Download or read book How Large is the Housing Wealth Effect written by Chris Carroll and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of 'wealth effects' on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as 'habits' in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final long-run effect around 9 cents. Consistent with several recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach is preferable to the currently popular cointegration- based estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence justifies faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.
Download or read book Housing Wealth Effects written by Eric S. Belsky and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Housing Wealth Effect written by Charles W. Calomiris and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Current estimates of housing wealth effects vary widely. We consider the role of omitted variables suggested by economic theory that have been absent in a number of prior studies. Our estimates take into account age composition and wealth distribution (using poverty rates as a proxy), as well as wealth shares (how much of total wealth is comprised of housing vs. stock wealth). We exploit cross-state variation in housing, stock wealth and other variables in a newly assembled panel data set and find that the impact of housing on consumer spending depends crucially on age composition, poverty rates, and the housing wealth share. In particular, young people who are more likely to be credit-constrained, and older homeowners, likely to be "trading down" on their housing stock, experience the largest housing wealth effects, as suggested by theory. Also, as suggested by theory, housing wealth effects are higher in state-years with higher housing wealth shares, and in state-years with higher poverty rates (likely reflecting the greater importance of credit constraints for those observations). Taking these various factors into account implies huge variation over time and across states in the size of housing wealth effects"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Download or read book Housing Wealth Effects written by Adam M. Guren and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide new, time-varying estimates of the housing wealth effect back to the 1980s. We exploit systematic differences in city-level exposure to regional house price cycles to instrument for house prices. Our main findings are that: 1) Large housing wealth effects are not new: we estimate substantial effects back to the mid 1980s; 2) Housing wealth effects were not particularly large in the 2000s; if anything, they were larger prior to 2000; and 3) There is no evidence of a boom-bust asymmetry. We compare these findings to the implications of a standard life-cycle model with borrowing constraints, uninsurable income risk, illiquid housing, and long-term mortgages. The model explains our empirical findings about the insensitivity of the housing wealth effects to changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) distribution, including the dramatic rise in LTVs in the Great Recession. The insensitivity arises in the model for two reasons. First, impatient low-LTV agents have a high elasticity. Second, a rightward shift in the LTV distribution increases not only the number of highly sensitive constrained agents but also the number of underwater agents whose consumption is insensitive to house prices.
Download or read book Analyzing the Effects of Financial and Housing Wealth on Consumption using Micro Data written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-24 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the existence of “wealth effects” derived from net equity (in the form of housing, financial assets, and total net worth) on consumption. The study uses longitudinal household-level data?from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) ?covering about 7,000-9,000 households in the U.S., with the estimations carried over the period 1999-2017. Overall, wealth effects are found to be relatively large and significant for housing wealth, but less so for other types of wealth, including stocks. Furthermore, the analysis shows how these estimated marginal propensities to consume (MPC) from wealth are closely linked to household characteristics, including income and demographic factors. Finally, underlying structural changes in household characteristics point to potentially lower aggregate MPCs from wealth going forward.
Download or read book How Large are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects A New Approach written by Christopher D. Carroll and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple new method for measuring 'wealth effects' on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption 'habits') to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration-based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.
Download or read book Feeling Rich Feeling Poor Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-08 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Households across Europe are struggling with a double crisis—the worst inflation shock since the World War II and a sudden correction in house prices. There is a rich literature on how housing price cycles affect consumer spending, finding mixed results with a wide range of consumption responses to changes in housing wealth. In this paper, using quarterly data on 20 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2023, we analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation-adjusted housing wealth and consumer spending and obtain statistically significant and economically intuitive results. Household consumption responds positively and swiftly to changes in real house prices and gross disposable income as expected. Using the estimated coefficients, we can deduce that the average quarter-on-quarter decline of -1.96 percent in real house prices in the first quarter of 2023 in Europe could dampen consumer spending by about -0.51 percentage points in real terms on a cumulative basis over a horizon of eight quarters.
Download or read book The mythical Housing Wealth Effect written by Charles W. Calomiris and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models used to guide policy, as well as some empirical studies, suggest that the effect of housing wealth on consumption is large and greater than the wealth effect on consumption from stock holdings. Recent theoretical work, in contrast, argues that changes in housing wealth are offset by changes in housing consumption, meaning that unexpected shocks in housing wealth should have little effect on non-housing consumption. We reexamine the impact of housing wealth on non-housing consumption, employing the Case-Quigley-Shiller data on U.S. housing wealth that have been used in prior studies to estimate a large housing wealth effect. Existing empirical work fails to control for the fact that changes in housing wealth may be correlated with changes in expected permanent income, biasing the resulting estimates. Once we control for the endogeneity bias resulting from the correlation between housing wealth and permanent income, we find that housing wealth has a small and insignificant effect on consumption. Additional analysis of time-series results provides further support for that view.
Download or read book The Housing Wealth Effect written by Roine Vestman and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical studies have estimated a big range of consumption response sizes to changes in house prices. Using a quasi-experiment, we estimate a shock of -19.4 percent to house prices in the area surrounding an airport in Stockholm after its operations were unexpectedly continued as a result of political bargaining behind closed doors. This source of price divergence is ideal for identifying housing wealth effects since it is local and unrelated to variations in macroeconomic conditions. Using a household data set with information on the location of primary residence relative to the airport, we find a short-run elasticity with respect to new car purchases of 0.39, corresponding to a one-year marginal propensity for car expenditures of 0.12 cents per dollar lost in housing wealth. Households with high loan-to-value ratios and little bank deposits respond the most. A quantitative model is consistent with the empirical findings and pinpoints important determinants of the response size, which may explain the variation in previous estimates.
Download or read book Has the Effect of Housing Wealth on Household Consumption Been Overestimated New Evidences on Magnitude and Allocation written by Linna Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect of housing wealth on household consumption is puzzling as existing empirical results do not match with theoretical predictions. Existing theories - life cycle theory, permanent income hypothesis and user cost model - suggest that housing wealth impact should be small. However, most prior studies find that Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) out of housing wealth ranges between 0.04 to 0.09, indicating material impact of housing wealth on household consumption. Motivated by this discordance, this study uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to provide a step by step analysis to show how the housing wealth effect decreases as biases from unobserved variables are properly addressed. Once households' unobserved preferences towards consumption and their future expected income are controlled for, our estimated MPC drops significantly. We also directly control for home equity extraction to disentangle the pure wealth effect channel and the collateral channel. Our findings show that a one percent increase in perceived housing wealth is associated with 0.01-0.02 percent increase in real, non-housing consumption after directly controlling for the collateral channel. Our estimated magnitude of housing wealth effect is much smaller than previous findings. Additionally, we find heterogeneity in MPCs across consumption categories - consumptions that are necessary in daily lives such as food and transportation do not respond to changes in perceived housing wealth while households increase their spending on clothes and recreation as housing wealth increases. We also employ an IV approach to disentangle permanent and transitory housing wealth shocks. Our results indicate that it is the deviation between perceived house price appreciation rate and the real house price appreciation rate in fundamental values that drives this small magnitude of MPC out of housing wealth in the short run (in cloth and recreation) and this housing wealth effect will move towards to zero in the long run as the perception converges with the fundamental values.
Download or read book Housing Wealth Effects and the Course of the US Economy written by Eric S. Belsky and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Housing Wealth Effect on Consumption Reconsidered written by Fabian Lindner and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Comparing Wealth Effects written by Karl E. Case and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regressions relating consumption to income and wealth measures, finding a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.
Download or read book How large are housing and financial wealth effects a new approach written by Christopher D. Carroll and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Mythical written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models used to guide policy, as well as some empirical studies, suggest that the effect of housing wealth on consumption is large and greater than the wealth effect on consumption from stock holdings. Recent theoretical work, in contrast, argues that changes in housing wealth are offset by changes in housing consumption, meaning that unexpected shocks in housing wealth should have little effect on non-housing consumption. We reexamine the impact of housing wealth on non-housing consumption, employing the Case-Quigley-Shiller data on U.S. housing wealth that have been used in prior studies to estimate a large housing wealth effect. Existing empirical work fails to control for the fact that changes in housing wealth may be correlated with changes in expected permanent income, biasing the resulting estimates. Once we control for the endogeneity bias resulting from the correlation between housing wealth and permanent income, we find that housing wealth has a small and insignificant effect on consumption. Additional analysis of time-series results provides further support for that view.
Download or read book The Blackwell Companion to the Economics of Housing written by Susan J. Smith and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 2010-03-29 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Blackwell Companion to the Economics of Housing will help students and professionals alike to explore key elements of the housing economy: home prices, housing wealth, mortgage debt, and financial risk. Features 24 original essays, including an editorial introduction and three section overviews Includes 39 world-class authors from a mix of educational and financial organizations in the UK, Europe, Australia, and North America Broadly-based, scholarly, and accessible, serving students and professionals who wish to understand how today’s housing economy works Profiles the role and relevance of housing wealth; the mismanagement of mortgage debt; and the pitfalls and potential of hedging housing risk Key topics include: the housing price bubble and crash; the subprime mortgage crisis in the US and its aftermath; the links between housing wealth, the macroeconomy, and the welfare of home-occupiers; the mitigation of credit and housing investment risks Specific case studies help to illustrate concepts, along with new data sets and analyses to illustrate empirical points
Download or read book The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Non housing Wealth in the United States written by Hilary Williamson Hoynes and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in the United States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth among homeowners. Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b) have argued that the aging of the US population is likely to induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in capital losses for future elderly generations. However, if households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are household savings decisions affected by capital gains in housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980's and find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices. Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity differences
