Download or read book Influence and Escalation written by Rebecca Hersman and published by . This book was released on 2022-01-12 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obscure ways to shape the strategic environment. This report presents eight scenarios--four focused on Russia and four focused on China--that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.
Download or read book Influence and Escalation written by Rebecca Hersman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-12 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obscure ways to shape the strategic environment. This report presents eight scenarios—four focused on Russia and four focused on China—that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.
Download or read book Arms and Influence written by Thomas C. Schelling and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.
Download or read book Alliances Nuclear Weapons and Escalation written by Stephan Frühling and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an era of great power competition, the role of alliances in managing escalation of conflict has acquired renewed importance. Nuclear weapons remain the ultimate means for deterrence and controlling escalation, and are central to US alliances in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, allies themselves need to better prepare for managing escalation in an increasingly challenging geostrategic and technological environment for the US and its allies. While the challenge of great power competition is acute at both ends of Eurasia, adversary threats, geography and the institutional context of US alliances differ. This book brings together leading experts from Europe, Northeast Asia, the United States and Australia to focus on these challenges, identify commonalities and differences across regions, and pinpoint ways to collectively manage nuclear deterrence and potential escalation pathways in America’s 21st century alliances. ‘Nuclear weapons play an important role in deterrence and preventing military conflict between great powers, while also posing an existential threat to humanity. It is vital that we have a nuanced understanding of this important challenge, so that such weapons are never used. This book offers many important perspectives and makes a significant contribution to the overall debate about these powerful weapons.’ — The Hon Julie Bishop, Chancellor, The Australian National University, Former Foreign Minister of Australia ‘This timely book identifies a wide range of challenges US alliances both in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic face as they seek to ensure the value of US extended deterrence, particular the US nuclear umbrella, against China and Russia. This unique collection of chapters written by experts in US allies in both regions presents widely varying security perceptions and priorities. To understand such differences is the key to globally strengthen the US alliance systems, which are a significant advantage Washington enjoys over the two competitors.’ — Yukio Satoh, former President of The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) ‘This is a timely and thoughtful collection of essays that should serve to jumpstart public discussion and debate—the absence of which is widely noted and much bemoaned. Each contributor examines an aspect of the complicated, multifaceted nuclear debate by discussing the range of dilemmas from deterrence to disarmament. The various views set out here are more relevant than ever as Russia, China and the United States flex their nuclear muscles in new and sometimes dangerous ways. This book should be read by anyone interested in the preventing the use of nuclear weapons and understanding complexities of alliances in an increasingly dangerous world.’ — Madelyn Creedon, former Principal Deputy Administrator of the US National Nuclear Security Administration and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs
Download or read book Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats written by Vladlena Benson and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of fresh allegations that personal data of Facebook users have been illegally used to influence the outcome of the US general election and the Brexit vote, the debate over manipulation of social Big Data continues to gain more momentum. Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats addresses various emerging challenges in response to cybersecurity, examining cognitive applications in decision-making, behaviour and basic human interaction. The book examines the role of psychology in cybersecurity by addressing each factor involved in the process: hackers, targets, cybersecurity practitioners, and the wider social context in which these groups operate. Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats covers a variety of topics including information systems, psychology, sociology, human resources, leadership, strategy, innovation, law, finance and others. - Explains psychological factors inherent in machine learning and artificial intelligence - Explores attitudes towards data and privacy through the phenomena of digital hoarding and protection motivation theory - Discusses the role of social and communal factors in cybersecurity behaviour and attitudes - Investigates the factors that determine the spread and impact of information and disinformation
Download or read book Constructive Conflicts written by Louis Kriesberg and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2007 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fourth edition of this textbook is now available. This popular, highly regarded, and comprehensive book synthesizes pertinent theories and evidence about diverse conflicts. Kriesberg examines the strategies that partisans and intermediaries can use to minimize the destructiveness of these conflicts. Not only does he examine large-scale forces that affect the various stages of conflict, but also the elements that contribute to constructive transformations at each stage. The diverse conflicts discussed are; the American civil rights struggle, the struggle for women's rights, apartheid in South Africa, labor-management relations, Palestinian-Israeli relations, protecting the environment, the Cold War, and countering terrorism, as well as conflicts in Northern Ireland, Chiapas, Mexico, and Sri Lanka. In addition to updating the conflicts examined in earlier editions, this new edition examines current issues, pertaining to ethical concerns, ideological and religious developments, and the changing global role of the United States.
Download or read book On Escalation written by Herman Kahn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.
Download or read book Foundations of Effective Influence Operations written by Eric Victor Larson and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2009 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors aim to assist the U.S. Army in understanding "influence operations," capabilities that may allow the United States to effectively influence the attitudes and behavior of particular foreign audiences while minimizing or avoiding combat. The book identifies approaches, methodologies, and tools that may be useful in planning, executing, and assessing influence operations.
Download or read book Strategic Rivalries in World Politics written by Michael P. Colaresi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-01-10 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International conflict is neither random nor inexplicable. It is highly structured by antagonisms between a relatively small set of states that regard each other as rivals. Examining the 173 strategic rivalries in operation throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, this book identifies the differences rivalries make in the probability of conflict escalation and analyzes how they interact with serial crises, arms races, alliances and capability advantages. The authors distinguish between rivalries concerning territorial disagreement (space) and rivalries concerning status and influence (position) and show how each leads to markedly different patterns of conflict escalation. They argue that rivals are more likely to engage in international conflict with their antagonists than non-rival pairs of states and conclude with an assessment of whether we can expect democratic peace, economic development and economic interdependence to constrain rivalry-induced conflict.
Download or read book Escalation And Intervention written by Arthur R. Day and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-27 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since World War II, the international community has tried to insulate, limit, and resolve local conflicts. The generally poor success record has led some to conclude that multilateral organizations have failed in dealing with international conflicts, while others have argued that governments have not used these organizations effectively. Not enough thought, however, has been given to the contributions that can be made to conflict management and resolution through the use of diplomatic, political, military, and economic intervention by multilateral organizations, by unilateral action of national states, and by efforts of states acting in informal concert. This book evaluates the means that have been used to influence the course of six recent disputes, considering the costs and benefits in each case. In a broader context, it examines the relationship of local conflict to international security and considers the dilemma of providing security to small states without compromising their independence. Finally, it assesses the extent to which local wars tend to escalate and threaten the global security system.
Download or read book Inadvertent Escalation written by Barry R. Posen and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Download or read book Beyond the Brink written by Matthew P. Goodman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2019-11-08 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the United States and China mark their 40th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations in 2019, the world’s most important bilateral relationship is increasingly defined by mistrust, competition, and uncertainty. After four decades of deepening economic integration, the talk in Washington today is about the extent to which the two economies will “decouple” over the years ahead. We drew on several different academic disciplines to help us model how an economic conflict between the United States and China could escalate and eventually de-escalate. Despite the challenges inherent in modelling economic conflict, our model was validated to a surprising extent by both our simulations and real-world developments. The project produced several findings that were both unexpected and relevant to policy, including that economic conflict is likely to be an enduring feature of the U.S.-China relationship for many years to come. Until perceptions of relative costs in the two countries shift, Washington and Beijing seem set on a path of continued escalation, no substantial trade deal, and at least partial decoupling of their economies. Reflecting on these findings, the report also provides recommendations for U.S. policymakers seeking to engage in successful economic bargaining with China.
Download or read book Countering Russian Social Media Influence written by Elizabeth Bodine-Baron and published by . This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Russian government's campaigns of disinformation--political, social, religious, or otherwise--have found a comfortable home on social media. This report presents strategies to counter Russian social media influence.
Download or read book War s Logic written by Antulio J. Echevarria II and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-18 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surveys how American strategic theorists have understood the nature and character of war in the twentieth century.
Download or read book The SAFER R Model written by George Everly, Jr. and published by . This book was released on 2017-04 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychological Crisis Intervention: The SAFER-R Model is designed to provide the reader with a simple set of guidelines for the provision of psychological first aid (PFA). The model of psychological first aid (PFA) for individuals presented in this volume is the SAFER-R model developed by the authors. Arguably it is the most widely used tactical model of crisis intervention in the world with roughly 1 million individuals trained in its operational and derivative guidelines. This model of PFA is not a therapy model nor a substitute for therapy. Rather it is designed to help crisis interventionists stabile and mitigate acute crisis reactions in individuals, as opposed to groups. Guidelines for triage and referrals are also provided. Before plunging into the step-by-step guidelines, a brief history and terminological framework is provided. Lastly, recommendations for addressing specific psychological challenges (suicidal ideation, resistance to seeking professional psychological support, and depression) are provided.
Download or read book Harmony Unraveled A Comprehensive Guide to Conflict Resolution written by Jack Goddard and published by Richards Education. This book was released on with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world where conflict is inevitable, "Harmony Unraveled" serves as your beacon of light, guiding you through the labyrinth of disputes to the tranquil shores of resolution. With meticulous insight and practical wisdom, this comprehensive guide delves into the depths of conflict, unraveling its intricate layers and revealing the pathways to peace. From the foundational principles of conflict to the intricate psychology behind it, each chapter of "Harmony Unraveled" is a treasure trove of knowledge, offering a roadmap for navigating even the most turbulent of disagreements. Explore the nuances of communication, negotiation, and mediation, equipping yourself with the tools needed to foster understanding and collaboration. Whether you're grappling with personal conflicts in relationships, navigating the complexities of workplace dynamics, or seeking to promote harmony within your community, this book offers invaluable guidance every step of the way. With practical strategies, real-world examples, and expert insights, "Harmony Unraveled" empowers you to transform conflict into opportunity, fostering deeper connections and building a more harmonious world.
Download or read book Pain Management and the Opioid Epidemic written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-09-28 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drug overdose, driven largely by overdose related to the use of opioids, is now the leading cause of unintentional injury death in the United States. The ongoing opioid crisis lies at the intersection of two public health challenges: reducing the burden of suffering from pain and containing the rising toll of the harms that can arise from the use of opioid medications. Chronic pain and opioid use disorder both represent complex human conditions affecting millions of Americans and causing untold disability and loss of function. In the context of the growing opioid problem, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) launched an Opioids Action Plan in early 2016. As part of this plan, the FDA asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene a committee to update the state of the science on pain research, care, and education and to identify actions the FDA and others can take to respond to the opioid epidemic, with a particular focus on informing FDA's development of a formal method for incorporating individual and societal considerations into its risk-benefit framework for opioid approval and monitoring.
