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Book Getting the Climate Science Facts Right

Download or read book Getting the Climate Science Facts Right written by Medani P. Bhandari and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-09-01 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting the Climate Science Facts Right - discusses climate change science with reference to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Addressing climate change is the most important public priority of the 21st Century. Unlike many issues, however, this issue is being driven by both science and its interface with politics. The main institution for bridging this division between science and international politics is the IPCC. As such it is the main source of the facts from which climate change policy is developed. This book describes the ways in which the IPCC arrives at these facts and so can be sure they are complete and evidence based.Seldom in history has science had such a direct relationship with politics. The negotiation of an international policy regime requires, at its outset, an agreement on the facts. In this case, the facts are scientific, complex and contentious. Governments have recognized this and have, by using the IPCC, set up institutional machinery to provide facts from a source and in a manner that they can accept.The way in which the IPCC functions is unique in that it melds the way in which science achieves consensus with the way governments do at the international level. Starting with a process to examine, review and debate scientific findings leading to a consensus about scientific fact, usually expressed as probabilities that the findings will hold over time, the IPCC then concludes by using the kind of consensus-development mechanism that the United Nations typically uses to achieve agreements leading to the formation of policy regimes.The book examines the structure of the IPCC, its composition and its procedures in order to achieve an understanding of its role and future.

Book Unsettled  Updated and Expanded Edition

Download or read book Unsettled Updated and Expanded Edition written by Steven E. Koonin and published by BenBella Books. This book was released on 2024-06-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this updated and expanded edition of climate scientist Steven Koonin’s groundbreaking book, go behind the headlines to discover the latest eye-opening data about climate change—with unbiased facts and realistic steps for the future. "Greenland’s ice loss is accelerating." "Extreme temperatures are causing more fatalities." "Rapid 'climate action' is essential to avoid a future climate disaster." You've heard all this presented as fact. But according to science, all of these statements are profoundly misleading. With the new edition of Unsettled, Steven Koonin draws on decades of experience—including as a top science advisor to the Obama administration—to clear away the fog and explain what science really says (and doesn't say). With a new introduction, this edition now features reflections on an additional three years of eye-opening data, alternatives to unrealistic “net zero” solutions, global energy inequalities, and the energy crisis arising from the war in Ukraine. When it comes to climate change, the media, politicians, and other prominent voices have declared that “the science is settled.” In reality, the climate is changing, but the why and how aren’t as clear as you’ve probably been led to believe. Koonin takes readers behind the headlines, dispels popular myths, and unveils little-known truths: Despite rising greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures decreased from 1940 to 1970 Models currently used to predict the future do not accurately describe the climate of the past, and modelers themselves strongly doubt their regional predictions There is no compelling evidence that hurricanes are becoming more frequent—or that predictions of rapid sea level rise have any validity Unsettled is a reality check buoyed by hope, offering the truth about climate science—what we know, what we don’t, and what it all means for our future.

Book The Discovery of Global Warming

Download or read book The Discovery of Global Warming written by Spencer R. Weart and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001 a panel representing virtually all the world's governments and climate scientists announced that they had reached a consensus: the world was warming at a rate without precedent during at least the last ten millennia, and that warming was caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases from human activity. The consensus itself was at least a century in the making. The story of how scientists reached their conclusion--by way of unexpected twists and turns and in the face of formidable intellectual, financial, and political obstacles--is told for the first time in The Discovery of Global Warming. Spencer R. Weart lucidly explains the emerging science, introduces us to the major players, and shows us how the Earth's irreducibly complicated climate system was mirrored by the global scientific community that studied it. Unlike familiar tales of Science Triumphant, this book portrays scientists working on bits and pieces of a topic so complex that they could never achieve full certainty--yet so important to human survival that provisional answers were essential. Weart unsparingly depicts the conflicts and mistakes, and how they sometimes led to fruitful results. His book reminds us that scientists do not work in isolation, but interact in crucial ways with the political system and with the general public. The book not only reveals the history of global warming, but also analyzes the nature of modern scientific work as it confronts the most difficult questions about the Earth's future. Table of Contents: Preface 1. How Could Climate Change? 2. Discovering a Possibility 3. A Delicate System 4. A Visible Threat 5. Public Warnings 6. The Erratic Beast 7. Breaking into Politics 8. The Discovery Confirmed Reflections Milestones Notes Further Reading Index Reviews of this book: A soberly written synthesis of science and politics. --Gilbert Taylor, Booklist Reviews of this book: Charting the evolution and confirmation of the theory [of global warming], Spencer R. Weart, director of the Center for the History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, dissects the interwoven threads of research and reveals the political and societal subtexts that colored scientists' views and the public reception their work received. --Andrew C. Revkin, New York Times Book Review Reviews of this book: It took a century for scientists to agree that gases produced by human activity were causing the world to warm up. Now, in an engaging book that reads like a detective story, physicist Weart reports the history of global warming theory, including the internal conflicts plaguing the research community and the role government has had in promoting climate studies. --Publishers Weekly Reviews of this book: It is almost two centuries since the French mathematician Jean Baptiste Fourier discovered that the Earth was far warmer than it had any right to be, given its distance from the Sun...Spencer Weart's book about how Fourier's initially inconsequential discovery finally triggered urgent debate about the future habitability of the Earth is lucid, painstaking and commendably brief, packing everything into 200 pages. --Fred Pearce, The Independent Reviews of this book: [The Discovery of Global Warming] is a well-written, well-researched and well-balanced account of the issues involved...This is not a sermon for the faithful, or verses from Revelation for the evangelicals, but a serious summary for those who like reasoned argument. Read it--and be converted. --John Emsley, Times Literary Supplement Reviews of this book: This is a terrific book...Perhaps the finest compliment I could give this book is to report that I intend to use it instead of my own book...for my climate class. The Discovery of Global Warming is more up-to-date, better balanced historically, beautifully written and, not least important, short and to the point. I think the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] needs to enlist a few good historians like Weart for its next assessment. --Stephen H. Schneider, Nature Reviews of this book: This short, well-written book by a science historian at the American Institute of Physics adds a serious voice to the overheated debate about global warming and would serve as a great starting point for anyone who wants to better understand the issue. --Maureen Christie, American Scientist Reviews of this book: I was very pleasantly surprised to find that Spencer Weart's account provides much valuable and interesting material about how the discipline developed--not just from the perspective of climate science but also within the context of the field's relation to other scientific disciplines, the media, political trends, and even 20th-century history (particularly the Cold War). In addition, Weart has done a valuable service by recording for posterity background information on some of the key discoveries and historical figures who contributed to our present understanding of the global warming problem. --Thomas J. Crowley, Science Reviews of this book: Weart has done us all a service by bringing the discovery of global warming into a short, compendious and persuasive book for a general readership. He is especially strong on the early days and the scientific background. --Crispin Tickell, Times Higher Education Supplement A Capricious Beast Ever since the days when he had trudged around fossil lake basins in Nevada for his doctoral thesis, Wally Broecker had been interested in sudden climate shifts. The reported sudden jumps of CO2 in Greenland ice cores stimulated him to put this interest into conjunction with his oceanographic interests. The result was a surprising and important calculation. The key was what Broecker later described as a "great conveyor belt'"of seawater carrying heat northward. . . . The energy carried to the neighborhood of Iceland was "staggering," Broecker realized, nearly a third as much as the Sun sheds upon the entire North Atlantic. If something were to shut down the conveyor, climate would change across much of the Northern Hemisphere' There was reason to believe a shutdown could happen swiftly. In many regions the consequences for climate would be spectacular. Broecker was foremost in taking this disagreeable news to the public. In 1987 he wrote that we had been treating the greenhouse effect as a 'cocktail hour curiosity,' but now 'we must view it as a threat to human beings and wildlife.' The climate system was a capricious beast, he said, and we were poking it with a sharp stick. I found the book enjoyable, thoughtful, and an excellent introduction to the history of what may be one of the most important subjects of the next one hundred years. --Clark Miller, University of Wisconsin The Discovery of Global Warming raises important scientific issues and topics and includes essential detail. Readers should be able to follow the discussion and emerge at the end with a good understanding of how scientists have developed a consensus on global warming, what it is, and what issues now face human society. --Thomas R. Dunlap, Texas A&M University

Book Climate Change

    Book Details:
  • Author : The Royal Society
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • Release : 2014-02-26
  • ISBN : 0309302021
  • Pages : 74 pages

Download or read book Climate Change written by The Royal Society and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-02-26 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked. Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming.

Book Miseducation

    Book Details:
  • Author : Katie Worth
  • Publisher :
  • Release : 2021-11-09
  • ISBN : 9781735913643
  • Pages : 150 pages

Download or read book Miseducation written by Katie Worth and published by . This book was released on 2021-11-09 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why are so many American children learning so much misinformation about climate change? Investigative reporter Katie Worth reviewed scores of textbooks, built a 50-state database, and traveled to a dozen communities to talk to children and teachers about what is being taught, and found a red-blue divide in climate education. More than one-third of young adults believe that climate change is not man-made, and science teachers who teach global warming are being contradicted by history teachers who tell children not to worry about it. Who has tried to influence what children learn, and how successful have they been? Worth connects the dots to find out how oil corporations, state legislatures, school boards, and textbook publishers sow uncertainty, confusion, and distrust about climate science. A thoroughly researched, eye-opening look at how some states do not want children to learn the facts about climate change.

Book A Climate for Change

    Book Details:
  • Author : Katharine Hayhoe
  • Publisher : FaithWords
  • Release : 2009-10-29
  • ISBN : 0446558265
  • Pages : 181 pages

Download or read book A Climate for Change written by Katharine Hayhoe and published by FaithWords. This book was released on 2009-10-29 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most Christian lifestyle or environmental books focus on how to live in a sustainable and conservational manner. A CLIMATE FOR CHANGE shows why Christians should be living that way, and the consequences of doing so. Drawing on the two authors' experiences, one as an internationally recognized climate scientist and the other as an evangelical leader of a growing church, this book explains the science underlying global warming, the impact that human activities have on it, and how our Christian faith should play a significant role in guiding our opinions and actions on this important issue.

Book Climate Change

    Book Details:
  • Author : Anna Revell
  • Publisher :
  • Release : 2017-11-24
  • ISBN : 9781973377900
  • Pages : 139 pages

Download or read book Climate Change written by Anna Revell and published by . This book was released on 2017-11-24 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CLIMATE CHANGE: Climate Science Facts & Fiction, & Tackling Global WarmingClimate change is here. And it looks as though it is going to stay. We are experiencing its effects already, but the evidence suggests that matters will only get worse. Those following the news this year, in 2017, will be familiar with the impact of hurricanes on the northern West Indies.Nations have been destroyed, people killed as landfall was made by successive storms in a short period. The small island of Barbuda in particular suffered devastation. There was a very significant satellite image of the region reproduced in numerous newspapers. It showed a line of three hurricanes, the first having passed the West Indies, the second over it, north of Cuba, and the third about to hit. Climate change is already a serious threat to the lives of mankind. And, indeed as we will see later in this book, every other living occupant of the planet. Your reading will offer an insight into the causes and effects of climate change. It will provide case studies alongside practical guides as to how we can all help. It will also look at the climate change deniers, that group of often powerful people who fly in the face of accepted research in an attempt to justify their continued use of fossil fuel. They frequently seek justification for their pumping of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. If, like many people, you are already concerned by the risks of climate change, this book will provide hard evidence to support your worries. If you are a denier, it will aim to present enough information to make you question your views.

Book Climate Change

    Book Details:
  • Author : Joseph Romm
  • Publisher : Oxford University Press
  • Release : 2018-04-02
  • ISBN : 0190866136
  • Pages : 375 pages

Download or read book Climate Change written by Joseph Romm and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-02 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is, for my money, the best single-source primer on the state of climate change." - New York Magazine "The right book at the right time: accessible, comprehensive, unflinching, humane." - The Daily Beast "A must-read." - The Guardian The essential primer on what will be the defining issue of our time, Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know® is a clear-eyed overview of the science, conflicts, and implications of our warming planet. From Joseph Romm, Chief Science Advisor for National Geographic's Years of Living Dangerously series and one of Rolling Stone's "100 people who are changing America," Climate Change offers user-friendly, scientifically rigorous answers to the most difficult (and commonly politicized) questions surrounding what climatologist Lonnie Thompson has deemed "a clear and present danger to civilization." New questions about climate change addressed in this guide include: · Analysis of the Paris climate agreement, including the United States' withdrawal · Examines implications of the clean energy revolution, from solar and wind power to batteries and electric cars · The latest on climate science, including updates on efforts to stem or slow climate change · Insights into what Donald Trump's presidency means for climate action in the US and internationally As the global response to climate change continues to evolve, Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know® offers smart, unbiased answers to the most difficult questions in an area dogged by misunderstanding and politicization.

Book Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Book Details:
  • Author : Hans von Storch
  • Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
  • Release : 2012-12-06
  • ISBN : 3642599923
  • Pages : 357 pages

Download or read book Anthropogenic Climate Change written by Hans von Storch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: GKSS SCHOOL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH The National Research Laboratory GKSS (member of the Hermann von Helmholtz-Association of German Reserach Centres) located in Geesthacht, near Hamburg, is engaged in environmental research. The main interest of the research center focuses on regional climatology and climate dynamics, interdecadal variations in the state of the Baltic and North Sea and related estuaries, and the flow ofheavy metals, nutrients, and other materials in river catchments to the coastal zones. This research aims at-developing an under standing ofchanges in the environment, both as a result ofinternal (natural) dynamics and as a result of anthropogenic interference. In an effort to dis seminate the results of these research activities, as well as to initiate a broad discussion among senior scientists in the field, and younger colleagues from all areas of the globe, the Institutes of Hydrophysics and Atmospheric Physics at GKSS have instituted the GKSS School of Environmental Research. Appliedenvironmental research has always containedanelement ofaware ness ofthe societal implications and boundary conditions associated with en vironmental concerns. Consequently, the School of Environmental Research adheres to the philosophy that all discussion regarding environmental change should incorporate a social component. This necessity has been well acknowl edged and is apparent by the incorporation ofsocial scientists into the series of lectures. Senior scientists from Europe and North America were invited to give lectures to "students" from all parts of the globe.

Book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster

Download or read book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster written by Bill Gates and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2021-02-16 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: #1 NEW YORK TIMES BEST SELLER • In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse gas emissions in time to avoid a climate catastrophe. Bill Gates has spent a decade investigating the causes and effects of climate change. With the help of experts in the fields of physics, chemistry, biology, engineering, political science, and finance, he has focused on what must be done in order to stop the planet's slide to certain environmental disaster. In this book, he not only explains why we need to work toward net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, but also details what we need to do to achieve this profoundly important goal. He gives us a clear-eyed description of the challenges we face. Drawing on his understanding of innovation and what it takes to get new ideas into the market, he describes the areas in which technology is already helping to reduce emissions, where and how the current technology can be made to function more effectively, where breakthrough technologies are needed, and who is working on these essential innovations. Finally, he lays out a concrete, practical plan for achieving the goal of zero emissions—suggesting not only policies that governments should adopt, but what we as individuals can do to keep our government, our employers, and ourselves accountable in this crucial enterprise. As Bill Gates makes clear, achieving zero emissions will not be simple or easy to do, but if we follow the plan he sets out here, it is a goal firmly within our reach.

Book How Climate Change Comes to Matter

Download or read book How Climate Change Comes to Matter written by Candis Callison and published by Duke University Press. This book was released on 2015-02-15 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past decade, skepticism about climate change has frustrated those seeking to engage broad publics and motivate them to take action on the issue. In this innovative ethnography, Candis Callison examines the initiatives of social and professional groups as they encourage diverse American publics to care about climate change. She explores the efforts of science journalists, scientists who have become expert voices for and about climate change, American evangelicals, Indigenous leaders, and advocates for corporate social responsibility. The disparate efforts of these groups illuminate the challenge of maintaining fidelity to scientific facts while transforming them into ethical and moral calls to action. Callison investigates the different vernaculars through which we understand and articulate our worlds, as well as the nuanced and pluralistic understandings of climate change evident in different forms of advocacy. As she demonstrates, climate change offers an opportunity to look deeply at how issues and problems that begin in a scientific context come to matter to wide publics, and to rethink emerging interactions among different kinds of knowledge and experience, evolving media landscapes, and claims to authority and expertise.

Book False Alarm

    Book Details:
  • Author : Bjorn Lomborg
  • Publisher : Basic Books
  • Release : 2020-07-14
  • ISBN : 1541647483
  • Pages : 347 pages

Download or read book False Alarm written by Bjorn Lomborg and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2020-07-14 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An “essential” (Times UK) and “meticulously researched” (Forbes) book by “the skeptical environmentalist” argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world. Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education. False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all.

Book Storms of My Grandchildren

Download or read book Storms of My Grandchildren written by James Hansen and published by A&C Black. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: _______________ 'When the history of the climate crisis is written, Hansen will be seen as the scientist with the most powerful and consistent voice calling for intelligent action to preserve our planet's environment' - Al Gore 'Few people know more about climate change than James Hansen ... This unnerving and fluently written book is the definitive one to read' - BBC Wildlife 'Anyone concerned about the world our children and grandchildren must inherit owes it to themselves to read this book' - Irish Times _______________ An urgent and provocative call to action from the world's leading climate scientist Dr James Hansen, the world's leading scientist on climate issues, speaks out with the full truth about global warming: the planet is hurtling to a climatic point of no return. Hansen - whose climate predictions have come to pass again and again, beginning in the 1980s when he first warned US Congress about global warming - is the single most credible voice on the subject worldwide. He paints a devastating but all-too-realistic picture of what will happen if we continue to follow the course we're on. But he is also a hard-headed optimist, and shows that there is still time to take the urgent, strong action needed to save humanity. _______________ 'James Hansen gives us the opportunity to watch a scientist who is sick of silence and compromise; a scientist at the breaking point - the point at which he is willing to sacrifice his credibility to make a stand to avert disaster' - LA Times

Book Under the Sky We Make

    Book Details:
  • Author : Kimberly Nicholas PhD
  • Publisher : Penguin
  • Release : 2021-03-23
  • ISBN : 0593328175
  • Pages : 338 pages

Download or read book Under the Sky We Make written by Kimberly Nicholas PhD and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-03-23 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ** Los Angeles Times bestseller ** It's warming. It's us. We're sure. It's bad. But we can fix it. After speaking to the international public for close to fifteen years about sustainability, climate scientist Dr. Nicholas realized that concerned people were getting the wrong message about the climate crisis. Yes, companies and governments are hugely responsible for the mess we're in. But individuals CAN effect real, significant, and lasting change to solve this problem. Nicholas explores finding purpose in a warming world, combining her scientific expertise and her lived, personal experience in a way that seems fresh and deeply urgent: Agonizing over the climate costs of visiting loved ones overseas, how to find low-carbon love on Tinder, and even exploring her complicated family legacy involving supermarket turkeys. In her astonishing, bestselling book Under the Sky We Make, Nicholas does for climate science what Michael Pollan did more than a decade ago for the food on our plate: offering a hopeful, clear-eyed, and somehow also hilarious guide to effecting real change, starting in our own lives. Saving ourselves from climate apocalypse will require radical shifts within each of us, to effect real change in our society and culture. But it can be done. It requires, Dr. Nicholas argues, belief in our own agency and value, alongside a deep understanding that no one will ever hand us power--we're going to have to seize it for ourselves.

Book The Inquisition of Climate Science

Download or read book The Inquisition of Climate Science written by James Lawrence Powell and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-30 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern science is under the greatest and most successful attack in recent history. An industry of denial, abetted by news media and "info-tainment" broadcasters more interested in selling controversy than presenting facts, has duped half the American public into rejecting the facts of climate science—an overwhelming body of rigorously vetted scientific evidence showing that human-caused, carbon-based emissions are linked to warming the Earth. The industry of climate science denial is succeeding: public acceptance has declined even as the scientific evidence for global warming has increased. It is vital that the public understand how anti-science ideologues, pseudo-scientists, and non-scientists have bamboozled them. We cannot afford to get global warming wrong—yet we are, thanks to deniers and their methods. The Inquisition of Climate Science is the first book to comprehensively take on the climate science denial movement and the deniers themselves, exposing their lack of credentials, their extensive industry funding, and their failure to provide any alternative theory to explain the observed evidence of warming. In this book, readers meet the most prominent deniers while dissecting their credentials, arguments, and lack of objectivity. James Lawrence Powell shows that the deniers use a wide variety of deceptive rhetorical techniques, many stretching back to ancient Greece. Carefully researched, fully referenced, and compellingly written, his book clearly reveals that the evidence of global warming is real and that an industry of denial has deceived the American public, putting them and their grandchildren at risk.

Book Climate Cover Up

Download or read book Climate Cover Up written by James Hoggan and published by Greystone Books Ltd. This book was released on 2009 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a story of betrayal, selfishness, greed and irresponsibility on an epic scale. Hoggan examines the public relations circus that surrounds global warming, and uncovers the organized campaign, largely financed by the coal and oil industries, to make us think that climate science is still somehow controversial.

Book What If We Stopped Pretending

Download or read book What If We Stopped Pretending written by Jonathan Franzen and published by HarperCollins UK. This book was released on 2021-01-21 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The climate change is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it.