Download or read book Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from Formation to Maturity Using Ensemble Based Data Assimilation written by Christopher Hartman and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The studies comprising this dissertation use a state-of-the-art ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) system developed at The Pennsylvania State University to improve forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) during two of the least predictable stages of their lifecycle: formation (i.e., tropical cyclogenesis; hereafter TCG) and rapid intensification (RI). These improvements are realized by assimilating infrared (IR) brightness temperatures (BTs) observed by geostationary satellites under both clear and cloudy conditions. The all-sky IR BTs assimilated by the DA system help to constrain the initial moisture estimates within the core of the developing system in analyses via the strong ensemble correlations that exist between moisture content and simulated BTs. It is shown that forecasts initialized from these analyses exhibit a more realistic convective evolution, which translates to improved prediction of TCG and RI. For the case of TCG, the assimilation of upper-tropospheric water vapor channel BTs observed by the Meteosat-10 Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument improves the timing of TCG in forecasts of Hurricane Irma (2017). In an experiment that withheld the BTs, TCG was premature by at least 24 hours due to an overestimation of the spatial coverage of deep convection within the African Easterly Wave (AEW) that Irma formed from. Spurious convection led to stronger low-level convergence and the earlier spin-up of a low-level meso-[beta]-scale (i.e., 20 -- 200 km) vortex. This was ameliorated by assimilating all-sky IR BTs. Furthermore, the substantial impact of initial moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance is revealed by initializing ensemble forecasts with only the initial moisture perturbations retained. Relative to an ensemble with initial perturbations to all variables, at least half of the intensity forecast uncertainty is attributed to initial moisture uncertainty within the AEW. These results show the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatio-temporal water vapor observations for ingestion into DA systems. For the case of RI, the assimilation of upper-tropospheric water vapor channel BTs observed by the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) led to significant improvements in the intensity forecasts of Hurricane Dorian (2019) at lead times of 48 hours and longer. These improvements are shown to be a result of better analyzed cloud fields as well as more intense initial primary and secondary circulations. Despite these improvements, the vortex exhibited an unrealistically broad structure that was fine-tuned by the additional assimilation of tail Doppler radar (TDR) radial velocities collected by NOAA P-3 aircraft. The simultaneous assimilation of all-sky IR BTs and radar observations therefore resulted in realistic forecasts of the track, structure, and RI of Dorian. These results underscore the potential of TDR observations to complement the benefits gained by assimilating all-sky IR BTs.
Download or read book The National Meteorological Center written by National Meteorological Center (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The NMC Spectral Model written by Joseph G. Sela and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Ocean Data Assimilation Methodologies Forecasting and Reanalysis written by Shiqiu Peng and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-12-01 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Atmospheric Sciences written by Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-11-05 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Parameterization Schemes written by David J. Stensrud and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-05-03 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents: 1.
Download or read book Extratropical Cyclones written by Chester Newton and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-22 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is composed of 12 review papers invited for the Palmen Memorial Symposium on Extratropical Cyclones held in Helsinki, Finland, 29 August - 2 September 1988. To celebrate the 90th anniversary of the birth of Professor Erik Palmén, this symposium was organized to give a state-of-the-art picture of research on the structure and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, a topic which Palmén pioneered during the era of advances in aerological analysis. This symposium was organized by the Geophysical Society of Finland and the American Meteorological Society in cooperation with the Danish, Norwegian and Swedish Geophysical Societies. Extratropical Cyclones offers state-of-the-art information on extratropical cyclones, and recent findings by European and American authorities in various subject areas. The first two chapters discuss Palmen's works on cyclones and his early general circulation concepts. The ten chapters following chronicle the advances in understanding cyclones; the theory, structure, and physical processes of cyclones; orographic cyclogenesis; and more. Extratropical Cyclones also contains synoptic case analyses, modeling results, examples of the phenomena discussed, and abundant references. While particular aspects are emphasized in the individual contributions, the book as a whole summarizes the major features of various kinds of extratropical cyclones based on observational analyses, theory and numerical experimentation. This volume is of interest to researchers in dynamic and synoptic meteorology, climatology and mesometeorology, as well as in numerical modeling and weather forecasting. It is also useful for meteorology courses at graduate and upper undergraduate levels.
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Atmospheric Modeling Data Assimilation and Predictability written by Eugenia Kalnay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones written by Richard Anthes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-29 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical Cyclones and hurricanes, long feared for the death and destruction that often accompanies them, are among the most fascinating of atmospheric phenomena. Created by thermodynamic processes, they unleash vast amounts of energy and influence a wide variety of natural processes along their paths. Richard Anthes tells the story of tropical cyclones creation and destruction, of meteorology's successes in understanding, modeling and predicting their behavior, and of the attempts to modify them. The book begins with a lively introduction to hurricanes, their awesome power, and their effects on individuals and societies in the past and present. The characteristics of the mature hurricane are revealed by consideration of rawinsonde, aircraft and satellite data. The physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones are treated comprehensively, and illustrated with both qualitative and quantitative examples. The role of the planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection and radiation are all discussed in detail. Progress in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones is carefully reviewed. Modern, three-dimensional models succeed in simulating observed features such as the eye and spiral rain bands and in predicting storm motion over time intervals of three days. Current capabilities to predict and modify hurricanes and tropical cyclones are fully examined. The methods and difficulties of operational forecasting, the economic aspects of storm predictions, and the trends in accuracy of offical forecasts are all considered. The potential benefits and scientific problems associated with hurricane modification are discussed as part of a review of experimental and theoretical results on the consquences of seeding hurricane clouds. A unique feature of the book is a thorough treatment of the interactions between storm and ocean, with both observations and thery being integrated to provide a complete description.
Download or read book Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-05-23 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most significant, energetic, yet not well understood, oceanographic features in the Americas is the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current System (LCS), consisting of the Loop Current (LC) and the Loop Current Eddies (LCEs) it sheds. Understanding the dynamics of the LCS is fundamental to understanding the Gulf of Mexico's full oceanographic system, and vice versa. Hurricane intensity, offshore safety, harmful algal blooms, oil spill response, the entire Gulf food chain, shallow water nutrient supply, the fishing industry, tourism, and the Gulf Coast economy are all affected by the position, strength, and structure of the LC and associated eddies. This report recommends a strategy for addressing the key gaps in general understanding of LCS processes, in order to instigate a significant improvement in predicting LC/LCE position, evolving structure, extent, and speed, which will increase overall understanding of Gulf of Mexico circulation and to promote safe oil and gas operations and disaster response in the Gulf of Mexico. This strategy includes advice on how to design a long-term observational campaign and complementary data assimilation and numerical modeling efforts.
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-01-20 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
