Download or read book Mathematical Models in Epidemiology written by Fred Brauer and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-10 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.
Download or read book The Threat of Pandemic Influenza written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-04-09 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable. Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic regions have alarmed experts about the world's ability to prevent or contain a human pandemic. The workshop summary, The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready? addresses these urgent concerns. The report describes what steps the United States and other countries have taken thus far to prepare for the next outbreak of "killer flu." It also looks at gaps in readiness, including hospitals' inability to absorb a surge of patients and many nations' incapacity to monitor and detect flu outbreaks. The report points to the need for international agreements to share flu vaccine and antiviral stockpiles to ensure that the 88 percent of nations that cannot manufacture or stockpile these products have access to them. It chronicles the toll of the H5N1 strain of avian flu currently circulating among poultry in many parts of Asia, which now accounts for the culling of millions of birds and the death of at least 50 persons. And it compares the costs of preparations with the costs of illness and death that could arise during an outbreak.
Download or read book Influenza Models written by P. Selby and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kilbourne (1973) described the student of influenza as "continually looking back over his shoulder and asking 'what happened?', in the hope that understanding of past events will alert him to the catastrophies ofthe future". Experience suggests the futility of such a hope, since the most predictable feature of influenza is its unpredictability. Nonetheless, the stubborn viabil ity of this hope is strongly affirmed by the many attempts, described and discussed in this volume, to develop a useful and practical representation of influenza virus behavior. I hasten to add, however, that the desired model has yet to be perfected. The existence and usefulness of animal models of infectious diseases of man are well documented. Reproduction of disease by infecting an experimental animal satisfies the third of Koch's four postulates to establish proof of disease causation by a specific bacterium. Animal models also have been extremely useful in studies of the pathogenesis, immunoprophylaxis, and specific therapy of several important diseases, ineluding (with only modest success) influenza. Development of such a model is simple, at least in concept. and can be achieved by one or only a few scientists.
Download or read book Flu written by Gina Kolata and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Veteran journalist Gina Kolata's Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It presents a fascinating look at true story of the world's deadliest disease. In 1918, the Great Flu Epidemic felled the young and healthy virtually overnight. An estimated forty million people died as the epidemic raged. Children were left orphaned and families were devastated. As many American soldiers were killed by the 1918 flu as were killed in battle during World War I. And no area of the globe was safe. Eskimos living in remote outposts in the frozen tundra were sickened and killed by the flu in such numbers that entire villages were wiped out. Scientists have recently rediscovered shards of the flu virus frozen in Alaska and preserved in scraps of tissue in a government warehouse. Gina Kolata, an acclaimed reporter for The New York Times, unravels the mystery of this lethal virus with the high drama of a great adventure story. Delving into the history of the flu and previous epidemics, detailing the science and the latest understanding of this mortal disease, Kolata addresses the prospects for a great epidemic recurring, and, most important, what can be done to prevent it.
Download or read book Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response written by World Health Organization and published by World Health Organization. This book was released on 2009 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guidance is an update of WHO global influenza preparedness plan: the role of WHO and recommendations for national measures before and during pandemics, published March 2005 (WHO/CDS/CSR/GIP/2005.5).
Download or read book CDC Yellow Book 2018 Health Information for International Travel written by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-17 with total page 705 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: THE ESSENTIAL WORK IN TRAVEL MEDICINE -- NOW COMPLETELY UPDATED FOR 2018 As unprecedented numbers of travelers cross international borders each day, the need for up-to-date, practical information about the health challenges posed by travel has never been greater. For both international travelers and the health professionals who care for them, the CDC Yellow Book 2018: Health Information for International Travel is the definitive guide to staying safe and healthy anywhere in the world. The fully revised and updated 2018 edition codifies the U.S. government's most current health guidelines and information for international travelers, including pretravel vaccine recommendations, destination-specific health advice, and easy-to-reference maps, tables, and charts. The 2018 Yellow Book also addresses the needs of specific types of travelers, with dedicated sections on: · Precautions for pregnant travelers, immunocompromised travelers, and travelers with disabilities · Special considerations for newly arrived adoptees, immigrants, and refugees · Practical tips for last-minute or resource-limited travelers · Advice for air crews, humanitarian workers, missionaries, and others who provide care and support overseas Authored by a team of the world's most esteemed travel medicine experts, the Yellow Book is an essential resource for travelers -- and the clinicians overseeing their care -- at home and abroad.
Download or read book Textbook of Influenza written by Robert G. Webster and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-01-06 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Textbook of Influenza is a comprehensive resource covering all aspects of influenza, from the genetic and molecular biology of the virus through to clinical aspects of the disease and the latest drug developments and treatments. This new edition has been completely revised and reflects the integration of disciplines concerning the emergence, evolution, pathogenesis and control of influenza viruses in the field of human and veterinary public health. Textbook of Influenza examines the lessons learnt from the latest pandemic and provides the current state of knowledge for many yet unresolved issues related to virus origin, spread, pathogenesis and disease severity to better prepare for future pandemics. It covers the background to recent advances in influenza genomics and reverse genetics which have allowed the identification of virus virulence factors and the analysis and reconstruction of influenza viruses such as the 1918 Spanish flu strain. This new edition is divided into eight key sections, containing chapters co-written by international experts from both the clinical and scientific communities, covering: • Influenza Perspectives • Structure and Replication • Evolution and Ecology • Epidemiology and Surveillance • Immunology • Vaccines and Vaccine Development • Clinical Aspects and Antivirals • Public Health Textbook of Influenza is for all those working in the area of influenza including clinical and basic scientists, immunologists, molecular and structural virologists, public health officials and global pandemic control planners.
Download or read book Influenza Virus written by Yohei Yamauchi and published by Humana. This book was released on 2019-09-11 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides researchers with widely used techniques for the study of virology, focusing on molecular biology and imaging to encourage mechanistic investigation of virus-host interactions. Chapters detail a broad range of methods from diagnosis, virus propagation, proteomics, haploid screening, lentiviral screening, virus entry, single molecule RNA imaging, correlative light and electron microscopy (CLEM), EM, light-sheet microscopy, biochemistry, viral transcription, physiological infection models, animal models, in vivo imaging, antigenic evolution, immunology to mathematical modelling. Reviews cover general influenza, clinical trials, both sides of the gain-of-function debate, and computational modelling. Written in the highly successful Methods in Molecular Biology series format, chapters include introductions to their respective topics, lists of the necessary materials and reagents, step-by-step, readily reproducible laboratory protocols, and tips on troubleshooting and avoiding known pitfalls. Cutting-edge and thorough, Influenza Virus: Methods and Protocols aims to motivate experienced researchers and newcomers in the field and improve our overall understanding of influenza.
Download or read book Spatiotemporal Modeling of Influenza written by William E. Schiesser and published by Morgan & Claypool Publishers. This book was released on 2019-05-06 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has a two-fold purpose: An introduction to the computer-based modeling of influenza, a continuing major worldwide communicable disease. The use of (1) as an illustration of a methodology for the computer-based modeling of communicable diseases. For the purposes of (1) and (2), a basic influenza model is formulated as a system of partial differential equations (PDEs) that define the spatiotemporal evolution of four populations: susceptibles, untreated and treated infecteds, and recovereds. The requirements of a well-posed PDE model are considered, including the initial and boundary conditions. The terms of the PDEs are explained. The computer implementation of the model is illustrated with a detailed line-by-line explanation of a system of routines in R (a quality, open-source scientific computing system that is readily available from the Internet). The R routines demonstrate the straightforward numerical solution of a system of nonlinear PDEs by the method of lines (MOL), an established general algorithm for PDEs. The presentation of the PDE modeling methodology is introductory with a minumum of formal mathematics (no theorems and proofs), and with emphasis on example applications. The intent of the book is to assist in the initial understanding and use of PDE mathematical modeling of communicable diseases, and the explanation and interpretation of the computed model solutions, as illustrated with the influenza model.
Download or read book The Pathology of Influenza written by Milton C. Winternitz and published by . This book was released on 1920 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Domestic and International Impacts of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-07-04 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In March and early April 2009, a new, swine-origin 2009-H1N1 influenza A virus emerged in Mexico and the United States. During the first few weeks of surveillance, the virus spread by human-to-human transmission worldwide to over 30 countries. On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6 in response to the ongoing global spread of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. By October 30, 2009, the H1N1 influenza A had spread to 191 countries and resulted in 5,700 fatalities. A national emergency was declared in the United States and the swine flu joined SARS and the avian flu as pandemics of the 21st century. Vaccination is currently available, but in limited supply, and with a 60 percent effectiveness rate against the virus. The story of how this new influenza virus spread out of Mexico to other parts of North America and then on to Europe, the Far East, and now Australia and the Pacific Rim countries has its origins in the global interconnectedness of travel, trade, and tourism. Given the rapid spread of the virus, the international scientific, public health, security, and policy communities had to mobilize quickly to characterize this unique virus and address its potential effects. The World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control have played critical roles in the surveillance, detection and responses to the H1N1 virus. The Domestic and International Impacts of the 2009-H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic: Global Challenges, Global Solutions aimed to examine the evolutionary origins of the H1N1 virus and evaluate its potential public health and socioeconomic consequences, while monitoring and mitigating the impact of a fast-moving pandemic. The rapporteurs for this workshop reported on the need for increased and geographically robust global influenza vaccine production capacities; enhanced and sustained interpandemic demand for seasonal influenza vaccines; clear "triggers" for pandemic alert levels; and accelerated research collaboration on new vaccine manufacturing techniques. This book will be an essential guide for healthcare professionals, policymakers, drug manufacturers and investigators.
Download or read book Modeling Avian Influenza H5N1 written by Kelly Clarkson and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-04-18 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Medicine - Pathology, grade: A, University of Michigan, language: English, abstract: In the recent past, bird flu has claimed many lives. These are mainly of those, belonging to humans and animals of whose food chain, birds and fowls tend to be a part. This, has in turn affected other animals, as well as upset the entire food chain. The virus has an RNA based protein (Tiensin, Thanawat, 2011), which is the cause of the problem. There are many subtypes of the virus, however only four of them have been found to be the real cause of the problems. These strains are named as the H5N1, H7N3, H7N7 and H9N2. This virus has genes, which are more adaptive towards aerial beings such as birds. However, this does not mean that the virus cannot pass on the pathogen to other beings but are relieve less likely to result in death. The World Health Organization mentions in its report that, there have been just two deaths due to Avian Flu in the countries of Egypt and Indonesia in a time span of 5th November 2012 and 17th November, 2012(World Health Organization, 2012). Both the deaths have been attributed to exposure to chicken or ducks in the backyard or in the neighborhood. In this report, we attempt to find an appropriate model so that the problem can be nipped in the bud. The report, will seek to determine the implementation and the results of various implementations in order to perfect the model. Apart from the cases reported, the avian flu has seriously hit the poultry market, with government taking no chances and introducing bans on the import and export of chicken and fowl as well as products made out of them. All the infected birds have been tested in order to eliminate chances of wrong deaths. The affected ones are out to death including their young ones and the unhatched eggs. In the fig 1.1, the table mentions the cumulative number of cases as well as deaths attributed to Avian Influenza. The table mentions data collected since 2003, the year when the flu virus first made an appearance till 2012, in order to show case the necessity for the generation of the perfect model.
Download or read book Influenza A Century of Research written by Irina Kiseleva and published by Bentham Science Publishers. This book was released on 2021-07-07 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Influenza is one of the most ancient and intriguing diseases that has been accompanying our civilization for millennia. While mankind has successfully defeated many dangerous influenza infections in the last couple of centuries, influenza control remains a serious problem for public health. A number of influenza vaccines and antiviral compounds have been licensed in recent times. However, the influenza virus is still ahead of us, as it continues to persistently infect humans to this day. Influenza: A Century of Research shows how influenza virology has developed historically and the tremendous knowledge that has been uncovered in the study of influenza. In this monograph, the authors present a historical perspective on influenza, chronologically, with an emphasis on its virology. Chapters cover information about the isolation of the first influenza viruses, substrates, and models for studying influenza, structure, and life cycle of the influenza virus, mechanisms of attenuation and virulence. Chapters progress into the multidisciplinary aspects of influenza research such as influenza virus ecology and the evolutionary origin of epidemic and pandemic influenza viruses. A significant part of the book also covers the description of the prevention and treatment of influenza and reasons that have contributed to insufficient control for influenza. The questions of how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses, and if we can eliminate this virus are also addressed. Influenza: A Century of Research is an informative source of information for a broad range of readers, academic or otherwise, who are interested in knowing more about the disease.
Download or read book Vaccines for the 21st Century written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2001-02-21 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vaccines have made it possible to eradicate the scourge of smallpox, promise the same for polio, and have profoundly reduced the threat posed by other diseases such as whooping cough, measles, and meningitis. What is next? There are many pathogens, autoimmune diseases, and cancers that may be promising targets for vaccine research and development. This volume provides an analytic framework and quantitative model for evaluating disease conditions that can be applied by those setting priorities for vaccine development over the coming decades. The committee describes an approach for comparing potential new vaccines based on their impact on morbidity and mortality and on the costs of both health care and vaccine development. The book examines: Lessons to be learned from the polio experience. Scientific advances that set the stage for new vaccines. Factors that affect how vaccines are used in the population. Value judgments and ethical questions raised by comparison of health needs and benefits. The committee provides a way to compare different forms of illness and set vaccine priorities without assigning a monetary value to lives. Their recommendations will be important to anyone involved in science policy and public health planning: policymakers, regulators, health care providers, vaccine manufacturers, and researchers.
Download or read book The Great Influenza written by John M. Barry and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2005-10-04 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: #1 New York Times bestseller “Barry will teach you almost everything you need to know about one of the deadliest outbreaks in human history.”—Bill Gates "Monumental... an authoritative and disturbing morality tale."—Chicago Tribune The strongest weapon against pandemic is the truth. Read why in the definitive account of the 1918 Flu Epidemic. Magisterial in its breadth of perspective and depth of research, The Great Influenza provides us with a precise and sobering model as we confront the epidemics looming on our own horizon. As Barry concludes, "The final lesson of 1918, a simple one yet one most difficult to execute, is that...those in authority must retain the public's trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one. Lincoln said that first, and best. A leader must make whatever horror exists concrete. Only then will people be able to break it apart." At the height of World War I, history’s most lethal influenza virus erupted in an army camp in Kansas, moved east with American troops, then exploded, killing as many as 100 million people worldwide. It killed more people in twenty-four months than AIDS killed in twenty-four years, more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century. But this was not the Middle Ages, and 1918 marked the first collision of science and epidemic disease.
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic a Literature Review written by Arin Dutta and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The studies reviewed in this paper indicate that with adequate preparedness planning and execution it is possible to contain pandemic influenza outbreaks where they occur, for viral strains of moderate infectiousness. For viral strains of higher infectiousness, containment may be difficult, but it may be possible to mitigate the effects of the spread of pandemic influenza within a country and/or internationally with a combination of policies suited to the origins and nature of the initial outbreak. These results indicate the likelihood of containment success in 'frontline risk' countries, given specific resource availability and level of infectiousness; as well as mitigation success in 'secondary' risk countries, given the assumption of inevitable international transmission through air travel networks. However, from the analysis of the modeling results on interventions in the U.S. and U.K. after a global pandemic starts, there is a basis for arguing that the emphasis in the secondary risk countries could shift from mitigation towards containment. This follows since a mitigation-focused strategy in such developed countries presupposes that initial outbreak containment in these countries will necessarily fail. This is paradoxical if containment success at similar infectiousness of the virus is likely in developing countries with lower public health resources, based on results using similar modeling methodologies. Such a shift in emphasis could have major implications for global risk management for diseases of international concern such as pandemic influenza or a SARS-like disease.
Download or read book Multi species Influenza Models with Recombination written by Brian John Coburn and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Avian influenza strains have been proven to be highly virulent in human populations, killing approximately 70 percent of infected individuals. Although the virus is able to spread across species from birds-to-humans, some strains, such as H5N1, have not been observed to spread from human-to-human. Pigs are capable of infection by both avian and human strains and seem to be likely candidates as intermediate hosts for co-infection of the inter-species strains. A co-infected pig potentially acts as a mixing vessel and could produce a new strain as a result of a recombination process. Humans could be immunologically naive to these new strains, hence making them super-strains. We propose an interacting host system (IHS) for such a process that considers three host species that interact by sharing strains; that is, a primary and secondary host species can both infect an intermediate host. When an intermediate host is co-infected with the strains from both the other hosts, co-infected individuals may become carriers of a super-strain back into the primary host population. The model is formulated as a classical susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model, where the primary and intermediate host species have a super-infection and co-infection with recombination structure, respectively. The intermediate host is coupled to the other host species at compartments of given infectious subclasses of the primary and secondary hosts. We use the model to give a new perspective for the trade-off hypothesis for disease virulence, by analyzing the behavior of a highly virulent super-strain. We give permanence conditions for a number of the subsystems of the IHS in terms of basic reproductive numbers of independent strains. We also simulate several relevant scenarios showing complicated dynamics and connections with epidemic forecasting.
