Download or read book Okun s Law Development and Demographics Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.

Download or read book Okun s Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.

Download or read book Labor Market Policies and Unemployment in Morocco written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the impact of labor market policies on unemployment in Morocco. They begin by reviewing the main features of the labor market. Then they present a quantitative framework that captures many of these features-such as a large public sector, high redundancy payments, powerful trade unions, and international labor migration. The authors simulate the impact of a cut in the minimum wage and a reduction in payroll taxation. The results indicate that these policies may have a significant impact in the short term on open unskilled unemployment. But they also show that labor market reforms, to be effective in the long run, may need to be accompanied by offsetting changes in the budget to avoid crowding-out effects on private investment.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Political Economy Perspectives on the Greek Crisis written by Ioannis Bournakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive guide to the on-going Greek debt crisis. It identifies and explains Greece’s idiosyncratic weaknesses, and highlights the existing rigidities in the EU architecture that make the recovery prospects of the Greek economy challenging. Chapters from expert contributors highlight aspects of the performance of the Greek economy with focus on export performance, labour market conditions, political cycles and regional income disparities. The book then goes on to outline the banking system in Greece in the post-crisis era, and includes analysis that explains how the credit rating score affected Greece’s borrowing capacity prior to the start of the insolvency crisis. The final part analyses and compares alternative scenarios of fiscal consolidation, seeking to identify whether there are alternatives to fiscal austerity and the impact of each one of them. This section also clarifies various misconceptions about the significant determinants of international competitiveness. Despite the focus of the book, the lessons drawn from the chapters are not limited to Greece. This volume will be of interest to academics, practitioners and policy makers who wish to take a closer look at the Greek debt crisis and learn more about the challenges the Greek economy is currently facing.

Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.

Download or read book Making Globalization Work written by Joseph E. Stiglitz and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2007-08-28 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz focuses on policies that truly work and offers fresh, new thinking about the questions that shape the globalization debate.

Download or read book Policy and Choice written by William J. Congdon and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Argues that public finance--the study of the government's role in economics--should incorporate principles from behavior economics and other branches of psychology.

Download or read book Lectures on Macroeconomics written by Olivier Blanchard and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1989-03-21 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of Lectures on Macroeconomics is to characterize and explain fluctuations in output, unemployment and movement in prices. Lectures on Macroeconomics provides the first comprehensive description and evaluation of macroeconomic theory in many years. While the authors' perspective is broad, they clearly state their assessment of what is important and what is not as they present the essence of macroeconomic theory today.The main purpose of Lectures on Macroeconomics is to characterize and explain fluctuations in output, unemployment and movement in prices. The most important fact of modern economic history is persistent long term growth, but as the book makes clear, this growth is far from steady. The authors analyze and explore these fluctuations. Topics include consumption and investment; the Overlapping Generations Model; money; multiple equilibria, bubbles, and stability; the role of nominal rigidities; competitive equilibrium business cycles, nominal rigidities and economic fluctuations, goods, labor and credit markets; and monetary and fiscal policy issues. Each of chapters 2 through 9 discusses models appropriate to the topic. Chapter 10 then draws on the previous chapters, asks which models are the workhorses of macroeconomics, and sets the models out in convenient form. A concluding chapter analyzes the goals of economic policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and dynamic inconsistency. Written as a text for graduate students with some background in macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics, Lectures on Macroeconomics also presents topics in a self contained way that makes it a suitable reference for professional economists.

Download or read book Economic growth and employment generation nexus Insight from Ghana written by Baah-Boateng, William and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2016-01-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ghana is undoubtedly regarded as one of the leading lights in Africa in terms of strong growth performance since the wind of economic reforms blew across Africa in the 1980s.The challenge has, however, been the effect of this remarkable growth story on the creation of sufficient jobs for the increasing working age population. This paper uses arithmetic computation and econometric estimation to measure and assess the employment effect of the level and sources of growth on the employment generation. It further shows the role of education in the job creation debate. The empirical analysis indicates significantly moderate effects of economic growth on employment generation and the extent of employment response to growth has continued to decline since the beginning of the new millennium. The analysis also shows that economic growth impelled largely by higher growth of agriculture and manufacturing relative to other sectors is improving job creation impact. On the supply-side, improved education of the workforce above the basic level has significantly increasing the employment-generating effect. The paper recommends a change in policy direction from a high obsession with growth without paying attention to the source of the growth. Thus, for growth to sufficiently impact job creation requires a policy shift towards employment-focussed growth through high productive agriculture and manufacturing. Ghana can also leverage the strong growth performance of the extractive, finance and telecommunication sectors by channelling the returns from these sectors into infrastructure development to support the growth of agriculture and manufacturing.

Download or read book The Political Economy of Prosperity written by Arthur M. Okun and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2020 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-07-07 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Download or read book A New Growth Model for the Greek Economy written by Panagiotis E. Petrakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-31 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On June 3, 2015, the Greek Parliamentary Budget Office, the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, the Democritus University of Thrace, and the University of Peloponnese sponsored an international conference to address medium- and long-term growth in Greece. This collection presents the strongest papers on the conditions required to revive and maintain economic growth. Leading experts cover almost every major issue identified in the latest literature, from demographic issues and proposals for export strategy to the need for innovation and structural reform. The combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing present conditions make this ground-breaking collection a valuable resource for a variety of academics, professional economists, and economic policy practitioners planting the seeds of Greece's future.

Download or read book Non linear Time Series written by Howell Tong and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1990 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by an internationally recognized expert in the field, this book provides a valuable introduction to the rapidly growing area of non-linear time series. Because developments in the study of dynamical systems have motivated many of the advances discussed here, the author's coverage includes such fundamental concepts of dynamical systems theory as limit cycles, Lyapunov functions, thresholds, and stability, with detailed descriptions of their role in the analysis of non-linear time series data. As the first accessible and comprehensive account of these exciting new developments, this unique volume bridges the gap between linear and chaotic time series analysis. Both statisticians and dynamical systems theorists will value its survey of recent developments and the present state of research, as well as the discussion of a number of unsolved problems in the field.

Download or read book Fairness in Law and Economics written by Lee Anne Fennell and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the relationship between fairness and the economic concept of efficiency is usually cast as an adversarial one, this collection demonstrates the robust and diverse ways in which economics engages - and cannot avoid engaging - with fairness. Part I contains papers presenting positive analyses of fairness preferences and beliefs, which are fundamental means through which fairness matters for economic models. Part II turns to normative analysis and the broad question of how law should reconcile fairness and efficiency considerations. Part III presents a sampling of legal and policy applications in which both fairness and efficiency considerations prove important. Along with an original introduction by the editors this is a must-have volume that will appeal to students, academics and practitioners who are interested in this exciting field.

Download or read book The Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures written by Garry D. A. Phillips and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-08-09 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book was first published in 2007. The small sample properties of estimators and tests are frequently too complex to be useful or are unknown. Much econometric theory is therefore developed for very large or asymptotic samples where it is assumed that the behaviour of estimators and tests will adequately represent their properties in small samples. Refined asymptotic methods adopt an intermediate position by providing improved approximations to small sample behaviour using asymptotic expansions. Dedicated to the memory of Michael Magdalinos, whose work is a major contribution to this area, this book contains chapters directly concerned with refined asymptotic methods. In addition, there are chapters focusing on new asymptotic results; the exploration through simulation of the small sample behaviour of estimators and tests in panel data models; and improvements in methodology. With contributions from leading econometricians, this collection will be essential reading for researchers and graduate students concerned with the use of asymptotic methods in econometric analysis.