Download or read book Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions written by K. R. Kadiyala and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean written by Marta Banbura and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a vector autoregressive model with time variation in the mean and the variance. The unobserved time-varying mean is assumed to follow a random walk and we also link it to long-term Consensus forecasts, similar in spirit to so called democratic priors. The changes in variance are modelled via stochastic volatility. The proposed Gibbs sampler allows the researcher to use a large cross-sectional dimension in a feasible amount of computational time. The slowly changing mean can account for a number of secular developments such as changing inflation expectations, slowing productivity growth or demographics. We show the good forecasting performance of the model relative to popular alternatives, including standard Bayesian VARs with Minnesota priors, VARs with democratic priors and standard time-varying parameter VARs for the euro area, the United States and Japan. In particular, incorporating survey forecast information helps to reduce the uncertainty about the unconditional mean and along with the time variation improves the long-run forecasting performance of the VAR models.
Download or read book Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions written by Robert B. Litterman and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting with generalized Bayesian vector autoregressions written by K. Rao Kadiyala and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Bayesian Procedure for Forecasting with Vector Autoregressions and Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions four Years of Experience written by Robert B. Litterman and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Download or read book Data Analysis Machine Learning and Applications written by Christine Preisach and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-04-13 with total page 714 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data analysis and machine learning are research areas at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, mathematics and statistics. They cover general methods and techniques that can be applied to a vast set of applications such as web and text mining, marketing, medical science, bioinformatics and business intelligence. This volume contains the revised versions of selected papers in the field of data analysis, machine learning and applications presented during the 31st Annual Conference of the German Classification Society (Gesellschaft für Klassifikation - GfKl). The conference was held at the Albert-Ludwigs-University in Freiburg, Germany, in March 2007.
Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Download or read book Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions written by Faruk Selc̦uk and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Financial Time Series with S PLUS written by Eric Zivot and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 632 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics. This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data. It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts. This Second Edition is updated to cover S+FinMetrics 2.0 and includes new chapters on copulas, nonlinear regime switching models, continuous-time financial models, generalized method of moments, semi-nonparametric conditional density models, and the efficient method of moments. Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department, and adjunct associate professor of finance in the Business School at the University of Washington. He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the Henry T. Buechel Award for Outstanding Teaching. He is an associate editor of Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. He has published papers in the leading econometrics journals, including Econometrica, Econometric Theory, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Econometrics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. Jiahui Wang is an employee of Ronin Capital LLC. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Washington in 1997. He has published in leading econometrics journals such as Econometrica and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, and is the Principal Investigator of National Science Foundation SBIR grants. In 2002 Dr. Wang was selected as one of the "2000 Outstanding Scholars of the 21st Century" by International Biographical Centre.
Download or read book Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes written by Helmut Lütkepohl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is concerned with forecasting time series variables and the impact of the level of aggregation on the efficiency of the forecasts. Since temporally and contemporaneously disaggregated data at various levels have become available for many countries, regions, and variables during the last decades the question which data and procedures to use for prediction has become increasingly important in recent years. This study aims at pointing out some of the problems involved and at pro viding some suggestions how to proceed in particular situations. Many of the results have been circulated as working papers, some have been published as journal articles, and some have been presented at conferences and in seminars. I express my gratitude to all those who have commented on parts of this study. They are too numerous to be listed here and many of them are anonymous referees and are therefore unknown to me. Some early results related to the present study are contained in my monograph "Prognose aggregierter Zeitreihen" (Lutkepohl (1986a)) which was essentially completed in 1983. The present study contains major extensions of that research and also summarizes the earlier results to the extent they are of interest in the context of this study.
Download or read book Forecasting Performance of Bayesian Vector Autoregression Models written by Raluca Alina Cata and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Univariate and Multivariate ARIMA Versus Vector Autoregression Forecasting written by Michael L. Bagshaw and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR BUSINESS FORECASTING VAR BVAR written by Elizabeth Louise Rose and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: forecast comparisons.
Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and Real GDP written by Jason K. Wong and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
