Download or read book Hysteresis in Labor Markets Evidence from Professional Long Term Forecasts written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-24 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book United States written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-24 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. economy is in the longest expansion in recorded history. Unemployment is at levels not seen since the late 1960s, real wages are rising, and inflationary pressures remain subdued. Economic activity, while still growing above potential, is expected to slow to around 2.6 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2020.
Download or read book European Economic Governance after the Eurozone and COVID 19 Crises written by Ioannis Papadopoulos and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2022-02-15 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 health crisis came as a tremendous shock to the world, and to the EU more particularly, only a few years after the Eurozone crisis. The pandemic exacerbated the old structural differences in the economic models between the South and the North of Europe. However, this time, the response of the EU was of a completely different nature: an impressive array of fiscal and monetary policy instruments was mobilized to counteract the shock of the pandemic and to restore confidence. Is there reason to be optimistic in these times of uncertainty? This volume explores possible answers to this question, bringing together several renowned European intellectuals and experts from the fields of economics, law, and public policy to offer their thoughts. The book will stimulate discussion on the quality of institutions and growth sustainability, and contains ideas on the future of Europe and the reorganization of European economic governance. It analyzes the basic fiscal and monetary policy tools used by the EU to tackle the Eurozone and COVID-19 pandemic crises. Several aspects of the EU Banking Union and possible structural reforms of the banking sector are also discussed, as is the role of Credit Rating Agencies as tools of economic prediction.
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys Euro Area 2021 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-09-10 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic forced most euro area economies into repeated lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021 that lead the euro area into its deepest recession on record. The policy reaction to the crisis was large and rapid. It included, among others, significant monetary and fiscal stimuli, but also an ambitious European plan (“Next Generation EU”) to promote economic recovery financed by joint borrowing.
Download or read book Staff Studies for the World Econ Outlook August 1987 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the long-term growth performance of the major industrial countries and discusses some of the many factors that have been identified as possible sources of the marked slowdown in growth since the early 1970s. According to the view of different demographic developments across countries, it is useful to break the growth of output down into changes in tabor input and changes in labor productivity in order to obtain a basis for cross-country comparisons. Wage behavior in the face of energy price shocks appears to have differed considerably among the major industrial countries. Increased uncertainty, reflecting, in particular, changes in the international economic environment and the stop-go financial policies of several of the major countries during the 1970s, and is frequently cited as a possible reason for the slowdown in growth, mainly through its impact on private investment. Views on the contribution of slower net capital accumulation to the deceleration in growth depend upon assessments of whether the efficiency of investment declined significantly after 1973 and on assumptions made about technological change and the embodiment of technical progress.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook May 1999 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-05-28 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
Download or read book Economists and the Powerful written by Norbert Häring and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Economists and the Powerful: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards" explores the workings of the modern global economy - an economy in which competition has been corrupted and power has a ubiquitous influence upon economic behavior. Based on empirical and theoretical studies by distinguished economists from both the past and present day, this book argues that the true workings of capitalism are very different from the popular myths voiced in mainstream economics. Offering a closer look at the history of economic doctrines - as well as how economists are incentivized - "Economists and the Powerful" exposes how, when and why the theme of power was erased from the radar screens of mainstream economic analysis - and the influence this subversive removal has had upon the modern financial world. For more information please see the book website: www.economistsandthepowerful.anthempressblog.com/
Download or read book Budget Committee Mid session Hearings Fiscal Year 2014 written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on the Budget and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 950 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Staff Studies for The World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Market for College Graduates and Related Aspects of Education and Income written by Seymour Edwin Harris and published by . This book was released on 1949 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No detailed description available for "The Market for College Graduates".
Download or read book Country Studies written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Economic Outlook May 1997 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an outlook for the world economy for 1997. The paper highlights that the world economic growth quickened during 1996 following widespread deceleration of activity in 1995. Economic and financial conditions are generally propitious for the global expansion to continue in 1997 and the medium term at rates at least matching those seen during the past three years. The paper underscores that in many countries, structural reforms are enhancing the role of market forces and thereby strengthening the basis for sustained, robust growth.
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
