Download or read book Field Data Models and Uncertainty in Hazard Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents and Lahars Global Perspectives written by Pablo Tierz and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reconciling Field Observations of Pyroclastic Density Currents with Conceptual and Computational Analogs Using a GIS and a Newly Developed Global Database written by Sarah Elizabeth Ogburn and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work explores the use of both a geographical information system (GIS) and a global database for reconciling pyroclastic density current field data with conceptual and computational analogs. This study has four parts: 1) The suitability and use of different PDC mobility metrics is investigated by developing FlowDat, a global database of mass flows. This work reexamines the use of mobility metrics for characterizing PDC mobility and the frequency-magnitude relationships of PDCs, and shows how such data might be used for producing event trees. The work also tests the use of measurable deposit parameters as inputs for geophysical mass flow models, and shows that [delta]H/L (height-dropped/runout) values can be used as an estimate for the basal friction input parameter for TITAN2D; that the constant retarding stress parameter for VolcFlow can be estimated from field measurements, but not predicted; and that the calculation of the LAHARZ coefficients for the planimetric- and cross-sectional area-volume relationships using statistical analysis of data is problematic for forward modeling of PDCs. 2) The relative effectiveness of three popular computational models to simulate PDCs is explored by comparing both best-fit and FlowDat-derived model simulations to all mapped PDCs from the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. This work expands upon single-deposit comparisons of models, and is instead able to compare models over a range of volumes and emplacement environments. Results show that TITAN2D and VolcFlow are both able to replicate smaller-volume flows better than larger-volume flows, probably due to the increasing complexity in source characteristics and unsteadiness and non-uniformity of PDCs of larger volumes. LAHARZ is capable of reproducing mapped deposits, but its use for forward modeling is questioned. 3) The role of topography in the detachment of ash-cloud surges is derived from both field and GIS measurements of SHV deposits and digital elevation models (DEMs). The cross-sectional area of the channel is identified as a trigger of ash-cloud surge detachment, and a critical volume-specific cross-sectional area is determined. The results indicate that surge mobility and detachment are a complex product of flow mass flux, energy or granular temperature, and topography and that future efforts to model dense-dilute coupled flows will need to account for and integrate several mechanisms acting on different parts of the flow. 4) The relationships between surge detachment and topography mean that careful attention must be paid to the ways in which topography changes through time. Rapid topographic changes during an ongoing eruptive crisis can have important hazard implications, as in-filled valleys are less able to contain subsequent flows and steeper average drainage slopes can increase flow mobility. This work explores how topography has changed through time at SHV, Montserrat, and how these changes may impact future hazards in the Belham Valley. The Belham Valley, which is of paramount importance for hazard assessment on Montserrat, has steepened, lost cross-sectional area due to deposition, and the main channel has shifted toward the northern banks. Together, these changes increase the risks to populated areas from PDCs and lahars in the future. Each of these components contributes to our understanding of the mobility and behavior of PDCs, especially in relation to topographical effects. An important contribution is highlighting the differences between small-volume flows, which are better characterized by models and metrics, and larger-volume flows which are more complex and less well-characterized by models and metrics, which essentially average out aspects of these highly unsteady flows in both space and time. This presents important limits to the scalability of small-scale experiments and models developed in the context of these experiments. This work also seeks to use digital representations of deposits and topography to extract added value from already completed field investigations using a GIS. Field campaigns can be expensive, impractical, and even dangerous, and the work presented herein devises new ways to leverage existing data for further investigation.
Download or read book Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-12-12 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Download or read book The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards written by Elisa Trasatti and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera written by Andrea Bevilacqua and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.
Download or read book Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk written by Susan C. Loughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.
Download or read book Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Download or read book Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose Unrest Precursors and Timing written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.
Download or read book Source book for Volcanic hazards Zonation written by Dwight Raymond Crandell and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fire and Mud written by Christopher G. Newhall and published by University of Washington Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 1148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An impressive collection of 62 technical papers recounting the eruption of Mo Pinatubo in 1991 and its aftermath. The contributors reflect the internatio cooperation exhibited during the eruption (ten times larger than Mount St. Helens) and explore the precursors, processes, and products of the eru
Download or read book Modeling Stress and Dike Pathways in Calerdas written by Lorenzo Mantiloni and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic hazard assessment relies on physics-based models of hazards, such as lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, whose outcomes are very sensitive to the location where future eruptions will occur. On the contrary, forecast of vent opening locations in volcanic areas typically relies on purely data-driven approaches, where the spatial density of past eruptive vents informs the probability maps of future vent opening. Such techniques may be suboptimal in volcanic systems with missing or scarce data, and where the controls on magma pathways may change over time. An alternative approach was recently proposed, relying on a model of stress-driven pathways of magmatic dikes. In that approach, the crustal stress was optimized so that dike trajectories linked consistently the location of the magma chamber to that of past vents. The retrieved information on the stress state was then used to forecast future dike trajectories. The validation of such an approach requires extensive application to nature. Before doing so, however, several ...
Download or read book Volcanic Unrest written by Joachim Gottsmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-21 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
Download or read book Vent Opening Probability Map and Pyroclastic Density Currents Hazard Assessment at Somma Vesuvio Through a Multidisciplinary Approach Based on Physical Volcanology and Numerical Modeling written by Alessandro Tadini and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations written by International Atomic Energy Agency and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication provides comprehensive and updated guidance for site evaluation in relation to volcanic hazards. It includes recommendations on assessing the volcanic hazards at a nuclear installation site, in order to identify and characterize, in a comprehensive manner, all potentially hazardous phenomena that may be associated with future volcanic events. It describes how some of these volcanic phenomena may affect the acceptability of the selected site, resulting in exclusion of a site or determining the corresponding design basis parameters for the installation. This Safety Guide is applicable to both existing and new sites, and a graded approach is recommended to cater for all types of nuclear installations. Contents: 1. Introduction; 2. Overview of volcanic hazard assessment; 3. General recommendations; 4. Necessary information and investigations (database); 5. Screening of volcanic hazards; 6. Site specific volcanic hazard assessment
Download or read book Synthesizing Field and Experimental Techniques to Investigate the Enigmatic Processes Occurring at the Base of Pyroclastic Currents written by Nicholas M. Pollock and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Pyroclastic currents are the deadliest hazard associated with explosive volcanic eruptions. These gravity-driven currents consist of volcanic gases and solid particles that range in size from fine ash to boulders. The dangers associated with pyroclastic currents stem from their unpredictability and ability to travel extremely long distances, sometimes in excess of 100 km. To mitigate the risk to populations and infrastructure, we must understand the processes that control the runout distance of pyroclastic currents. The runout distance depends on the complex interplay of processes related to sediment transport, erosion, and deposition. Historically, studies focused on understanding sediment transport and deposition, but studies within the last 15 years demonstrate the important effect of erosional processes on the behavior of pyroclastic currents. This dissertation research builds on recent studies to investigate how pyroclastic currents interact with the bed via erosion and mixing processes. I seek to answer questions related to the mechanisms by which erosion occurs, how the properties of the bed affect erosion and mixing processes, and how interactions between the flow and the bed affect flow behavior and runout distance. To address these questions, I combine detailed field studies of pyroclastic current deposits with analogue laboratory experiments that simulate pyroclastic currents in a controlled environment. Synthesizing these two approaches, field and experimental, allows for even greater insight into basal processes than either approach could provide on its own. Ultimately, I show that erosion occurs via a fluid-like mixing process as a result of granular shear instabilities formed at the flow-bed interface. The mixing process generates wave-like structures at the contact between the flow and the bed, and the structures can be preserved in the deposits of both natural and experimental flows. The dimensions of the structures recorded in the deposits directly relate to flow parameters, such as velocity and thickness, at the time the structures formed. I apply scaling relationships derived from experimental data to sedimentary structures observed in the deposits of the pyroclastic currents produced during the May. 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens. This approach produces quantitative estimates of the flow velocity and thickness, important flow parameters that were unconstrained prior to this study. Additionally, the experiments suggest that the erosion and mixing processes decrease the runout distance of pyroclastic currents relative to non-erosive flows, which has important implications for hazard mitigation. Finally, the datasets produced both from the field and experimental studies can be used to test and refine numerical models of pyroclastic currents with the ultimate goal of improving the accuracy of risk assessments for these hazardous flows. While this dissertation research improves our understanding of the erosion and mixing processes that occur at the flow-bed interface in pyroclastic currents, the final conclusions also beget new questions. Future studies should investigate other mechanisms by which erosion occurs because the mechanism discussed here is not likely to be the single way in which pyroclastic currents entrain bed material. Continued work to synthesize experimental and field studies has the potential to produce additional methods to derive quantitative information from natural pyroclastic deposits. Finally, the next major goal moving forward in the study of pyroclastic currents must be to obtain in situ measurements of flows in real time. Such a dataset will provide the means to test many of the hypotheses set forth regarding the internal processes that govern the behavior of these dangerous volcanic phenomena."--Boise State University ScholarWorks.
Download or read book Extreme Natural Hazards Disaster Risks and Societal Implications written by Alik Ismail-Zadeh and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-17 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique interdisciplinary approach to disaster risk research, including global hazards and case-studies, for researchers, graduate students and professionals.
