Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.

Download or read book INDIVIDUAL FORECASTING AND AGGREGATE OUTCOMES written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Edmund S Phelps and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, applies complexity modelling to economics and finance.

Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.

Download or read book Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union written by Francisco Torres and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-10-21 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Maastricht Treaty, signed in December 1991, set a timetable for the European Community's economic and monetary union (EMU) and clearly defined the institutional policy changes necessary for its achievement. Subsequent developments have demonstrated, however, the importance of many key issues in the transition to EMU that were largely neglected at the time. This volume reports the proceedings of a joint CEPR conference with the Banco de Portugal, held in January 1992. In these papers, leading international experts address the instability of the transition to EMU, the long-run implications of monetary union and the single market for growth and convergence in Europe. They also consider the prospects for inflation and fiscal convergence, regional policy and the integration of financial markets and fiscal systems. Attention focuses on adjustment mechanisms with differentiated shocks, region-specific business cycles and excessive industrial concentration and the cases for a two-speed EMU and fiscal federalism.

Download or read book Issues in Artificial Intelligence Robotics and Machine Learning 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 1887 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Machine Learning: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Expert Systems. The editors have built Issues in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Machine Learning: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Expert Systems in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Machine Learning: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Download or read book European Economics at a Crossroads written by John Barkley Rosser and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As Europe moves toward an integrated academic system, European economics is changing. This book discusses that change, along with the changes that are happening simultaneously within the economics profession. The authors argue that modern economics can no longer usefully be described as neoclassical , but is much better described as complexity economics. The complexity approach embraces rather than assumes away the complexities of social interaction. The authors also argue that despite all the problems with previous European academic structures, those structures allowed for more diversity than exists in US universities, and thus were often ahead of US universities in exploring new cutting-edge approaches. The authors further argue that by trying to judge themselves by US-centric measures and to copy US universities, the European economics profession is undermining some of the strengths of the older system strengths on which it should be building. While the authors agree that European economics needs to go through major changes in the coming decade, they argue that by building on Europe s strengths, rather than trying to follow a US example, Europe will be more likely to become the global leader in economics in the coming decades rather than a second-rate copy of the US. The book begins with two chapters spelling out the authors view of the changes in economics and European economics. This is followed by 11 interviews with a diverse set of innovative European economists from a range of European countries. In the interviews these European economists reflect on the ongoing changes in economics generally and in European economics specifically. These interviews demonstrate how the economics profession is moving away from traditional neoclassical economics into a dynamic set of new methods and approaches (incorporating work in behavioral economics, experimental economics, evolutionary game theory and ecological approaches, complexity and nonlinear dynamics, methodological analysis, and agent-based modelling) that the authors classify as complexity economics. This fascinating and easy-to-read book will prove a stimulating and thought-provoking read for those with an interest in economics, European education, and the nature of academic disciplines generally.

Download or read book Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments written by Peter Heemeijer and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Knowledge Information and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics written by Philippe Aghion and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-12 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics would not be what it is today without Edmund Phelps. This book assembles the field's leading figures to highlight the continuing influence of his ideas from the past four decades. Addressing the most important current debates in macroeconomic theory, it focuses on the rates at which new technologies arise and information about markets is dispersed, information imperfections, and the heterogeneity of beliefs as determinants of an economy's performance. The contributions, which represent a breadth of contemporary theoretical approaches, cover topics including the real effects of monetary disturbances, difficulties in expectations formation, structural factors in unemployment, and sources of technical progress. Based on an October 2001 conference honoring Phelps, this incomparable volume provides the most comprehensive and authoritative account in years of the present state of macroeconomics while also pointing to its future. The fifteen chapters are by the editors and by Daron Acemoglu, Jess Benhabib, Guillermo A. Calvo, Oya Celasun, Michael D. Goldberg, Bruce Greenwald, James J. Heckman, Bart Hobijn, Peter Howitt, Hehui Jin, Charles I. Jones, Michael Kumhof, Mordecai Kurz, David Laibson, Lars Ljungqvist, N. Gregory Mankiw, Dale T. Mortensen, Maurizio Motolese, Stephen Nickell, Luca Nunziata, Wolfgang Ochel, Christopher A. Pissarides, Glenda Quintini, Ricardo Reis, Andrea Repetto, Thomas J. Sargent, Jeremy Tobacman, and Gianluca Violante. Commenting are Olivier J. Blanchard, Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Mark Gertler, Robert E. Hall, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., David H. Papell, Robert A. Pollak, Robert M. Solow, Nancy L. Stokey, and Lars E. O. Svensson. Also included are reflections by Phelps, a preface by Paul A. Samuelson, and the editors' introduction.

Download or read book Monetary Economics in the 1980 s written by Forrest Capie and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-19 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the first eight lectures delivered in honour of Henry Thornton the economist, at City University, London. Seven of the lectures are by monetary economists and one is by a Governer of the Bank of England. Exchange rates, macroeconomics, and interest rates are discussed.

Download or read book Acting under Uncertainty written by George M. von Furstenberg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.

Download or read book Learning to Become Rational written by Markus Zenner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-09 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. 1 Rational Expectations and Learning to Become Rational A characteristic feature of dynamic economic models is that, if future states of the economy are uncertain, the expectations of agents mat ter. Producers have to decide today which amount of a good they will produce not knowing what demand will be tomorrow. Consumers have to decide what they spend for consumption today not knowing what prices will prevail tomorrow. Adopting the neo-classical point of view that economic agents are 'rational' in the sense that they behave in their own best interest given their expectations about future states of the ecomomy it is usually assumed that agents are Bayesian deci sion makers. But, as LUCAS points out, there remains an element of indeterminacy: Unfortunately, the general hypothesis that economic agents are Bayesian decision makers has, in many applications, lit tle empirical content: without some way of infering what an agent's subjective view of the future is, this hypothesis is of no help in understanding his behavior. Even psychotic behavior can be (and today, is) understood as "rational", given a sufficiently abnormal view of relevant probabili ties. To practice economics, we need some way (short of psychoanalysis, one hopes) of understanding which decision problem agents are solving. (LucAs (1977, p. 15)) 2 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1. 1.

Download or read book The Joan Robinson Legacy written by Ingrid H. Rima and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 1991. The undertakings within this book are testimony to the professional legacy Joan Robinson left behind. The contributors discuss her irreverence for established theory, her seemingly unquenchable zest for intellectual argument, doggedly pursued on the conviction that she was at least morally right, the sharpness of her wit, along with her occasionally unconventional mode of dress and her enjoyment of nature. This includes a biographical memoir and concludes with a bibliography of the writings of Robinson.

Download or read book Economic Analysis of Markets and Games written by Partha Dasgupta and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These original essays focus on a wide range of topics related to Frank Hahn'sdistinguished work in economics. Ranging from market analysis and game theory to the microeconomicfoundations of macroeconomics and from equilibrium and optimality with missing markets to economicsand society, they reflect the diversity of modem research in economic theory. What distinguishesHahn's work and many of the essays in this book is that the motivation often comes from practicalconcerns about unemployment, savings and investment, poverty, or the stability of markets.The essaysin Part I deal with the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics - a field in which Hahn has madeimportant contributions, most notably in the theory of monetary economics. Topics include anevaluation of Hahn's contribution to the theory of distribution and such macroeconomic themes ascoordination failure, multiple equilibria, and strategic issues.Part II contains recentcontributions to game theory reflecting Hahn's interest in the question of what is rationalbehavior. The essays in Part III concentrate on general-equilibrium theory with missing markets, afield in which Hahn has made major advances. Although the essays address a different set of issues,they share with Hahn's works such themes as market failure, indeterminacy of equilibrium, and therole of money.Partha Dasgupta is Professor of Economics at Cambridge University. Douglas Gale isProfessor of Economics at Boston University. Oliver Hart is Professor of Economics at theMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Eric Maskin is Professor of Economics at HarvardUniversity.

Download or read book Economic Evolution Learning and Complexity written by Uwe Cantner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The twelve papers in this collection grew out of the workshop on "Eco nomic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity" held at the University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany on May 23-25, 1997. The Augsburg workshop was the second of two events in the Euroconference Series on Evolutionary Economics, the first of which was held in Athens, Greece in September 1993. A special issue of the Journal of Evolutionary Econo mics (1993(4)) edited by Yannis Katsoulacos on "Evolutionary and Neo classical Perspectives on Market Structure and Economic Growth" con tains selected papers from the Athens conference. The Athens conference explored neoclassical and evolutionary perspectives on technological competition and increasing returns. It helped to identify the dis tinguishing features of evolutionary scholarship. The Augsburg workshop was more oriented toward exploring methodological issues in evolutiona of the papers employed new me ry and related scholarship. A number thods, such as genetic programming and experimental analysis, some developed new econometric techniques or raised new empirical issues in evolutionary economics, and some relied on simulation techniques. Twelve papers covering a range of areas were selected for this collection. The papers address central issues in evolutionary and Schumpeterian accounts of industrial competition, learning, and innovation.