Download or read book Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade written by E. Grinols and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2013-07-04 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers the impact of uncertainty on traditional theories of international trade.
Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Download or read book Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade written by Earl L. Grinols and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Theory of International Trade Under Uncertainty written by Elhanan Helpman and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Theory of International Trade Under Uncertainty analyzes international trade in goods and securities in the presence of uncertainty using an integrated general equilibrium framework that recognizes the dependence of markets for goods on financial markets and vice versa. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated by means of applications to questions such as the effects of international trade on resource allocation, tariff policy, and intervention in financial capital markets. Results which are important for theoretical as well as policy oriented applications are presented. Comprised of 11 chapters, this volume begins with an introduction to some of the fundamental elements of the deterministic Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin theories of international trade. Relevant elements from the theory of decision making under uncertainty are then discussed, along with the behavior of firms and consumers-investors in an economy with stock markets. Subsequent chapters focus on problems of commercial policy; gains from trade in goods and securities; and issues of intervention in financial capital markets. The book concludes by describing a dynamic model of international trade that contains an infinite horizon and takes into account the trade-off between present period consumption and savings. An example that illustrates an equilibrium structure of the dynamic model is presented. This monograph is intended for economists who are interested in international trade or international finance, including graduate students who specialize in these fields.
Download or read book Trade and Uncertainty written by Dennis Novy and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or foreign suppliers, but with higher costs in the latter case. Due to fixed costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of intermediates. We show that in response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally adjust their inventory policy by cutting their orders of foreign intermediates disproportionately strongly. In the aggregate, this response leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic economic activity. We confront the model with newly-compiled monthly aggregate U.S. import data and industrial production data going back to 1962, and also with disaggregated data back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and the cyclical behavior of international trade.
Download or read book The Pure Theory of International Trade under Uncertainty written by Raveendra N. Batra and published by Springer. This book was released on 1975-06-18 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Download or read book Economie de L incertain Et de L information written by Jean-Jacques Laffont and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics.
Download or read book Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.
Download or read book Multiple Uncertainty Forward futures Markets and International Trade written by Jean-Marie Viaene and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä.
Download or read book The Great Trade Collapse Causes Consequences and Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2009 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Theory of International Trade Under Uncertainty written by Raveendra N. Batra and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Theory of International Trade Under Terms of Trade Uncertainty written by Sandwip Kumar Das and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Trade Policies in the Era of Globalization written by Co?kun zer, Ahu and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2019-07-05 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though globalization has removed commercial walls between countries and implemented new international trade policies, trade barriers still exist. Due to the various political barriers surrounding other countries, the future of world trade has become uncertain. Understanding these barriers and their implications is imperative to implementing successful foreign trade policies. International Trade Policies in the Era of Globalization provides relevant theoretical frameworks and the latest empirical research findings on international trade and improves the understanding of the strategic role of trade policies and their importance in the global economy. The content within this publication contains reports on global trade, trade wars, and foreign policy. This research is designed for policymakers, government officials, economists, business professionals, researchers, and international business students.
Download or read book Three Topics in the Theory of International Trade distribution Welfare and Uncertainty written by Murray C. Kemp and published by Amsterdam : North-Holland Publishing Company ; New York : American Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1976 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Topics in the Theory of International Trade written by Murray Chilvers Kemp and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
