Download or read book Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle written by Marzie Taheri Sanjani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-23 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.
Download or read book Financial Frictions Business Cycles and Optimal Monetary Policy written by Zulfiqar Hyder and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The great recession that started in 2007, has not only changed the perspective of the macroeconomic literature about the role of financial frictions within the canonical New Keynesian (henceforth, NK) monetary models but also has rekindled the debate about sources of business cycle fluctuations. This dissertation, comprising of three self-contained essays, makes theoretical and empirical contributions to the emerging strands of literature incorporating financial frictions in the NK monetary models. The first essay (Chapter 2) of this dissertation extends traditional optimal monetary policy analysis to NK models with capital and financial frictions. In the case of a negative productivity shock, the chapter finds that: 1) a standard inflation targeting rule dominates the Taylor rule in both NK models without capital and with capital as it approximates the welfare level associated with the Ramsey policy; 2) in the NK model with capital and with financial frictions, the relative performance of the economy under standard inflation targeting is much better compared to alternative policies because it approximates Ramsey monetary policy. In the case of a financial shock, the chapter shows that the inflation targeting rule provides a welfare level that is close to the welfare level achieved under optimal monetary policy under commitment. In addition, Ramsey policy under commitment performs well in response to a financial shock, compared to alternative monetary policy regimes, by aggressively minimizing the impact of financial constraints on the interest rate spread. The second essay (Chapter 3) estimates the importance of financial shocks in business cycle fluctuations for the US economy using structural VAR models. In that chapter, financial and non-financial shocks are identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions based on the two competing NK models: the standard NK model augmented with a financial accelerator and the NK model augmented with financial intermediaries. Estimation results show that a financial shock, emanating both from entrepreneur's net worth and financial intermediaries net worth, is prominent in explaining fluctuations in real output and interest rate spread. As far as the relative importance of these two financial shocks is concerned, the following results stand out. A financial shock related to the demand side is relatively the major driver of output fluctuations in both time horizons while financial shocks related to financial intermediaries explain a moderate variation in output fluctuations in both time horizons. In addition, financial shocks related to financial intermediaries account for a relatively larger share of interest rate spread fluctuations at both time horizons compared to a financial shock related to the demand side. The third essay (Chapter 4) extends Gertler and Karadi's model (2011) into a two-sector setting. The Two-Sector Financial Accelerator model not only helps to incorporate the differences in the leverage ratios of commercial and investment banks but also introduces additional shocks that capture some features of the sub-prime financial crisis in the simulated economy. The results also show that output recovery would remain slow in the simulated economy as long as the relative price of non-consumption goods is not recovered to its trend.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade offs written by Francesco Furlanetto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-18 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure of output gap that accounts for frictions in financial market. Furthermore we illustrate that, in the presence of financial frictions, a benevolent central bank faces a substantial trade-off between nominal and real stabilization; optimal monetary policy significantly reduces fluctuations in price and wage inflations but fails to alleviate the output gap volatility. This suggests a role for macroprudential policies.
Download or read book Essays on Market Frictions Economic Shocks and Business Fluctuations written by Seungho Nah and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In the first essay, 'Financial Frictions, Intersectoral Adjustment Costs, and News-Driven Business Cycles', I show that an RBC model with financial frictions and intersectoral adjustment costs can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and plausible responses of stock prices in response to a news shock. Booms in the labor market, which make it possible for both consumption and investment to increase in response to positive news, are caused through two channels: the increases in value of marginal product of labor and the increases in value of collateral. Both of these channels enable firms to hire more workers. Intersectoral adjustment costs contribute to both channels by increasing the relative price of output and capital during expansions. Financial frictions enter in the forms of collateral constraints on firms, which influence the latter channel, and the financial accelerator mechanism driven by agency costs, which amplifies all the key variables. My model differs from previous studies in its ability to generate boom-bust cycles without restricting the functional form of consumption in household preferences and without requiring investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilization, or any nominal rigidities. In the second essay, 'Financial and Real Frictions as Sources of Business Fluctuations', I show that a negative shock to a financial or real friction in an economy can generate quantitatively significant and persistent recessions, even without a decrease in exogenous aggregate total factor productivity in a heterogeneous agents DSGE model. The increase in uncertainty that a firm is facing when it makes capital adjustment, however, is found to have a limited or dubious influence on economic activities. The roles of collateral constaints as a financial friction and nonconvex capital adjustment costs as a real friction in aggregate fluctuations are examined in this propagation mechanism. When these frictions become strengthened, the degree of capital misallocation is intensified, which leads to a drop of endogenous aggregate total factor productivity. As agents expect that the return to investment and endogenous TFP decrease, they reduce aggregate investment sharply, which also leads to a drop in employment. Interruption of efficient resource allocation coming from these two frictions is found out to be enough to generate a large and persistent aggregate flucutations even without introducing heterogeneity in firm-level productivity.
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities A Quantitative Investigation written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.
Download or read book Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle written by Marzie Taheri Sanjani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-23 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model fits US post-war macroeconomic data well, and shows that financial shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks.
Download or read book Business Cycles in Emerging Markets written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatile as income for both developed and emerging market economies. The simulation of the model implies that shocks to trend play a less important role than previously documented. Financial frictions improve the ability of the model to match some key business cycle properties of emerging economies. A countercyclical borrowing premium interacts with the nature of durable goods delivering highly volatile consumption and very countercyclical net exports.
Download or read book National and International Business Cycles written by Jean-François Rouillard and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation investigates the effects of frictions that emerge from financial markets on business-cycle fluctuations. The purpose of Chapter 1 is to situate my work in the literature and to stress its contributions. In Chapter 2, I reassess the role of financial frictions in amplifying the impacts of productivity shocks using a framework in which a fraction of firms are borrowing-constrained and land is a collateral asset. A first finding is that amplification effects are much lower when land is supplied elastically. However, financial shocks that affect the maximum allowable ratio of loans to collateral have greater effects on output. Another result pertains to the role of the elasticity of substitution between land and capital in responses to financial shocks: lower values generate greater output responses. While Chapter 2's environment is set up to be in a closed-economy, the last two chapters involve two-country settings. Chapter 3 still intersects with Chapter 2 on some dimensions, in particular, land dynamics and financial frictions that feature borrowing-constrained firms. The borrowing mechanism brings about a distortion in labour markets that interacts with a class of preferences that are non-separable between consumption and leisure. Technology shocks contribute to explain international co-movements, whereas financial shocks allow the model to replicate the lack of international risk sharing that is characterized by the quantity anomaly and the Backus-Smith puzzle. In Chapter 4, I apply Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan's (2007) business cycle accounting method to a two-country, two-good real business cycle model. Using their approach, I measure the same closed-economy time-varying wedges and I introduce an international wedge that accounts for discrepancies between the growth in real exchange rates and in the stochastic discount factors ratio. In fact, the effects of financial frictions embedded in Chapter 3's framework can be retrieved from a combination of labour and investment wedges. The volatility of the international wedge corresponds to a metric of bilateral risk sharing. An important finding is that, from a non-separable preferences specification of the baseline model, the investment wedge partly accounts for the Backus-Smith puzzle. This suggests that distortions in national capital markets are important to consider for international risk sharing.
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Financial Frictions in Closed and Open Economy Dsge Models written by Sadia Afrin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad objective of the thesis is to analyze the monetary policy transmission and relative importance of various shocks in business cycles after considering the financial sector structure for both developing and developed countries in three self-contained chapters (Chapter 2-4). The thesis contributes both theoretically and empirically to the literature relating to monetary policy, financial frictions and competition structure, exchange rate pass through and open economy in general, using Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Since the global financial crisis, a growing awareness of the roles of financial frictions has led to renewed interests in transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and other shocks. Two different financial frictions are incorporated in the DSGE models of Chapter 3-4 while Chapter 2 does not explicitly model financial friction and uses SVAR model to analyze the research questions. The effectiveness of monetary policy and its economy wide transmission mechanism are relatively unexplored in Bangladesh where financial sector is still developing. Hence, in Chapter 2, I investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism with special emphasis on the lending channel. A SVAR model for Bangladesh is constructed, taking into account the exchange rate and monetary policy regimes in the identification scheme. The estimated model finds support for empirical regularities and existence of the bank lending channel. However, exchange rate channel appears less effective, reflecting a high degree of market intervention by the Bangladesh Bank. Frictions complicate the role of the financial sector particularly in the advanced financial markets. Therefore, in Chapter 3, I analyze the transmission mechanism of investment specific technology (IST) shock in presence of frictions between depositors and bankers (a la Gertler and Karadi, 2009) and implications of considering the capital quality and the net worth shocks as financial shocks. I use a DSGE framework in Chapter 3 as it allows to design and experiment shocks and frictions explicitly. The estimated model with a closed economy representation for the US shows that, financial friction weakens the impacts of IST shocks in business cycles. Also, the financial sector is important not only as amplifier of shocks originating in the real sector, but also as an independent source of shocks affecting the real economy substantially. Financial sector in many countries are not as competitive as in the US. Therefore, the financial friction discussed in Chapter 3 may not be relevant in those countries. Highly concentrated structure of the financial sector itself creates frictions affecting bank credits in important ways. Thus, in Chapter 4, I construct an open economy DSGE model with an oligopolistically competitive banking sector, considering Australia as an example. Oligopolistic competition is measured through interest markup which depends on the number of competing banks. The number of competitors is determined endogenously. The estimated model for Australia finds a strong stock market effect in presence of oligopolistic banks after a monetary policy shock making the shock less effective and such banks may amplify external shocks. Also, these banks appear to be more resilient to financial shocks indicating healthy bank balance sheet positions. The big picture projected by the dissertation is, the depth and complexity of the financial sector affect the way intermediaries contribute to cyclical fluctuations when shocks including monetary policy hit the economy. For example, IST shock's impacts on output are weakened by the financial frictions through a bank balance sheet effect when intermediaries are highly competitive. However, under oligopolistic bank competition, the IST shock may not trigger effective enough balance sheet effects due to strategic behavior among the banks, leaving a large role for the shock to play. Policy implications of the thesis along with a discussion on future research directions are summarized in Chapter 5.
Download or read book Essays on the Role of Durables and Financial Frictions in Business Cycles and International Trade written by Dong Cheng and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Modern Business Cycle Theory written by Robert J. Barro and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The new classical approach to macroeconomics, which assumes that people gather and use economic information efficiently, has been the most important theoretical advance since the Keynesian revolution of the 1930s. This book surveys the major contributions of the "second generation" of proponents of the new classical approach, emphasizing real business cycle theories and applying them to a variety of phenomena. The chapters include expositions of growth theory, real models of business fluctuations, the informational role of prices, consumption, fiscal policy, rules versus discretion in monetary policy, time consistency and policy, and monetary models. Although the chapters are aimed at advanced undergraduate- and graduate-level students, they will also be of interest to researchers who are looking for a compact and original exposition of the new classical macroeconomics.
Download or read book Financial Market Disturbances as Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Finland written by Hanna Freystätter and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
