Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Download or read book Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques.*Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives

Download or read book Machine Learning for Asset Management written by Emmanuel Jurczenko and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edited volume consists of a collection of original articles written by leading financial economists and industry experts in the area of machine learning for asset management. The chapters introduce the reader to some of the latest research developments in the area of equity, multi-asset and factor investing. Each chapter deals with new methods for return and risk forecasting, stock selection, portfolio construction, performance attribution and transaction costs modeling. This volume will be of great help to portfolio managers, asset owners and consultants, as well as academics and students who want to improve their knowledge of machine learning in asset management.

Download or read book On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills written by Roy Henriksson and published by . This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Time Series in High Dimension the General Dynamic Factor Model written by Marc Hallin and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2020-03-30 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.

Download or read book A Companion to Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Download or read book DIY Financial Advisor written by Wesley R. Gray and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-08-31 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DIY Financial Advisor: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth DIY Financial Advisor is a synopsis of our research findings developed while serving as a consultant and asset manager for family offices. By way of background, a family office is a company, or group of people, who manage the wealth a family has gained over generations. The term 'family office' has an element of cachet, and even mystique, because it is usually associated with the mega-wealthy. However, practically speaking, virtually any family that manages its investments—independent of the size of the investment pool—could be considered a family office. The difference is mainly semantic. DIY Financial Advisor outlines a step-by-step process through which investors can take control of their hard-earned wealth and manage their own family office. Our research indicates that what matters in investing are minimizing psychology traps and managing fees and taxes. These simple concepts apply to all families, not just the ultra-wealthy. But can—or should—we be managing our own wealth? Our natural inclination is to succumb to the challenge of portfolio management and let an 'expert' deal with the problem. For a variety of reasons we discuss in this book, we should resist the gut reaction to hire experts. We suggest that investors maintain direct control, or at least a thorough understanding, of how their hard-earned wealth is managed. Our book is meant to be an educational journey that slowly builds confidence in one's own ability to manage a portfolio. We end our book with a potential solution that could be applicable to a wide-variety of investors, from the ultra-high net worth to middle class individuals, all of whom are focused on similar goals of preserving and growing their capital over time. DIY Financial Advisor is a unique resource. This book is the only comprehensive guide to implementing simple quantitative models that can beat the experts. And it comes at the perfect time, as the investment industry is undergoing a significant shift due in part to the use of automated investment strategies that do not require a financial advisor's involvement. DIY Financial Advisor is an essential text that guides you in making your money work for you—not for someone else!

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Download or read book Knowledge Based Systems written by Rajendra Akerkar and published by Jones & Bartlett Publishers. This book was released on 2009-08-25 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a system that uses artificial intelligence techniques in problem-solving processes to support human decision-making, learning, and action. Ideal for advanced-undergraduate and graduate students, as well as business professionals, this text is designed to help users develop an appreciation of KBS and their architecture and understand a broad variety of knowledge-based techniques for decision support and planning. It assumes basic computer science skills and a math background that includes set theory, relations, elementary probability, and introductory concepts of artificial intelligence. Each of the 12 chapters is designed to be modular, providing instructors with the flexibility to model the book to their own course needs. Exercises are incorporated throughout the text to highlight certain aspects of the material presented and to simulate thought and discussion. A comprehensive text and resource, Knowledge-Based Systems provides access to the most current information in KBS and new artificial intelligences, as well as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and soft systems.

Download or read book Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets written by François M. Longin and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Neural Networks written by Raul Rojas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Neural networks are a computing paradigm that is finding increasing attention among computer scientists. In this book, theoretical laws and models previously scattered in the literature are brought together into a general theory of artificial neural nets. Always with a view to biology and starting with the simplest nets, it is shown how the properties of models change when more general computing elements and net topologies are introduced. Each chapter contains examples, numerous illustrations, and a bibliography. The book is aimed at readers who seek an overview of the field or who wish to deepen their knowledge. It is suitable as a basis for university courses in neurocomputing.

Download or read book Fuzzy Sets in Management Economics and Marketing written by Panos M. Pardalos and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2001 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid changes that have taken place globally on the economic, social and business fronts characterized the 20th century. The magnitude of these changes has formed an extremely complex and unpredictable decision-making framework, which is difficult to model through traditional approaches. The main purpose of this book is to present the most recent advances in the development of innovative techniques for managing the uncertainty that prevails in the global economic and management environments. These techniques originate mainly from fuzzy sets theory. However, the book also explores the integration of fuzzy sets with other decision support and modeling disciplines, such as multicriteria decision aid, neural networks, genetic algorithms, machine learning, chaos theory, etc. The presentation of the advances in these fields and their real world applications adds a new perspective to the broad fields of management science and economics. Contents: Decision Making, Management and Marketing: Algorithms for Orderly Structuring of Financial OC ObjectsOCO (J Gil-Aluja); A Fuzzy Goal Programming Model for Evaluating a Hospital Service Performance (M Arenas et al.); A Group Decision Making Method Using Fuzzy Triangular Numbers (J L Garc a-Lapresta et al.); Developing Sorting Models Using Preference Disaggregation Analysis: An Experimental Investigation (M Doumpos & C Zopounidis); Stock Markets and Portfolio Management: The Causality Between Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Emerging Markets: The Case of the Jakarta Stock Exchange (J Gupta et al.); Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in Stock Market (D Koulouriotis et al.); Neural Network vs Linear Models of Stock Returns: An Application to the UK and German Stock Market Indices (A Kanas); Corporate Finance and Banking Management: Expertons and Behaviour of Companies with Regard to the Adequacy Between Business Decisions and Objectives (A Couturier & B Fioleau); Multiple Fuzzy IRR in the Financial Decision Environment (S F Gonzilez et al.); An Automated Knowledge Generation Approach for Managing Credit Scoring Problems (M Michalopoulos et al.); and other papers. Readership: Financial managers, economists, management scientists and computer scientists."

Download or read book The Econometrics of Financial Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-28 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.

Download or read book The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory written by Vladimir Vapnik and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to discuss the fundamental ideas which lie behind the statistical theory of learning and generalization. It considers learning as a general problem of function estimation based on empirical data. Omitting proofs and technical details, the author concentrates on discussing the main results of learning theory and their connections to fundamental problems in statistics. This second edition contains three new chapters devoted to further development of the learning theory and SVM techniques. Written in a readable and concise style, the book is intended for statisticians, mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists.

Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Download or read book The Clash of the Cultures written by John C. Bogle and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-07-05 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recommended Reading by Warren Buffet in his March 2013 Letter to Shareholders How speculation has come to dominate investment—a hard-hitting look from the creator of the first index fund. Over the course of his sixty-year career in the mutual fund industry, Vanguard Group founder John C. Bogle has witnessed a massive shift in the culture of the financial sector. The prudent, value-adding culture of long-term investment has been crowded out by an aggressive, value-destroying culture of short-term speculation. Mr. Bogle has not been merely an eye-witness to these changes, but one of the financial sector’s most active participants. In The Clash of the Cultures, he urges a return to the common sense principles of long-term investing. Provocative and refreshingly candid, this book discusses Mr. Bogle's views on the changing culture in the mutual fund industry, how speculation has invaded our national retirement system, the failure of our institutional money managers to effectively participate in corporate governance, and the need for a federal standard of fiduciary duty. Mr. Bogle recounts the history of the index mutual fund, how he created it, and how exchange-traded index funds have altered its original concept of long-term investing. He also presents a first-hand history of Wellington Fund, a real-world case study on the success of investment and the failure of speculation. The book concludes with ten simple rules that will help investors meet their financial goals. Here, he presents a common sense strategy that "may not be the best strategy ever devised. But the number of strategies that are worse is infinite." The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation completes the trilogy of best-selling books, beginning with Bogle on Investing: The First 50 Years (2001) and Don't Count on It! (2011)