Download or read book Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers written by Robert D. Folker and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A growing number of JMIC students have began to incorporate replicable research design into their theses. This distillation of Master Sergeant Folker's theses shows how fruitful this approach can be. By taking advantage of on-site research funds available from the College, he managed, in brief visits to four Unified Command Joint Intelligence Centers, to carry out a controlled experiment to measure the impact of analyst familiarity with and use of one structured analytic technique hypothesis testing. His findings, if corroborated by follow-on studies, could have a substantial impact on Intelligence Community analytical practices, and even some influence on how senior policy officials react to analytical products. Managers of analytical personnel might also note that structured methods would appear, from this study of non-specialized joint intelligence center analysts, to be useful to specialized analysts who may be required to move beyond their areas of deep expertise to cover new or unfamiliar assignments.

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis in Theatre Joint Intelligence Centers an Experiment in Applying Structured Methods written by Msgt Robert D Folker Jr and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2013-01-19 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The author challenges the Intelligence Community-indeed the entire U.S. government and the private sector as well-to design and conduct reliable tests to demonstrate which analytic approach is superior: structured or intuitive.

Download or read book National Defense Intelligence College Paper Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers an Experiment in Applying Structured Methods Involving Various Scenarios and Two Tailed Tests written by Department of Defense and published by . This book was released on 2018-01-15 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique and informative paper was produced by the National Intelligence University / National Defense Intelligence College. In clear, articulate, unmistakable language, Master Sergeant Folker's learned thesis sets forth the key opposing arguments in the long-standing controversy over the role of structuring in intelligence analysis. The controversy is largely one-sided, because proponents of intuitive analysis see no purpose in debating the issue, as they are completely satisfied with the status quo. It is only the structuring enthusiasts who see a need for drastic change in the way analysis is conducted. Because, as Folker points out, supporters of the status quo include not only most analysts but most commanders as well, the structuring enthusiasts have never made progress in reforming the other side. And they won't make any progress until the superiority of structured analysis over intuitive analysis is proved, which Folker has taken a first giant step in doing. And it is precisely on this point that Folker challenges the Intelligence Community-- indeed the entire U.S. government and the private sector as well--to design and conduct reliable tests to demonstrate which analytic approach is superior: structured or intuitive. Given the wide range of available structuring techniques, each one should be tested in competition with intuition. There are many myths prevalent in the analytic community, public and private, concerning structured analysis: It is time-consuming and overly complicated; it eliminates the indispensable role of intuition; it involves numbers and arcane formulae that render analysis mechanical and devoid of creative solutions; and so on. Tests like Folker's will surely dispose of these myths and demonstrate the immense value and power of structuring.His thesis, moreover, should encourage students to undertake research experiments that challenge long-held beliefs and test new theories of military interest. JMIC students are especially well placed to conduct thoughtful, creative research because they bring to this scholarly environment a rich mixture of background and viewpoints, and because they remain vitally involved in the business of wringing meaning from a great variety of intelligence information.Topics and subjects include: qualitative analysis, structured methodologies, case studies, scenarios, two-tailed tests.

Download or read book Bringing Intelligence About Practitioners Reflect on Best Practices written by Russell G. Swenson and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-08-12 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume helps identify how to produce good or better intelligence - intelligence that is of use to policymakers. The authors have - across a range of areas of interest -identified some of the practices that work best "to bring about" good intelligence. The focus is on analysis rather than operations and includes pieces from currently serving professionals in the armed forces, CIA, and NSA. Editor Dr. Russell G. Swenson directed the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research at the Joint Military Intelligence College when this book was published by the Joint Military Intelligence College.

Download or read book Bringing Intelligence about written by Russell George Swenson and published by Joint Military Intelligence College. This book was released on 2003 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Randolph H. Pherson and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2020-01-14 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Download or read book Analytic Culture in the U S Intelligence Community written by Center for the Study of Intelligence and published by . This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Foreword: It is a rare season when the intelligence story in the news concerns intelligence analysis, not secret operations abroad. The United States is having such a season as it debates whether intelligence failed in the run-up to both September 11 and the second Iraq war, and so Rob Johnston's wonderful book is perfectly timed to provide the back-story to those headlines. The CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence is to be commended for having the good sense to find Johnston and the courage to support his work, even though his conclusions are not what many in the world of intelligence analysis would like to hear. He reaches those conclusions through the careful procedures of an anthropologist-conducting literally hundreds of interviews and observing and participating in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis-and so they cannot easily be dismissed as mere opinion, still less as the bitter mutterings of those who have lost out in the bureaucratic wars. His findings constitute not just a strong indictment of the way American intelligence performs analysis, but also, and happily, a guide for how to do better. Johnston finds no baseline standard analytic method. Instead, the most common practice is to conduct limited brainstorming on the basis of previous analysis, thus producing a bias toward confirming earlier views. The validating of data is questionable-for instance, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of spy reports doesn't permit testing of their validity-reinforcing the tendency to look for data that confirms, not refutes, prevailing hypotheses. The process is risk averse, with considerable managerial conservatism. There is much more emphasis on avoiding error than on imagining surprises. The analytic process is driven by current intelligence, especially the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's Daily Brief (PDB), which might be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston doesn't put it quite that way, but the Intelligence Community does more reporting than in-depth analysis. None of the analytic agencies knows much about the analytic techniques of the others. In all, there tends to be much more emphasis on writing and communication skills than on analytic methods. Training is driven more by the druthers of individual analysts than by any strategic view of the agencies and what they need. Most training is on-the-job. Johnston identifies the needs for analysis of at least three different types of consumers-cops, spies, and soldiers. The needs of those consumers produce at least three distinct types of intelligence-investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical. The research suggests the need for serious study of analytic methods across all three, guided by professional methodologists. Analysts should have many more opportunities to do fieldwork abroad. They should also move much more often across the agency "stovepipes" they now inhabit. These movements would give them a richer sense for how other agencies do analysis. CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * CHAPTER TWO - Findings * CHAPTER THREE - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * CHAPTER FOUR - Testing the Intelligence Cycle Through Systems Modeling and Simulation * CHAPTER FIVE - Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts * CHAPTER SIX - The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis * CHAPTER SEVEN - Instructional Technology: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence Community * CHAPTER EIGHT - Organizational Culture: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * CHAPTER NINE - Recommendations: The First Step: Recognizing A Fundamental Problem * CHAPTER TEN - Survey Methodology * CHAPTER ELEVEN - Q-Sort Methodology * CHAPTER TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" Problem and Calculation of Effect Size

Download or read book Cases in Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.

Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences-based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the workshop was to discuss the best ways to take methods and tools from behavioral science and apply them to work in intelligence operations. More specifically, the workshop focused on the issue of field evaluation-the testing of these methods and tools in the context in which they will be used in order to determine if they are effective in real-world settings. This book is a summary and synthesis of the two days of presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. The workshop participants included invited speakers and experts from a number of areas related to the behavioral sciences and the intelligence community. The discussions covered such ground as the obstacles to field evaluation of behavioral science tools and methods, the importance of field evaluation, and various lessons learned from experience with field evaluation in other areas.

Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2011-03-21 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This National Defense Intelligence College publication defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit. "David Moore has added his powerful voice to those calling for America's intelligence analysts to be more self-conscious about their methods and more venturesome in applying more formal methods." - Gregory F. Treverton, Rand Corp. "...a valuable initiative on behalf of the Intelligence Community" - Francis J. Hughes, National Defense Intelligence College.

Download or read book A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis written by Center for the Study of Intelligence and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions. Originally published by the CIA in color. Previously available online only as an e-file.

Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis written by Hank Prunckun and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2014-09-08 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 9/11, the needs of intelligence agencies as well as the missions they conduct have increased in number, size, and complexity. As such, government and private security agencies are recruiting staff to analyze the vast amount of data collected in these missions. This textbook offers a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. It acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research, but also the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment as well as obtain data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry. This revised edition of the popular text has been expanded and updated significantly.

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by Robert M. Clark and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2012-09-25 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert M. Clark explains that a collaborative, target-centric approach allows for more effective analysis, while better meeting customer needs.