Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Time Series in High Dimension the General Dynamic Factor Model written by Marc Hallin and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2020-03-30 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.

Download or read book Panel Data Econometrics written by Donggyu Sul and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last 20 years, econometric theory on panel data has developed rapidly, particularly for analyzing common behaviors among individuals over time. Meanwhile, the statistical methods employed by applied researchers have not kept up-to-date. This book attempts to fill in this gap by teaching researchers how to use the latest panel estimation methods correctly. Almost all applied economics articles use panel data or panel regressions. However, many empirical results from typical panel data analyses are not correctly executed. This book aims to help applied researchers to run panel regressions correctly and avoid common mistakes. The book explains how to model cross-sectional dependence, how to estimate a few key common variables, and how to identify them. It also provides guidance on how to separate out the long-run relationship and common dynamic and idiosyncratic dynamic relationships from a set of panel data. Aimed at applied researchers who want to learn about panel data econometrics by running statistical software, this book provides clear guidance and is supported by a full range of online teaching and learning materials. It includes practice sections on MATLAB, STATA, and GAUSS throughout, along with short and simple econometric theories on basic panel regressions for those who are unfamiliar with econometric theory on traditional panel regressions.

Download or read book Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models written by Mike West and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 720 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.

Download or read book DSGE Models in Macroeconomics written by Nathan Balke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy

Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Download or read book Econometric Models For Industrial Organization written by Matthew Shum and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016-12-14 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.

Download or read book Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data written by Daniel Peña and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-04 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master advanced topics in the analysis of large, dynamically dependent datasets with this insightful resource Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data delivers a comprehensive presentation of the statistical and machine learning methods useful for analyzing and forecasting large and dynamically dependent data sets. The book presents automatic procedures for modelling and forecasting large sets of time series data. Beginning with some visualization tools, the book discusses procedures and methods for finding outliers, clusters, and other types of heterogeneity in big dependent data. It then introduces various dimension reduction methods, including regularization and factor models such as regularized Lasso in the presence of dynamical dependence and dynamic factor models. The book also covers other forecasting procedures, including index models, partial least squares, boosting, and now-casting. It further presents machine-learning methods, including neural network, deep learning, classification and regression trees and random forests. Finally, procedures for modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal dependent data are also presented. Throughout the book, the advantages and disadvantages of the methods discussed are given. The book uses real-world examples to demonstrate applications, including use of many R packages. Finally, an R package associated with the book is available to assist readers in reproducing the analyses of examples and to facilitate real applications. Analysis of Big Dependent Data includes a wide variety of topics for modeling and understanding big dependent data, like: New ways to plot large sets of time series An automatic procedure to build univariate ARMA models for individual components of a large data set Powerful outlier detection procedures for large sets of related time series New methods for finding the number of clusters of time series and discrimination methods , including vector support machines, for time series Broad coverage of dynamic factor models including new representations and estimation methods for generalized dynamic factor models Discussion on the usefulness of lasso with time series and an evaluation of several machine learning procedure for forecasting large sets of time series Forecasting large sets of time series with exogenous variables, including discussions of index models, partial least squares, and boosting. Introduction of modern procedures for modeling and forecasting spatio-temporal data Perfect for PhD students and researchers in business, economics, engineering, and science: Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data also belongs to the bookshelves of practitioners in these fields who hope to improve their understanding of statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing and forecasting big dependent data.

Download or read book Large Dimensional Factor Analysis written by Jushan Bai and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large Dimensional Factor Analysis provides a survey of the main theoretical results for large dimensional factor models, emphasizing results that have implications for empirical work. The authors focus on the development of the static factor models and on the use of estimated factors in subsequent estimation and inference. Large Dimensional Factor Analysis discusses how to determine the number of factors, how to conduct inference when estimated factors are used in regressions, how to assess the adequacy pf observed variables as proxies for latent factors, how to exploit the estimated factors to test unit root tests and common trends, and how to estimate panel cointegration models.

Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Download or read book Identification of Dynamic Systems written by Rolf Isermann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 705 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precise dynamic models of processes are required for many applications, ranging from control engineering to the natural sciences and economics. Frequently, such precise models cannot be derived using theoretical considerations alone. Therefore, they must be determined experimentally. This book treats the determination of dynamic models based on measurements taken at the process, which is known as system identification or process identification. Both offline and online methods are presented, i.e. methods that post-process the measured data as well as methods that provide models during the measurement. The book is theory-oriented and application-oriented and most methods covered have been used successfully in practical applications for many different processes. Illustrative examples in this book with real measured data range from hydraulic and electric actuators up to combustion engines. Real experimental data is also provided on the Springer webpage, allowing readers to gather their first experience with the methods presented in this book. Among others, the book covers the following subjects: determination of the non-parametric frequency response, (fast) Fourier transform, correlation analysis, parameter estimation with a focus on the method of Least Squares and modifications, identification of time-variant processes, identification in closed-loop, identification of continuous time processes, and subspace methods. Some methods for nonlinear system identification are also considered, such as the Extended Kalman filter and neural networks. The different methods are compared by using a real three-mass oscillator process, a model of a drive train. For many identification methods, hints for the practical implementation and application are provided. The book is intended to meet the needs of students and practicing engineers working in research and development, design and manufacturing.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.

Download or read book Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data second edition written by Jeffrey M. Wooldridge and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 1095 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of a comprehensive state-of-the-art graduate level text on microeconometric methods, substantially revised and updated. The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.

Download or read book Dynamical Modelling Estimation in Wastewater Treatment Processes written by D. Dochain and published by IWA Publishing. This book was released on 2001-12-01 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Environmental quality is becoming an increasing concern in our society. In that context, waste and wastewater treatment, and more specifically biological wastewater treatment processes play an important role. In this book, we concentrate on the mathematical modelling of these processes. The main purpose is to provide the increasing number of professionals who are using models to design, optimise and control wastewater treatment processes with the necessary background for their activities of model building, selection and calibration. The book deals specifically with dynamic models because they allow us to describe the behaviour of treatment plants under the highly dynamic conditions that we want them to operate (e.g. Sequencing Batch Reactors) or we have to operate them (e.g. storm conditions, spills). Further extension is provided to new reactor systems for which partial differential equation descriptions are necessary to account for their distributed parameter nature (e.g. settlers, fixed bed reactors). The model building exercise is introduced as a step-wise activity that, in this book, starts from mass balancing principles. In many cases, different hypotheses and their corresponding models can be proposed for a particular process. It is therefore essential to be able to select from these candidate models in an objective manner. To this end, structure characterisation methods are introduced. Important sections of the book deal with the collection of high quality data using optimal experimental design, parameter estimation techniques for calibration and the on-line use of models in state and parameter estimators. Contents Dynamical Modelling Dynamical Mass Balance Model Building and Analysis Structure Characterisation (SC) Structural Identifiability Practical Identifiability and Optimal Experiment Design for Parameter Estimation (OED/PE) Estimation of Model Parameters Recursive State and Parameter Estimation Glossary Nomenclature