Download or read book International Trade Fluctuations Uncertainty and Economic Growth written by Cristián Morán V. and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Download or read book International Trade Distortions and Long Run Economic Growth written by Jong-Wha Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-11-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The links between trade and growth are examined in a neoclassical model of an open economy in which domestic production requires both domestic and imported inputs. The model shows that trade distortions induced by such government policies as tariffs and exchange controls generate cross-country divergences in growth rates and in per capita income over a long transitional period. The empirical results confirm that tariff rates and black market premia, interacting with an estimate of the share of free trade imports, have significant negative effects on the growth rate of per capita income across countries in the orders of magnitude predicted by the model.
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade written by William C. Brainard and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Trade and Economic Growth written by Hendrik Van den Berg and published by M.E. Sharpe. This book was released on 2007 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Serving as a teaching tool for courses in international economics, economic growth, and economic development at both the undergraduate and graduate levels, this book focuses on the dynamic long-run relationship between trade and economic growth.
Download or read book Trade Liberalization written by Romain Wacziarg and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compelling two-volume collection presents the major literary contributions to the economic analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on growth, productivity, labor market outcomes and economic inequality. Examining the classical theories that stress gains from trade stemming from comparative advantage, the selection also comprises more recent theories of imperfect competition, where any potential gains from trade can stem from competitive effects or the international transmission of knowledge. Empirical contributions provide evidence regarding the explanatory power of these various theories, including work on the effects of trade openness on economic growth, wages, and income inequality, as well as evidence on the effects of trade on firm productivity, entry and exit. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, the collection will to be an invaluable research resource for academics, practitioners and those drawn to this fascinating topic.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Download or read book Government Size and Intersectoral Income Fluctuation written by Daehaeng Kim and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-04 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this paper proposes simple models and supportive empirical evidence for the causal relations between economic uncertainty and government size in the open economy setting. Key empirical findings include: (1) a larger government reduces economic uncertainty, and, at the same time, (2) an economy facing higher uncertainty has a larger government. However, (3) the government tends to resort to redistributive policies to reduce the uncertainty, while (4) government direct spending is also an effective option for the purpose. The study also finds that (5) cross-sectional measure of economic uncertainty tends to rise when a country becomes more open to international trade.
Download or read book Economic Growth in Latin America written by Mr.Jose De Gregorio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-07-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies growth determinants in 12 Latin American countries during the period 1950-85. In a simple growth accounting framework, the share of labor in income is found to be lower in the sample group than in developed countries, while factor productivity growth accounts for a larger proportion of growth in the fastest growing countries in the sample. Using panel data, macroeconomic stability is found to play, in addition to investment (physical and human), a crucial role in growth. To a lesser extent, growth is negatively correlated with government consumption and political instability. The terms of trade appear to have no significant effect on growth.
Download or read book The Slowdown in Global Trade A Symptom of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-15 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
Download or read book Economic Growth and International Trade with Capital Goods written by Rainer Maurer and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The process of globalization is increasing the integration of all kinds of economic activity. Meanwhile, the international division of labor has reached levels unprecedented in history. The neoclassical theories of international trade predict positive net welfare effects of international economic integration; yet, in so doing, they primarily focus on static welfare effects. Early critics of the "free trade paradigm", like Friedrich List, hold that this focus on static welfare effects is a major shortcoming of these theories. New developments in the theory of economic growth make it possible now to analyze the dramatic effects of international trade on economic development and to develop new theories. In the first part of his book, Maurer derives different sets of conditions necessary for international trade to have a positive or negative effect on economic development. In the second part, he estimates the effects of international trade with capital goods on economic growth: the effect imports of capital goods may have on the transition towards steady state and the effect the international trade with capital goods may have on total factor productivity growth. The results indicate that capital goods imports have a significant positive effect on both sources of economic growth.
Download or read book Unequal We Stand written by Jonathan Heathcote and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.
Download or read book Dynamics of International Trade and Economy written by Rajagopal and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses a research analysis based on survey of literature and statistical analysis of the data available from secondary sources and argues the strategic partnership model developed by analysing the functional gap-map in reference to the political, economic, legal and trade related factors.
Download or read book Trade and Uncertainty written by Dennis Novy and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or foreign suppliers, but with higher costs in the latter case. Due to fixed costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of intermediates. We show that in response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally adjust their inventory policy by cutting their orders of foreign intermediates disproportionately strongly. In the aggregate, this response leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic economic activity. We confront the model with newly-compiled monthly aggregate U.S. import data and industrial production data going back to 1962, and also with disaggregated data back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and the cyclical behavior of international trade.
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
