Download or read book Probability written by Rick Durrett and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classic introduction to probability theory for beginning graduate students covers laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theorems, and Brownian motion. It is a comprehensive treatment concentrating on the results that are the most useful for applications. Its philosophy is that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, so there are 200 examples and 450 problems. The fourth edition begins with a short chapter on measure theory to orient readers new to the subject.

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Download or read book A Mathematical Theory of Evidence written by Glenn Shafer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions. This rule, together with the idea of "weights of evidence," leads to both an extensive new theory and a better understanding of the Bayesian theory. The book concludes with a brief treatment of statistical inference and a discussion of the limitations of epistemic probability. Appendices contain mathematical proofs, which are relatively elementary and seldom depend on mathematics more advanced that the binomial theorem.

Download or read book Random Processes for Engineers written by Bruce Hajek and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-12 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This engaging introduction to random processes provides students with the critical tools needed to design and evaluate engineering systems that must operate reliably in uncertain environments. A brief review of probability theory and real analysis of deterministic functions sets the stage for understanding random processes, whilst the underlying measure theoretic notions are explained in an intuitive, straightforward style. Students will learn to manage the complexity of randomness through the use of simple classes of random processes, statistical means and correlations, asymptotic analysis, sampling, and effective algorithms. Key topics covered include: • Calculus of random processes in linear systems • Kalman and Wiener filtering • Hidden Markov models for statistical inference • The estimation maximization (EM) algorithm • An introduction to martingales and concentration inequalities. Understanding of the key concepts is reinforced through over 100 worked examples and 300 thoroughly tested homework problems (half of which are solved in detail at the end of the book).

Download or read book Teaching at Its Best written by Linda B. Nilson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-20 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Teaching at Its Best This third edition of the best-selling handbook offers faculty at all levels an essential toolbox of hundreds of practical teaching techniques, formats, classroom activities, and exercises, all of which can be implemented immediately. This thoroughly revised edition includes the newest portrait of the Millennial student; current research from cognitive psychology; a focus on outcomes maps; the latest legal options on copyright issues; and how to best use new technology including wikis, blogs, podcasts, vodcasts, and clickers. Entirely new chapters include subjects such as matching teaching methods with learning outcomes, inquiry-guided learning, and using visuals to teach, and new sections address Felder and Silverman's Index of Learning Styles, SCALE-UP classrooms, multiple true-false test items, and much more. Praise for the Third Edition of Teaching at Its BestEveryone veterans as well as novices will profit from reading Teaching at Its Best, for it provides both theory and practical suggestions for handling all of the problems one encounters in teaching classes varying in size, ability, and motivation." Wilbert McKeachie, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, and coauthor, McKeachie's Teaching TipsThis new edition of Dr. Nilson's book, with its completely updated material and several new topics, is an even more powerful collection of ideas and tools than the last. What a great resource, especially for beginning teachers but also for us veterans!" L. Dee Fink, author, Creating Significant Learning ExperiencesThis third edition of Teaching at Its Best is successful at weaving the latest research on teaching and learning into what was already a thorough exploration of each topic. New information on how we learn, how students develop, and innovations in instructional strategies complement the solid foundation established in the first two editions." Marilla D. Svinicki, Department of Psychology, The University of Texas, Austin, and coauthor, McKeachie's Teaching Tips

Download or read book Fundamentals of Biostatistics written by Bernard Rosner and published by Cengage Learning. This book was released on 2015-07-29 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bernard Rosner's FUNDAMENTALS OF BIOSTATISTICS is a practical introduction to the methods, techniques, and computation of statistics with human subjects. It prepares students for their future courses and careers by introducing the statistical methods most often used in medical literature. Rosner minimizes the amount of mathematical formulation (algebra-based) while still giving complete explanations of all the important concepts. As in previous editions, a major strength of this book is that every new concept is developed systematically through completely worked out examples from current medical research problems. Most methods are illustrated with specific instructions as to implementation using software either from SAS, Stata, R, Excel or Minitab. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

Download or read book Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data written by Lang Wu and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-11-11 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although standard mixed effects models are useful in a range of studies, other approaches must often be used in correlation with them when studying complex or incomplete data. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data discusses commonly used mixed effects models and presents appropriate approaches to address dropouts, missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. For each class of mixed effects model, the author reviews the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data. An overview of general models and methods, along with motivating examples After presenting real data examples and outlining general approaches to the analysis of longitudinal/clustered data and incomplete data, the book introduces linear mixed effects (LME) models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models, and semiparametric and nonparametric mixed effects models. It also includes general approaches for the analysis of complex data with missing values, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. Self-contained coverage of specific topics Subsequent chapters delve more deeply into missing data problems, covariate measurement errors, and censored responses in mixed effects models. Focusing on incomplete data, the book also covers survival and frailty models, joint models of survival and longitudinal data, robust methods for mixed effects models, marginal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for longitudinal or clustered data, and Bayesian methods for mixed effects models. Background material In the appendix, the author provides background information, such as likelihood theory, the Gibbs sampler, rejection and importance sampling methods, numerical integration methods, optimization methods, bootstrap, and matrix algebra. Failure to properly address missing data, measurement errors, and other issues in statistical analyses can lead to severely biased or misleading results. This book explores the biases that arise when naïve methods are used and shows which approaches should be used to achieve accurate results in longitudinal data analysis.

Download or read book Predictive Policing written by Walt L. Perry and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-09-23 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Adult Literacy in OECD Countries written by T. Scott Murray and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In December 1995, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and Statistics Canada jointly published the results of the first International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS). For this survey, representative samples of adults aged 16 to 65 were interviewed and tested in their homes in Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States. This report describes how the survey was conducted in each country and presents all available evidence on the extent of bias in each country's data. Potential sources of bias, including sampling error, non-sampling error, and the cultural appropriateness and construct validity of the assessment instruments, are discussed. The chapters are; (1) "Introduction" (Irwin S. Kirsch and T. Scott Murray); (2) "Sample Design" (Nancy Darcovich); (3) "Survey Response and Weighting" (Nancy Darcovich); (4) "Non-Response Bias" (Nancy Darcovich, Marilyn Binkley, Jon Cohen, Mats Myrberg, and Stefan Persson); (5) "Data Collection and Processing" (Nancy Darcovich and T. Scott Murray); (6) "Incentives and the Motivation To Perform Well" (Stan Jones); (7) "The Measurement of Adult Literacy" (Irwin S. Kirsch, Ann Jungeblut, and Peter B. Mosenthal); (8) "Validity Generalization of the Assessment across Countries" (Don Rock); (9) "An Analysis of Items with Different Parameters across Countries" (Marilyn R. Binkley and Jean R. Pignal); (10) "Scaling and Scale Linking" (Kentaro Yamamoto); (11) "Proficiency Estimation" (Kentaro Yamamoto and Irwin S. Kirsch); (12) "Plausibility of Proficiency Estimates" (Richard Shillington); and (13) "Nested-Factor Models for the Swedish IALS Data" (Bo Palaszewski). Fourteen appendixes contain supplemental information, some survey questionnaires, and additional documentation for various chapters. (Contains 94 tables, 12 figures, and 74 references.) (SLD)

Download or read book Flexible Imputation of Missing Data Second Edition written by Stef van Buuren and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-07-17 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Missing data pose challenges to real-life data analysis. Simple ad-hoc fixes, like deletion or mean imputation, only work under highly restrictive conditions, which are often not met in practice. Multiple imputation replaces each missing value by multiple plausible values. The variability between these replacements reflects our ignorance of the true (but missing) value. Each of the completed data set is then analyzed by standard methods, and the results are pooled to obtain unbiased estimates with correct confidence intervals. Multiple imputation is a general approach that also inspires novel solutions to old problems by reformulating the task at hand as a missing-data problem. This is the second edition of a popular book on multiple imputation, focused on explaining the application of methods through detailed worked examples using the MICE package as developed by the author. This new edition incorporates the recent developments in this fast-moving field. This class-tested book avoids mathematical and technical details as much as possible: formulas are accompanied by verbal statements that explain the formula in accessible terms. The book sharpens the reader’s intuition on how to think about missing data, and provides all the tools needed to execute a well-grounded quantitative analysis in the presence of missing data.

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence written by George F. Luger and published by Pearson Higher Ed. This book was released on 2011-11-21 with total page 779 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the eBook of the printed book and may not include any media, website access codes, or print supplements that may come packaged with the bound book. Artificial Intelligence: Structures and Strategies for Complex Problem Solving is ideal for a one- or two-semester undergraduate course on AI. In this accessible, comprehensive text, George Luger captures the essence of artificial intelligence–solving the complex problems that arise wherever computer technology is applied. Ideal for an undergraduate course in AI, the Sixth Edition presents the fundamental concepts of the discipline first then goes into detail with the practical information necessary to implement the algorithms and strategies discussed. Readers learn how to use a number of different software tools and techniques to address the many challenges faced by today’s computer scientists.

Download or read book Bayesian Philosophy of Science written by Jan Sprenger and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-23 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should we reason in science? Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann offer a refreshing take on classical topics in philosophy of science, using a single key concept to explain and to elucidate manifold aspects of scientific reasoning. They present good arguments and good inferences as being characterized by their effect on our rational degrees of belief. Refuting the view that there is no place for subjective attitudes in 'objective science', Sprenger and Hartmann explain the value of convincing evidence in terms of a cycle of variations on the theme of representing rational degrees of belief by means of subjective probabilities (and changing them by Bayesian conditionalization). In doing so, they integrate Bayesian inference—the leading theory of rationality in social science—with the practice of 21st century science. Bayesian Philosophy of Science thereby shows how modeling such attitudes improves our understanding of causes, explanations, confirming evidence, and scientific models in general. It combines a scientifically minded and mathematically sophisticated approach with conceptual analysis and attention to methodological problems of modern science, especially in statistical inference, and is therefore a valuable resource for philosophers and scientific practitioners.

Download or read book Introduction to Natural Language Processing written by Jacob Eisenstein and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-10-01 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A survey of computational methods for understanding, generating, and manipulating human language, which offers a synthesis of classical representations and algorithms with contemporary machine learning techniques. This textbook provides a technical perspective on natural language processing—methods for building computer software that understands, generates, and manipulates human language. It emphasizes contemporary data-driven approaches, focusing on techniques from supervised and unsupervised machine learning. The first section establishes a foundation in machine learning by building a set of tools that will be used throughout the book and applying them to word-based textual analysis. The second section introduces structured representations of language, including sequences, trees, and graphs. The third section explores different approaches to the representation and analysis of linguistic meaning, ranging from formal logic to neural word embeddings. The final section offers chapter-length treatments of three transformative applications of natural language processing: information extraction, machine translation, and text generation. End-of-chapter exercises include both paper-and-pencil analysis and software implementation. The text synthesizes and distills a broad and diverse research literature, linking contemporary machine learning techniques with the field's linguistic and computational foundations. It is suitable for use in advanced undergraduate and graduate-level courses and as a reference for software engineers and data scientists. Readers should have a background in computer programming and college-level mathematics. After mastering the material presented, students will have the technical skill to build and analyze novel natural language processing systems and to understand the latest research in the field.

Download or read book A Unifying Field in Logics Neutrosophic Logic Neutrosophy Neutrosophic Set Neutrosophic Probability fourth edition written by Florentin Smarandache and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on 2005 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: N-Norm and N-conorm are extended in Neutrosophic Logic/Set.

Download or read book Preference Belief and Similarity written by Amos Tversky and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003-11-21 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.

Download or read book Fundamentals of Fuzzy Sets written by Didier Dubois and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 660 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fundamentals of Fuzzy Sets covers the basic elements of fuzzy set theory. Its four-part organization provides easy referencing of recent as well as older results in the field. The first part discusses the historical emergence of fuzzy sets, and delves into fuzzy set connectives, and the representation and measurement of membership functions. The second part covers fuzzy relations, including orderings, similarity, and relational equations. The third part, devoted to uncertainty modelling, introduces possibility theory, contrasting and relating it with probabilities, and reviews information measures of specificity and fuzziness. The last part concerns fuzzy sets on the real line - computation with fuzzy intervals, metric topology of fuzzy numbers, and the calculus of fuzzy-valued functions. Each chapter is written by one or more recognized specialists and offers a tutorial introduction to the topics, together with an extensive bibliography.