Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Download or read book On the Duration of Civil War written by Paul Collier and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.

Download or read book Identifying the Complex Causes of Civil War written by Atin Basuchoudhary and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-25 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book uses machine-learning to identify the causes of conflict from among the top predictors of conflict. This methodology elevates some complex causal pathways that cause civil conflict over others, thus teasing out the complex interrelationships between the most important variables that cause civil conflict. Success in this realm will lead to scientific theories of conflict that will be useful in preventing and ending civil conflict. After setting out a current review of the literature and a case for using machine learning to analyze and predict civil conflict, the authors lay out the data set, important variables, and investigative strategy of their methodology. The authors then investigate institutional causes, economic causes, and sociological causes for civil conflict, and how that feeds into their model. The methodology provides an identifiable pathway for specifying causal models. This book will be of interest to scholars in the areas of economics, political science, sociology, and artificial intelligence who want to learn more about leveraging machine learning technologies to solve problems and who are invested in preventing civil conflict.

Download or read book International Commodity Price Shocks Democracy and External Debt written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.

Download or read book International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries written by Isha Agrawal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.

Download or read book Price Wars written by Rupert Russell and published by Doubleday. This book was released on 2022-02-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fascinating, groundbreaking exposé of how commodity traders in New York and London have destabilized societies all over the world, leaving the most vulnerable at the mercy of hunger, chaos, and war. • With a new Afterword for the ebook. For Rupert Russell, the Brexit vote was only the latest shock in a decade full of them: the unstoppable war in Syria, huge migrant flows into Europe, beheadings in Iraq, children placed in cages on the U.S. border. In Price Wars, he sets out on a worldwide journey to investigate what caused the wave of chaos that consumed the world in the 2010s. Russell travels to Tunisia, Iraq, Venezuela, Ukraine, East Africa, and Central America and discovers that unrest in all these places was triggered by dramatic and mysterious swings in the price of essential commodities. Deregulation of the commodities markets means that food prices can shoot up even in years of abundant harvests, causing hunger and protest. Oil prices and real-estate values can surge even when supplies are normal, enriching and emboldening dictators. It is this instability--fueled by banks and hedge funds in faraway New York and London--that has toppled regimes and unsettled the West. Price Wars is a fascinating, original, and groundbreaking exposé of the power of the commodities markets to disrupt the world.

Download or read book Natural Resources and Violent Conflict written by Ian Bannon and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research carried out by the World Bank on the root causes of conflict and civil war finds that a developing country's economic dependence on natural resources or other primary commodities is strongly associated with the risk level for violent conflict. This book brings together a collection of reports and case studies that explore what the international community in particular can do to reduce this risk.; The text explains the links between natural resources and conflict and examines the impact of resource dependence on economic performance, governance, secessionist movements and revel financing. It then explores avenues for international action - from financial and resource reporting procedures and policy recommendations to commodity tracking systems and enforcement instruments, including sanctions, certification requirements, aid conditionality, legislative and judicial instruments.

Download or read book Understanding Civil Wars written by Edward Newman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores the nature of civil war in the modern world and in historical perspective. Civil wars represent the principal form of armed conflict since the end of the Second World War, and certainly in the contemporary era. The nature and impact of civil wars suggests that these conflicts reflect and are also a driving force for major societal change. In this sense, Understanding Civil Wars: Continuity and change in intrastate conflict argues that the nature of civil war is not fundamentally changing in nature. The book includes a thorough consideration of patterns and types of intrastate conflict and debates relating to the causes, impact, and ‘changing nature’ of war. A key focus is on the political and social driving forces of such conflict and its societal meanings, significance and consequences. The author also explores methodological and epistemological challenges related to studying and understanding intrastate war. A range of questions and debates are addressed. What is the current knowledge regarding the causes and nature of armed intrastate conflict? Is it possible to produce general, cross-national theories on civil war which have broad explanatory relevance? Is the concept of ‘civil wars’ empirically meaningful in an era of globalization and transnational war? Has intrastate conflict fundamentally changed in nature? Are there historical patterns in different types of intrastate conflict? What are the most interesting methodological trends and debates in the study of armed intrastate conflict? How are narratives about the causes and nature of civil wars constructed around ideas such as ethnic conflict, separatist conflict and resource conflict? This book will be of much interest to students of civil wars, intrastate conflict, security studies and international relations in general.

Download or read book Climate Change and Resource Conflict written by Judith M. Bretthauer and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-08-25 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the links between climate change and resource scarcity to violent conflict. Does climate change cause conflicts? This book analyses the economic, political and social conditions under which countries with low levels of freshwater or arable land experience armed conflict. There are strong theoretic arguments linking climate change and scarcity of livelihood resources to conflict. However, empirical accounts are contradictory. Using qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this book compares 22 political, economic and social conditions across 30 countries experiencing scarcity of available freshwater or arable land. The results show that there are three types of resource-scarce countries that experience conflicts: (neo)patrimonial states, oil-rich states that are poorly integrated into the global economy and least developed states. In addition, the results reveal that there are two types of resource scarce countries that remain peaceful: non-agrarian countries with either even development between groups or high integration into the global economy with high levels of adaptive capacities. This explains the contradictory results of previous empirical studies and suggests that resource scarcity might contribute to conflict in least developed countries. This book will be of much interest to students of climate change, critical security, peace and conflict studies, and IR in general.

Download or read book Challenges of Globalization and Prospects for an Inter civilizational World Order written by Ino Rossi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 1104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a must-read volume on globalization in which some of the foremost scholars in the field discuss the latest issues. Truly providing a global perspective, it includes authorship and discussions from the Global North and South, and covers the major facets of globalization: cultural, economic, ecological and political. It discusses the historical developments in governance preceding globalization, the diverse theoretical and methodological approaches to globalization, and analyzes underdevelopment, anti-globalization movements, global poverty, global inequality, and the debates on international trade versus protectionism. Finally, the volume looks to the future and provides prospects for inter-civilizational understanding, rapprochement, and global cooperation. This will be of great interest to academics and students of sociology, social anthropology, political science and international relations, economics, social policy, social history, as well as to policy makers.

Download or read book The Economics of World War I written by Stephen Broadberry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.

Download or read book Trading Away from Conflict written by Massimiliano Calì and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-12-18 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Violent conflict weakens governance, undermines economic development and threatens both national and regional stability. Trade shocks can also have stark impact on conflict. This book sets out to empirically test these linkages between trade shocks and conflict via cross-country and intra-country analysis.

Download or read book Climate Change and Genocide written by Jürgen Zimmerer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-02 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change caused by human activity is the most fundamental challenge facing mankind in the 21st century, since it will drastically alter the living conditions of millions of people, mainly in the Global South. Environmental violence, including resource crises such as peak fossil fuel, will lie at the heart of future conflicts. However, Genocide Studies have so far neglected this subject, due to the emphasis that traditional genocide scholarship places on ideology and legal prosecution, leading to a narrow understanding of the driving forces of genocide. This books aims at changing this, initiating a dialogue between scholars working in the areas of climate change and genocide. Research into genocide as well as climate change is a highly interdisciplinary endeavour, transcending the boundaries of established disciplines. Contributions to this book address this by approaching the subject from a wide array of methodological, theoretical, disciplinary and regional perspectives. As all the contributions show, climate change is a major threat multiplier for violence or non-violent destruction and any understanding of prevention needs to take this into account. They offer a basis for much needed Critical Prevention Studies, which aims at sustainable prevention. This book was originally published as a special issue of the International Journal of Human Rights.

Download or read book Oil Rents Corruption and State Stability Evidence From Panel Data Regressions written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of oil rents on corruption and state stability exploiting the exogenous within-country variation of a new measure of oil rents for a panel of 31 oil-exporting countries during the period 1992 to 2005. We find that an increase in oil rents significantly increases corruption, significantly deteriorates political rights while at the same time leading to a significant improvement in civil liberties. We argue that these findings can be explained by the political elite having an incentive to extend civil liberties but reduce political rights in the presence of oil windfalls to evade redistribution and conflict. We support our argument documenting that there is a significant effect of oil rents on corruption in countries with a high share of state participation in oil production while no such link exists in countries where state participation in oil production is low.

Download or read book Development Economics written by Alain de Janvry and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-12-22 with total page 859 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Development Economics: Theory and Practice provides students and practitioners with the perspectives and the tools they need to think analytically and critically about the current major economic development issues in the world. Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet identify seven key dimensions of development; growth, poverty, vulnerability, inequality, basic needs, sustainability, and quality of life, and use them to structure the contents of the text. This book gives a historical perspective on the evolution of thought in development. It uses theory and empirical analysis to present readers with a full picture of how development works, how its successes and failures can be assessed, and how alternatives can be introduced. The authors demonstrate how diagnostics, design of programs and policies, and impact evaluation can be used to seek new solutions to the suffering and violence caused by development failures. This text is fully engaged with the most cutting edge research in the field, and equips readers with analytical tools for the impact evaluation of development programs and policies, illustrated with numerous examples. It is underpinned throughout by a wealth of student-friendly features including case studies, quantitative problem sets, end-of-chapter questions, and extensive references. This unique text aims at helping readers learn about development, think analytically about achievements and alternative options, and be prepared to compete on the development job market.

Download or read book The World System as Unit of Analysis written by Roberto Patricio Korzeniewicz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-22 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World-system analyses have recast the study of between- and within-nation country inequality as constituent aspects of a single field of inquiry: the study of inequality and social stratification as processes that always have been global in their very essence. World-system analyses maintain that global social stratification pivots around institutional arrangements that render distributional outcomes as simultaneously “national,” “gendered,” “racialized,” and “global” processes. This book takes stock of some of the enduring theoretical and empirical contributions of a world-system perspective, and identifies promising directions for future inquiry and discussion. Some chapters reassess the scope and methodologies of world-system analysis around several key problems (e.g., the spatial and temporal boundaries of global commodity chains, the construction and challenge of various dimensions of social inequality, systemic and antisystemic social movements). Others take stock of areas in which world-systems are promoting methodological innovation and/or generating useful global data, and identify questions that demand additional methodological and empirical attention for future research. In different ways, this book help us to critically reconsider some of the enduring legacies within a world-system perspective (such as Karl Polanyi’s concept of the “double movement,” or the distinction drawn by Giovanni Arrighi or Immanuel Wallerstein between systemic and antisystemic movements). As argued by many of the authors in this book, a world-historical approach calls for greater sensitivity to the manifold ways in which conceptual boundaries change over time and space. Taking seriously the issue of unit of analysis, this book explores critically productive ways for better understanding global patterns of continuity and change.

Download or read book Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.