and economics to better understand financial decision making. He shows why we often misunderstand risk and why we tend to be overconfident about our investment decisions. Your Money and Your Brain offers some radical new insights into investing and shows investors how to take control of the battlefield between reason and emotion. Your Money and Your Brain is as entertaining as it is enlightening. In the course of his research, Zweig visited leading neuroscience laboratories and subjected himself to numerous experiments. He blends anecdotes from these experiences with stories about investing mistakes, including confessions of stupidity from some highly successful people. Then he draws lessons and offers original practical steps that investors can take to make wiser decisions. Anyone who has ever looked back on a financial decision and said, “How could I have been so stupid?” will benefit from reading this book.
