Download or read book The Effectiveness of Job Retention Schemes COVID 19 Evidence From the German States written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany’s short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure of the labor demand shock and instrument KA take-up using the pre-existing, state-specific share of workers eligible for KA. We find, first, that KA was crucial in mitigating unemployment: absent its expansion the unemployment rate would have increased by an additional 3 pp on average at the trough of the recession. Second, KA also bolstered domestic demand: the contraction in consumption could have been 2 to 3 times larger absent the program. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence on the sensitivity of the medium-run reallocation of resources to the prevalence of jobretention schemes during the Global Financial Crisis.

Download or read book Germany 2021 Article IV Consultation Press Release Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-15 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. But renewed waves of infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of this year. While the pace of mass vaccination has picked up and the economy has started to reopen, the recovery path is beset with risks, particularly with respect to the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in major industries. The authorities have maintained appropriately accommodative fiscal and financial policies, and most measures supporting households and firms have been extended through 2021.

Download or read book People s Republic of China written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-08-15 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines the drivers and prospects for high levels of savings in China. China has one of the highest levels of national savings in the world, which is at the heart of its external and internal imbalances. High and rising household savings have mainly resulted from demographic changes as a result of the one-child policy and the breakdown of the social safety net during the transition from a planned to a market economy. Demographic changes will put downward pressure on national savings. Policy efforts to strengthen the social safety net and reduce income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and faster and to boost consumption.

Download or read book Hungary written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-03 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the headline inflation in Hungary has started to pick up, mainly owing to higher energy prices, while core inflation has been running sideways over the past six months, despite emerging capacity constraints. Unemployment remains on a decreasing trend, and labor shortages are intensifying despite the improvement in participation rates. The 2017 general government fiscal deficit narrowed to 2 percent of GDP, compared with the budgeted 2.4 percent. This outcome was mostly driven by strong GDP growth and reduced interest payments. The IMF staff projects the 2018 overall fiscal deficit at about 2.4 percent of GDP, in line with the budget’s target.

Download or read book Germany written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-29 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the risks and vulnerabilities of the German financial system and reviews both the German regulatory and supervisory framework and implementation of the common European framework insofar as it is relevant for Germany. The country is home to two global systemically important financial institutions, Deutsche Bank AG and Allianz SE. The system is also very heterogeneous, with a range of business models and a large number of smaller banks and insurers. The regulatory landscape has changed profoundly with strengthened solvency and liquidity regulations for banks (the EU Capital Requirements Regulation and Directive IV), and the introduction of macroprudential tools.

Download or read book Germany Staff Report for the Article IV Consultation written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Download or read book Republic of Slovenia 2021 Article IV Consultation Press Release Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-25 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.

Download or read book Botswana written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-17 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES Setting: The seeds of good governance and prudent macroeconomic and natural resources management planted by the Botswana authorities paid off with an impressive increase in the GDP per capita during the last three decades. However, as in many other small middle-income countries (SMICs) in the region, trend growth has softened in recent years, reflecting the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth which calls for policies to reduce structural bottlenecks in the economy. Current conditions and outlook: Botswana’s economy remains broadly internally and externally balanced and the authorities’ near-term macroeconomic policy mix is appropriate. Output growth is expected to slowdown in 2014 reflecting partly weaknesses in the non-mineral sector, while inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) medium-term objective range of 3-6 percent. Fiscal policy: Staff supports the FY2014/15 budget, which reins in unproductive current spending, while protecting growth-promoting capital spending. Achieving medium-term fiscal consolidation objectives adopted in the budget, would require articulating concrete measures to reduce the wage bill relative to GDP and broaden the revenue base. Financial sector development: Botswana’s banking system is well-capitalized and profitable with relatively low nonperforming loans. Although from a low base, credit growth to households continues to expand at a high rate, which poses potential vulnerabilities for the financial sector. Thus, staff recommends that macro prudential measures be considered to temper the rate of growth of household borrowing. In this context, staff welcomes the government’s emphasis on enhancing greater financial deepening and inclusion, while preserving the stability of the financial system. Reinvigorating growth: Returning to an era of strong growth and accelerating Botswana’s convergence to higher income levels would require policies to reinvigorate TFP growth. These include improving the quality of public spending, notably in public investment projects and education to ensure the transformation of diamond wealth into sustainable assets. The authorities’ efforts to improve the country’s competitiveness, including through reducing the regulatory burden on firms, is also welcomed. Past advice: There is broad agreement between the Fund and the authorities on the macroeconomic policy stance and structural reform policy priorities. Consistent with staff’s advice, the FY 2014/15 budget outlined a framework to reduce the burden of loss- making state-owned enterprises on fiscal resources and propel them toward commercial viability. Furthermore, the budget includes medium-term projections of government accounts, as recommended by staff during past consultations. However, progress towards reducing the wage bill relative to GDP remains modest.

Download or read book Ireland 2021 Article IV Consultation Press Release and Staff Report written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-16 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ireland entered the COVID pandemic with reduced vulnerabilities and high growth, especially in multinational enterprises (MNEs)-dominated sectors. The pandemic has had a highly asymmetric impact on the economy. The domestic sectors contracted by about 10 percent in 2020 and unemployment reached 30 percent at the peak of the first wave, while MNEs continued to grow strongly, driving overall GDP growth to 3.4 percent. A swift policy response has been effective in mitigating the crisis impact and protecting households and firms. The domestic sectors are expected to partially recover in 2021, with GDP growth projected at 4.6 percent. Downside risks stem from uncertainties surrounding new COVID variants, post-Brexit trade arrangements, and likely changes in international taxation.

Download or read book The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model GIMF written by Mr. Douglas Laxton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance.

Download or read book United States written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-03 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unemployment is low, inflation is well contained, and growth is set to accelerate. During the course of this administration, the economy is expected to enter the longest expansion in recorded U.S. history.

Download or read book United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-16 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of the United Kingdom. The U.K. economy has performed well in recent years, but it faces important challenges and risks. In the near term, the largest risks and uncertainties relate to the upcoming European Union (EU) referendum. In the event the United Kingdom stays in the EU, steady growth is expected to continue over the next few years. Macroeconomic policies in the baseline should focus on promoting continued steady growth while reducing vulnerabilities. In particular, monetary policy should remain on hold until inflationary pressures are clearer and to help offset headwinds from fiscal consolidation.

Download or read book The Global Findex Database 2017 written by Asli Demirguc-Kunt and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.

Download or read book People s Republic of China written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-17 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This staff report on People’s Republic of China 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights macroeconomic developments and outlook. China has maintained robust growth since the global crisis, but the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raising vulnerabilities. The consequence is a steady build-up of leverage that is eroding the strength of the financial sector, local government, and corporate balance sheets. This is most apparent in the continued rapid expansion in total social financing. The development of nontraditional finance marks a shift to more market-based intermediation, and the migration of activity to less-regulated parts of the system poses risks to financial stability.

Download or read book America s Role in Nation Building written by James Dobbins and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The post-World War II occupations of Germany and Japan set standards for postconflict nation-building that have not since been matched. Only in recent years has the United States has felt the need to participate in similar transformations, but it is now facing one of the most challenging prospects since the 1940s: Iraq. The authors review seven case studies--Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan--and seek lessons about what worked well and what did not. Then, they examine the Iraq situation in light of these lessons. Success in Iraq will require an extensive commitment of financial, military, and political resources for a long time. The United States cannot afford to contemplate early exit strategies and cannot afford to leave the job half completed.

Download or read book Impact Evaluation in Practice Second Edition written by Paul J. Gertler and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-09-12 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.