Download or read book Investment Creation and Real Exchange Rates in a Model with Search Frictions written by Gita Gopinath and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign Investment is modeled as the outcome of a search process that emphasizes the distinction between investment creation and investment destruction processes which underlie net flows. The optimal q is shown to equal the difference between a naive net present value calculation and the call option of further search. The investment mechanism is embedded in a two-sector dynamic small open-economy model to derive the response of the economy to a capital market liberalization. The presence of an option value to search is shown to generate dynamics in investment inflows, which when combined with the saving-production decisions of households, generates co-movement in real exchange rates, consumption, current account deficits and non-traded sector output which closely resembles the experience of several Latin-American countries, starting in the late nineteen eighties. The search approach to investment contrasts with the standard q-theory approach which generates counterfactual predictions in this framework. Lastly, the paper evaluates the effect of cyclical shocks on direct investment decisions and provides an argument for the observed stability of these flows.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Foreign Portfolio Investment written by Patrick Roll Bloom and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1 uses real interest rates to show that the long-term real exchange rate and a risk premium are more volatile than the nominal exchange rate for four developing countries. Chapter 2 finds country-level effects of foreign portfolio investment in 18 developing countries and proposes a channel for real exchange rate volatility driven by foreign portfolio investment. Chapter 3 shows that there are plant-level productivity gains in Chile from small levels and small increases in foreign ownership typical of portfolio investment. Nominal exchange rate changes can be decomposed into inflation differentials and real components, each having different causes and consequences. Although we have explanations for each component, the relative importance of the long-run real exchange rate has previously not been quantified. Chapter 1 uses inflation-linked bond data for Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey to quantify the contribution of those components to exchange rate changes against the United States. We find that the long-term expected real exchange rate plus its risk premium is even more volatile than the nominal exchange rate. Volatility and unforecastability of real exchange rates is a fundamental puzzle of international economics, and these features are even more pronounced in developing countries. In chapter 2, we present a new fact, that inward portfolio investment in equities predicts the extensive margin of imports in 18 developing countries. With this we build a purely real model in which foreign investors finance new intermediate inputs and increase productivity in the tradeable goods sector. We express the Balassa-Samuelson determined real exchange rate as a function of foreign investment. We use the established fact that investors in developed countries exhibit positive feedback or operate under portfolio constraints and show how therefore the real exchange rate reacts positively to equity prices. We test and confirm the prediction of the model that equity portfolio investment predicts exchange rates at quarterly frequencies. We also confirm that the extensive margin of imports comoves with the real exchange rate at annual frequencies, and do not reject that equity portfolio investment acts through this channel only. In chapter 3, we measure the effect of foreign ownership on the productivity of Chilean manufacturers between 1998 and 2001. Total factor productivity is measured at the plant level using multiple alternative methods. Both the level of foreign ownership and increases in foreign ownership are significant predictors of productivity. These effects remain when restricting the sample to plants with low foreign ownership and small changes in foreign ownership, showing the importance of foreign portfolio investment on productivity. A non-parametric fit suggests that low levels of foreign ownership are as significant as larger stakes. When controlling for endogeneity in the foreign investment decision by instrumenting with total developed countries' portfolio outflows the positive effects on productivity remain. Finally we show that foreign ownership predicts that firms source more of their intermediate inputs from abroad.
Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Download or read book The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky price Models written by Enrique Martínez-García and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Download or read book Economics for Investment Decision Makers written by Christopher D. Piros and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-05 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economics background investors need to interpret global economic news distilled to the essential elements: A tool of choice for investment decision-makers. Written by a distinguished academics and practitioners selected and guided by CFA Institute, the world’s largest association of finance professionals, Economics for Investment Decision Makers is unique in presenting microeconomics and macroeconomics with relevance to investors and investment analysts constantly in mind. The selection of fundamental topics is comprehensive, while coverage of topics such as international trade, foreign exchange markets, and currency exchange rate forecasting reflects global perspectives of pressing investor importance. Concise, plain-English introduction useful to investors and investment analysts Relevant to security analysis, industry analysis, country analysis, portfolio management, and capital market strategy Understand economic news and what it means All concepts defined and simply explained, no prior background in economics assumed Abundant examples and illustrations Global markets perspective
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Levels Productivity and Demand Shocks written by Menzie David Chinn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and government spending for 14 OECD countries, using recently developed panel cointegration tests. The results indicate that under certain assumptions it is easier to detect cointegration in panel data than in the available time series; moreover, the rate of reversion to long-run equilibrium is estimated with greater precision. Using the model augmented by oil prices, we find that in 1991 (the last year productivity data are available) there is less overvaluation of the U.S. dollar than that implied by a naive version of purchasing power parity.
Download or read book Persistent Real Exchange Rates written by Alok Johri and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Eurostat OECD Methodological Manual on Purchasing Power Parities 2012 Edition written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-30 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This manual gives a complete, detailed and up-to-date description of the Eurostat-OECD PPP Programme, including its organisation, the various surveys carried out by participating countries and the ways PPPs are calculated and disseminated. It also provides guidance on the use of PPPs.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book The Macroeconomics of Self fulfilling Prophecies written by Roger E. A. Farmer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Farmer argues for the future of macroeconomics as a branch ofapplied general equilibrium theory. His main theme is thatmacroeconomics is best viewed as the study of equilibrium environmentsin which the welfare theorems break down.
Download or read book Open Economy Macroeconomics written by Helmut Frisch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The integration of market economies is one of the most remarkable features of international economics, which has important implications for macroeconomic performance in open economies. Equally important is the declining relevance of the real versus the monetary theory dichotomy. These papers focus on those aspects of monetary policy which relate to credibility and non-neutrality; the domestic adjustment to foreign shocks; the interdependence of open economies and their strategic interactions. An important section is also devoted to the innovative modelling of exchange rate dynamics.
Download or read book Currency Politics written by Jeffry A. Frieden and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2014-12-28 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The politics surrounding exchange rate policies in the global economy The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices. Exchange rates are set, either directly or indirectly, by government policy. Exchange rates are also central to the global economy, for they profoundly influence all international economic activity. Despite the critical role of exchange rate policy, there are few definitive explanations of why governments choose the currency policies they do. Filled with in-depth cases and examples, Currency Politics presents a comprehensive analysis of the politics surrounding exchange rates. Identifying the motivations for currency policy preferences on the part of industries seeking to influence politicians, Jeffry Frieden shows how each industry's characteristics—including its exposure to currency risk and the price effects of exchange rate movements—determine those preferences. Frieden evaluates the accuracy of his theoretical arguments in a variety of historical and geographical settings: he looks at the politics of the gold standard, particularly in the United States, and he examines the political economy of European monetary integration. He also analyzes the politics of Latin American currency policy over the past forty years, and focuses on the daunting currency crises that have frequently debilitated Latin American nations, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. With an ambitious mix of narrative and statistical investigation, Currency Politics clarifies the political and economic determinants of exchange rate policies.
Download or read book International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation written by Jose De Gregorio and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998 written by Ben Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goals of the annual NBER Macroeconomics Conference are to present, extend, and apply frontier work in macroeconomics and to stimulate work by macroeconomists in policy issues. Each paper in the Annual is followed by comments and discussion.
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
