Download or read book International Interest Rate Differentials as Behavior Towards Exchange Rate Expectations written by Michael G. Porter and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Determinants of an exchange rate written by Ralph Johann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2008-09-09 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,3, California State University, Fullerton, course: International Economics, language: English, abstract: This paper will discuss the general relationship between the two major currencies of the world: the US-Dollar and the Euro and the determinants for the exchange rate fluctuations since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of Europe during the period between January 1999 and November 2005. Since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999 this relationship was first characterized by a sharp depreciation of the Euro followed by a three year lasting appreciation of the same that passed over in a slight depreciation again from the beginning of 2005 in the long run.1 This paper will first focus on the History of the international currency exchange system from the 19th century until the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1973 and on the history of the currency system in the European community. It will then discuss the general determinants of exchange rates in the short and long run. It will be pointed out that in the short run interest rate differentials and expectations of international portfolio investors matter and in the long run the economic fundamentals such as inflation rates and GDP growth rates of either economic region are the main factors for the behaviour of the exchange rate. In this context the theories of the Law of one price and the purchasing power parity are introduced. In the third part of the paper the exchange rate theories introduced in the previous part are applied to the €-$ exchange rate in the time period between 1999 and 2005. Thus, the short term and long term factors are used to explain the relationship between the two currencies in this period. Finally, the last part serves as a conclusion.
Download or read book Nominal Exchange Rates and Nominal Interest Rate Differentials written by Mr.Francisco Nadal De Simone and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines some unsettled theoretical and empirical issues regarding the relationship between nominal exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides a model for the behavior of exchange rates in the long run, where interest rates are determined in the bond market. The model predicts that an increase in the interest rate differential appreciates the home currency. We test the model for the U.S. dollar against the Deutsche mark, the British pound, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar. The first two pairs of exchange rates—for which purchasing power parity seems to hold—display a strong relationship with interest rate differentials.
Download or read book Determinants of an Exchange Rate written by Ralph Johann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2008-09 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,3, California State University, Fullerton, course: International Economics, 8 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This paper will discuss the general relationship between the two major currencies of the world: the US-Dollar and the Euro and the determinants for the exchange rate fluctuations since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of Europe during the period between January 1999 and November 2005. Since the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999 this relationship was first characterized by a sharp depreciation of the Euro followed by a three year lasting appreciation of the same that passed over in a slight depreciation again from the beginning of 2005 in the long run.1 This paper will first focus on the History of the international currency exchange system from the 19th century until the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1973 and on the history of the currency system in the European community. It will then discuss the general determinants of exchange rates in the short and long run. It will be pointed out that in the short run interest rate differentials and expectations of international portfolio investors matter and in the long run the economic fundamentals such as inflation rates and GDP growth rates of either economic region are the main factors for the behaviour of the exchange rate. In this context the theories of the Law of one price and the purchasing power parity are introduced. In the third part of the paper the exchange rate theories introduced in the previous part are applied to the -$ exchange rate in the time period between 1999 and 2005. Thus, the short term and long term factors are used to explain the relationship between the two currencies in this period. Finally, the last part serves as a conclusion.
Download or read book French German Interest Rate Differentials and Time Varying Realignment Risk written by Mr.Francesco Caramazza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-01-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents’ realignment expectations. Time-varying expected rates of realignment are estimated in two ways: one, by adjusting short-term euromarket interest rate differentials for the expected rate of change of the FF/DM exchange rate within the EMS fluctuation band and two, by the differential in the yield on long-term government bonds. The behavior of the exchange rate within the band is found to be consistent with mean reversion and the expected change is nontrivial. Thus, by filtering out the expected mean reversion within the band from short-term interest rate differentials more precise measures of expected changes in the central parity are obtained. Realignment expectations are found to be closely related to the evolution of fundamental economic variables and, for shorter horizons, the position of the franc in the fluctuation band.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle written by Falkmar Butgereit and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2010 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Still after more than thirty years of free floating exchange rates, large parts of exchange rate dynamics remain a puzzle. As this book shows, much progress has been made in explaining exchange rate movements over longer horizons. It also shows, however, that short-run movements are far more challenging to explain. The book is based upon a variety of papers, many of them released recently. A key aspiration of the literature has always been not only to explain past exchange rate behavior but also to forecast out of sample and to compare it to the simple random walk outcome. Here some development has been made after Meese and Rogoff's (1983) truculent verdict of the performance of common exchange rate models. By means of empirical analysis and descriptive statistics this book further supports the established long-run relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals such as expected productivity growth, real GDP growth, domestic investment, interest rates, inflation, government spending, and current account balances. It finds that these fundamentals affect the exchange rate to varying degrees over time. Turning to short-term exchange rate dynamics, it turns out that a different set of forces is at play. The key to explaining short-run movements is to be found in an extensive micro-foundation that factors in a pronounced heterogeneity among market participants and information asymmetries, as well as the possibility of sudden shifts in sentiment, beliefs, and the degree of risk aversion. Promising results have been obtained by order-flow analysis and high frequency data. Also, the consideration of chartism and speculators facilitates understanding for otherwise puzzling exchange rate movements. The last attempt to tackle the understanding of exchange rate behavior is the use of frequency domain analysis and in particular spectral analysis which tries to track down any cyclical patterns in the various moments of time series. And as we shall see forex indeed incorpor
Download or read book Essays in International Money and Finance written by James R Lothian and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2017-06-29 with total page 820 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of the book is to make the author's scholarly research in the areas of international finance and monetary economics easily accessible to other researchers and students. The articles included in the book span a wide range. The topics include the behavior of the three key relations in international finance, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and real interest rate equality, the relation between money and other key economic variables, financial globalization and the transmission of economic disturbances internationally.
Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Peter Isard and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-09-28 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes and evaluates the literature on exchange rate economics. It provides a wide-ranging survey, with background on the history of international monetary regimes and the institutional characteristics of foreign exchange markets, an overview of the development of conceptual and empirical models of exchange rate behavior, and perspectives on the key issues that policymakers confront in deciding whether, and how, to try to stabilize exchange rates. The treatment of most topics is reasonably compact, with extensive references to the literature for those desiring to pursue individual topics further. The level of exposition is relatively easy to comprehend; the historical and institutional material (part I) and the discussion of policy issues (part III) contain no equations or technical notation, while the chapters on models of exchange rate behavior (part II) are written at a level intelligible to first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates. The book will enlighten both students and policymakers, and should also serve as a valuable reference for many research economists.
Download or read book The Short Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates written by Georgios Katechos and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The understanding of the mechanism determining exchange rates is still an unsolved puzzle in the field of international economics. In the search for the underlying causes of the failure of existing approaches to explain a large proportion of short term exchange rate movements, our review of methodology literature revealed that a significant number of scholars consider the methodological approach employed by mainstream economics as a main cause for the disappointing result of established approaches. In particular, the excessive use of formal modelling and quantitative data as well as the use of oversimplified assumptions has been criticized. In response to this critique we chose to use a more pluralistic approach in our research methodology by employing both qualitative as well as quantitative data analysis. For the analysis of qualitative data, we employed an approach based on grounded theory principles, where we analyze Reuters Foreign exchange market reports. The findings of the qualitative data analysis show that, based on market practitioners commentary, there are two predominant variables affecting exchange rates. First, expectations on interest rate changes appears to be a major variable affecting currency value. An upward revision of interest rate expectations usually suggests an increase in the value of the currency concerned and vice versa. Second major variable affecting exchange rates appear to be global equity returns. In contrast to interest rates, which is a country specific variable, global equity returns is a global variable affecting currencies based on their relative interest rate levels and safe haven attributes. In particular, it is suggested that higher yielding currencies' value is positive related to global equity returns, while low/lower yielding and safe haven currencies' value is negatively related to global equity returns. The empirical test we performed to explore the relationship between exchange rates and global equity returns suggest that they are indeed linked. The sign of the relationship depends on the characteristics of the currencies examined. When equity prices increase, currencies with higher interest rates tend to appreciate, whereas currencies with lower interest rates tend to depreciate and vice versa. In addition, the strength of the relationship depends to some extent on relative interest differentials. A stronger relationship is observed when interest differentials are relatively large, while the explanatory power of the model is reduced when interest rate differentials are relatively narrow. Our study presents evidence on the role of stock markets in exchange rate determination which is considerable different to the focus of current theory. Whereas current research focuses on stock market's relative stock market returns in the respective countries, the findings of this thesis suggests that global stock market returns affect exchange rate movements based on differentiated characteristics of different currencies. Another important contribution of this thesis is that we illustrate the complexity of interactions and links among different variables. For example, whereas interest changes were seen as positively correlated to the home currency value, the relationship was seen as being reversed because of the possible effect of higher interest rates on the subprime crisis. Another example of complex links is the relationship between exchange rates and equity markets. For example, whereas the USD effective exchange rate was not related equity returns during the initial stages of the subprime crises, the strength of the relationship increased significantly when the crisis escalated and the demand for USD increased due to safe haven flows.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Theory and Practice written by John F. Bilson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume grew out of a National Bureau of Economic Research conference on exchange rates held in Bellagio, Italy, in 1982. In it, the world's most respected international monetary economists discuss three significant new views on the economics of exchange rates - Rudiger Dornbusch's overshooting model, Jacob Frenkel's and Michael Mussa's asset market variants, and Pentti Kouri's current account/portfolio approach. Their papers test these views with evidence from empirical studies and analyze a number of exchange rate policies in use today, including those of the European Monetary System.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-06-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments written by Jacob Frenkel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1984-01-01 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights exchange rate movements and adjustment in financial markets. This paper develops a model of portfolio behavior in which it is assumed that market participants act as if they always expected exchange rates to move in line with expected inflation differentials. In the solution of this model, exchange rate movements are determined by real interest rate differentials and the cumulated balance of external payments. Two important empirical features distinguish this model from most other models based on the asset-market approach to exchange rate determination. The paper gives evidence that comparisons between these estimates and alternative models broadly support the model developed here. A principal conclusion is that interest rate differentials do have a clearer short-run relationship to exchange rate changes than to exchange rate levels.
Download or read book A Survey The Theory of International Interest and Exchange Rates Working Paper 162 written by Gunter Dufey and Arvind K. Jain and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics written by Martin D D Evans and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-06-28 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects my scholarly research on the behavior of foreign exchange rates conducted over the past twenty-five years. The collection includes papers that study the behavior of exchange rates from the traditional macroeconomic and newer microstructure perspectives. The former perspective considers the linkages between the macro economy and currency prices in an effort to understand the behavior of exchange rates over quarters, years and decades. By contrast, the microstructure perspective considers how the details of currency trading affect how macroeconomic information becomes embedded in currency prices, a process which drives exchange-rates over intraday horizons. The book also contains papers with a hybrid perspective that consider the details of currency trading and macroeconomic linkages in an effort to understand exchange-rate dynamics across all horizons.
Download or read book Interest Rates in Mexico written by Hoe Ee Khor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how interest rates on domestic financial assets in Mexico are linked to expectations of exchange rate changes and to perceptions about the default risks contained in Mexico’s external debt. It is shown that the interest rate differentials between peso- and U.S. dollar-denominated domestic assets reflected some concerns about the exchange rate policy during the period under study. In addition, the evidence suggests that the interest rate on a U.S. dollar-denominated Mexican domestic asset is linked (i.e., cointegrated) to the yield implicit in the secondary market price for external debt issued by Mexico.
