Download or read book Extended Forecasting by Mean Circulation Methods written by Jerome Namias and published by . This book was released on 1947 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extended Forecasting by Mean Circulation Methods written by Jerome Namias and published by . This book was released on 1951 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Methods of Extended Forecasting written by Jerome Namias and published by . This book was released on 1943 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Statistical Application of Atmospheric Circulation and Solar Indices to Extended and Long range Forecasting written by Hurd Curtis Willett and published by . This book was released on 1957 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary objective of this project was to continue and to expand a-plied research in extended and long-range forecasting that was initiated under Contract No. AF19(604)-449. The project planning of research was adapted, for greatest efficiency, to anticipated long term operation of this project. Consequently the sudden and unexpected termination of the contract at the conclusion of the current contract year leaves a number of investigations in comparatively uncompleted form with comparatively little to report in the nature of final results or conclusions, hence the briefness of this Final Report. As initially planned, the work in this project was centered on three inter-related primary investigations. Subsequent developments dictated temporary postponement of work on two of these, in-favor of a fourth investigation, essentially statistical in nature, which during the past two years has represented two thirds of the total project effort-. These four investigations, and their principal results, may be summarized as follows: A. Operational Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting of Temperature and Precipitation Over the Continental United States, These operational forecasts were based primarily on an analog technique which was inherited from AF19(604)-449. Improved performance depended primarily on the extension of the basic northern hemisphere weather analogs from the year 1939 to date, and particularly upon the effective incorporation of analogs of solar activity into the complete series from 1899. When it became clear that these extensions of the analog basis were destined to be much slower of accomplishment than originally hoped for, and that meanwhile the preparation of forecasts was beccming a routine which furnished little new information but consumed man-hours which were badly needed elsewhere to improve the basis of the forecasts, this routine preparation was discontinued in March 1956 not to be resumed. No results were obtained to modify the conclusions reached one year earlier in the Final Report under AF19(604)- 449. B. The Interpretation of the Internal Mechanics of the General Circulation by the Correlation of Selected Index Parameters, This statistical analysis of the functioning of the mechanics of the general circulation had been carried on laboriously by hand ccmputation for a number of years in the Weather Bureau - Massachusetts Institute of Technology - Extended Forecasting Project. Results of some interest had been obtained from a limited period of complete analysis, results that form part of the basis of the analog forecasting technique mentioned under A above. Therefore, it was decided to support in this project an independent analysis by I.B.M. machine computation of an equal period of data to check and confirm the earlier results. However, the punch card data from Norfolk (Arowa deck) and particularly from Asheville (sea level data) were found to be in such poor shape that some of the final computations were delayed as much as two years, and are only half completed at the present writing, while the datc. are being corrected, completed and checked by hand. As a result, no final results whatsoever have been obtained from this effort, of which essentially only the machine computation was supported by this project. C. The Study of the Solar Influence in the Control of the General Circulation, This study was to determine the extent of the irregular solar influence on the general circulation and to serve as the basis for the incorporation of the solar analog into the forecasting technique under A above. As originally planned this investigation was to consist essentially of two parts, as follows: 1. A complete northern hemisphere synoptic - dynamic analysis by Don Gilman of t he sequence of events in the atmosphere, up to the 100 and 50 mb levels, during the very unusual period of development of the general circulation in February 1952, and perhaps subsequently during other selected short periods. 2. A statistical analysis of temperature and wind conditions at the 50 and 100 mb levels in relation to variable solar activity, to be based on the series of daily analyzed charts for those levels purportedly to be produced by the Weather Bureau on a semi-current basis. Some months of laborious checking of data by Don Gilman established the fact that available data were inadequate for (1) as planned, while the proposed series of Weather Bureau charts failed to materialize beyond five months that were quite inactive from a solar point of view, entirely useless for (2) as planned. Consequently this study of Gilman's was replaced by a practical statistical approach to the long range forecast problem, namely: D. The Application of Empirical Orthogonal Functions to Thirty- Iay Forecasting. This statistical study of Gilman's has absorbed two thirds of the total project effort for the past two years. In the preliminary phase of this study, just completed as Scientific Report No. 1, the Empirical Orthogonal Function technique as developed by Lorenz to represent the space and time variance of any field variable of the atmosphere is brought to bear on the problem of thirty-day forecasting. Fran the winter months of the years 1899 - 1939, functions are established for thirty-day mean pressure anomalies over the northern hemisphere and also for thirty-day mean temperature anomalies over the United States. The pressure functions are correlated with the temperature functions, first contemporarily (specification), then at one month lag (prediction). The linear regression equations (for specifying and predicting the temperature field) based on these correlations are tested on an independent sample of 27 postwar winter months. The resulting reductions of error are compared with those generated by climtology, persistence and chance, and also with expected values based on reductions of variance obtained within the original sample. It is found that the prediction scores, although small, are positive with respect to all three of the above verification standards. The analysis is then extended to include the geographical distribution of specification and prediction scores.
Download or read book Thirty Day Forecasting written by Jerome Namias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objects of the American Meteorological Society are "the development and dissemination of knowledge of meteorology in all its phases and applications, and the advancement of its professional ideals." The organization of the Society took place in affiliation with the American Association for the Advancement of Science at Saint Louis, Missouri, December 29, 1919, and its incorporation, at Washington, D. C., January 21, 1920. The work of the Society is carried on by the Bulletin, the Journal, and Meteorological Monographs, by papers and discussions at meetings of the Society, through the offices of the Secretary and the Executive Secretary, and by correspondence. All of the Americas are represented in the membership of the Society as well as many foreign countries.
Download or read book Compendium of Meteorology written by Thomas Malone and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-10 with total page 1304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objects of the American Meteorological Society are "the development and dissemination of knowledge of meteorology in all its phases and applications, and the advancement of its professional ideals." The organization of the Society took place in affiliation with the American Association for the Advancement of Science at Saint Louis, Missouri, December 29, 1919, and its incorporation, at Washington, D. C., January 21, 1920. The work of the Society is carried on by the Bulletin, the Journal, and Meteorological Monographs, by papers and discussions at meetings of the Society, through the offices of the Secretary and the Executive Secretary, and by correspondence. All of the Americas are represented in the membership of the Society as well as many foreign countries.
Download or read book Research Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Collected Papers on Seasonal Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Techniques Development Laboratory Report written by and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Objective Method of Forecasting Five day Precipitation for the Tennessee Valley written by William H. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1949 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The investigation to be described in full in this report was started as a pilot project in July 1946, in an effort to improve and render more objective the precipitation anomaly estimates based on prognostic circulation patterns. Precipitation rather than temperature was investigated, because the forecast verification scores had been consistently lower on precipitation than on temperature forecasts.
Download or read book Possibility of Long Range Precipitation Forecasting for the Hawaiian Islands written by Samuel B. Solot and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to establish a meteorological forecasting system, it is necessary to find a direct relationship between measurable physical states of the atmosphere and the end product, the weather element to be forecast. The long range forecaster is quite limited in his choice of physical parameters. In fact only the very large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere which can be expressed in terms of mean pressure patterns are amenable to long range analysis. Thus the problem reduces to finding a link between mean planetary pressure patterns and precipitation in the Hawaiian Islands
Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 1032 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Technical Report Air Weather Service written by United States. Air Weather Service and published by . This book was released on 1960 with total page 1016 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book United States Government Publications Monthly Catalog written by United States. Superintendent of Documents and published by . This book was released on 1950 with total page 1774 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: February issue includes Appendix entitled Directory of United States Government periodicals and subscription publications; September issue includes List of depository libraries; June and December issues include semiannual index.
Download or read book United States Government Publications Monthly Catalog written by and published by . This book was released on 1950 with total page 1596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sealift written by and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1951 with total page 1314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
