Download or read book Uncertainty Within Economic Models written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2014 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Studying this work in real time taught me a lot, but seeing it laid out in conceptual, rather than chronological, order provides even clearer insights into the evolution of this provocative line of research. Hansen and Sargent are two of the best economists of our time, they are also among the most dedicated teachers in our profession. They have once again moved the research frontier, and with this book provide a roadmap for the rest of us to follow. This is a must-have for anyone interested in modeling uncertainty, ambiguity and robustness."Stanley E ZinWilliam R Berkley Professor of Economics and BusinessLeonard N Stern School of BusinessNew York UniversityWritten by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

Download or read book Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory written by Richard Michael Cyert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We began this research with the objective of applying Bayesian methods of analysis to various aspects of economic theory. We were attracted to the Bayesian approach because it seemed the best analytic framework available for dealing with decision making under uncertainty, and the research presented in this book has only served to strengthen our belief in the appropriateness and usefulness of this methodology. More specif ically, we believe that the concept of organizational learning is funda mental to decision making under uncertainty in economics and that the Bayesian framework is the most appropriate for developing that concept. The central and unifying theme of this book is decision making under uncertainty in microeconomic theory. Our fundamental aim is to explore the ways in which firms and households make decisions and to develop models that have a strong empirical connection. Thus, we have attempted to contribute to economic theory by formalizing models of the actual pro cess of decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methodology pro vides the appropriate vehicle for this formalization.

Download or read book Adaptive Economic Models written by Richard H. Day and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptive Economic Models provides information pertinent to the adaptive processes in economics. This book discusses the developments on research in the field of adaptive economics. Organized into 23 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the study of economic processes using concepts of adaptation. This text then explains how concepts arising from biology can be formulated in such a way that they can be a source of insight into man's social systems. Other chapters present a general view of the adaptation of the firm to its environment and discuss how a firm with a definite commodity in mind can decide whether to enter a given established market. This book discusses as well the simple duopoly problem in which firms are in error in the sense that they specify an incomplete model and add a random error term. The final chapter deals with the set of models and problems for the development of a theory of money and financial institutions. This book is a valuable resource for economic theorists and economists.

Download or read book Uncertainty Within Economic Models written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-09-09 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

Download or read book Theory and Implementation of Economic Models for Sustainable Development written by J.C. van den Bergh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread concern for long-term environmental issues in relation to economic processes and developments. Among the concerned scientists are economists, who have taken up the challenge to apply economic insights and tools for the study of long-term environment-economy interactions, and to give the concept of sustainable development 'economic hands and feet'. This book presents a pluralistic perspective on efforts, problems and successes in this area. This collection of papers was originally prepared for an international symposium titled Economic Modelling of Sustainable Development: Between Theory and Practice, which was hosted by the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, on December 20th 1996. The main motivation for this symposium was that the usefulness of the concept of sustainable development for theoretical and applied modelling is still being debated; growth theorists, resource economists, ecological economists, policy makers and many others are trying to deal with the concept in various, and sometimes conflicting, ways. The aim of the symposium was to bring together different theoretical and implementational perspectives on modelling for sustainable development. We hope that this volume will inform a wide audience about the perspectives and progress in this important area of research, as well as stimulate further research, notably on applied modelling and practical methods for the analysis of sustainable development at various (spatial) scales. The papers have, in due course, been revised several times based on comments made by discus sants, referees and the editors.

Download or read book Model Uncertainty Learning and the Gains from Coordination written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-12-27 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the functioning of the world economy, but also learning about the “true” model on the part of policymakers. The paper reports estimates of plausible alternative versions of a standard, two-country model. Activist policy (either coordinated or uncoordinated) may produce large welfare losses in the absence of learning, if policymakers believe in the wrong model; hence exogenous money targets and freely flexible exchange rates may be best. However, model learning (from observations on macroeconomic variables) causes coordinated policies to dominate activist uncoordinated policies or exogenous money targets.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book The Quarterly Journal of Economics written by Charles Franklin Dunbar and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vols. 1-22 include the section "Recent publications upon economics".

Download or read book Rational Expectations Econometrics written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.

Download or read book Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models are fundamental for estimating the possible costs and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a wide array of models to perform such analysis, differing in the level of technological detail, treatment of technological progress, spatial and sector details, and representation of the interaction of the energy sector to the overall economy and environment. These differences impact model results, including cost estimates. More fundamentally, these models differ as to how they represent fundamental processes that have a large impact on policy analysis-such as how different models represent technological learning and cost reductions that come through increasing production volumes, or how different models represent baseline conditions. Reliable estimates of the costs and potential impacts on the United States economy of various emissions reduction and other mitigation strategies are critical to the development of the federal climate change research and development portfolio. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Academies organized a workshop, summarized in this volume, to consider some of these types of modeling issues.

Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

Download or read book A Recent History of Recognized Economic Thought Contributions of the Nobel Laureates to Economic Science written by Lee H. Dymond and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2015-05-20 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1969, 75 people have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. Recent Recognized "A History of Economic Thought - Contributions of the Nobel Laureates to Economic Science" describes their major accomplishments in a manner so all readers, regardless of their knowledge of economics, can appreciate the efforts of these scholars and their impact on the development and progress of economic science. Begin with a brief tour of economic thought and the factors that have influenced economic doctrine from the 16th through the 20th century. Then, for each Nobel Laureate, learn about their background and professional affiliations. Complete your understanding of each Laureate's accomplishments with a concise, relatively non-technical summary of their Nobel Prize Lecture.

Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.

Download or read book Entrepreneurial Action written by Andrew C. Corbett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-07-17 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 14 addresses the central issue of entrepreneurial action: while many factors are important to the phenomenon of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship does not happen until someone takes action!

Download or read book Issues in Energy Research and Application 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 1186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Energy Research and Application / 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Energy Economics. The editors have built Issues in Energy Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Energy Economics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Energy Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Download or read book A New Contract with the Middle Class written by Richard V. Reeves and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A better future for the middle class is no longer an aspiration. It is a necessity. The disintegration of the American Dream is more visible than ever before. The understanding—the contract—that existed between individuals willing to work and contribute and a society willing to support those individuals when they needed it is falling apart. Now is the time to draft a new contract with America's middle class. One that rewards work and service, improves upward mobility, and reduces inequality. In A New Contract with the Middle Class Brookings senior fellows Isabel Sawhill and Richard Reeves outline the foundations of what that new contract should be, based on discussions they had across the country with middle-class Americans. Sawhill and Reeves' recommendations provide solutions to issues that came up time and time again in these conversations: money, time, relationships, health, and respect. Some of the bold recommendations included in A New Contract with the Middle Class: • Eliminate virtually all income taxes paid by the middle class. • Raise the minimum wage and subsidize wages below the median with a worker tax credit. • Offer scholarships for those who undertake at least a year of national service. • Ensure four weeks of paid leave per year. • Align school and working hours and boost child care to help working parents. America is only as strong as the American middle-class. A New Contract with the Middle Class proposes a new way forward.

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics