Download or read book Expert Judgment and Expert Systems written by Jeryl L. Mumpower and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Download or read book Expertise and Decision Support written by F. Bolger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-19 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with eliciting and validating expert knowledge are discussed. Dem- strations of good judgmental performance are linked to situational factors such as feedback cycles, and measurement of coherence and reliability in expert ju- ment is introduced as a baseline determinant of good judgmental performance. Issues concerned with the representation of elicited expert knowledge in kno- edge-based systems are evaluated and methods are described that have been shown to produce improvements in judgmental performance. Behavioral and mathematical ways of combining judgments from multiple experts are compared and contrasted. Finally, the issues developed in the preceding contributions are focused on current controversies in decision support. Expert judgment is utilized as a major input into decision analysis, forecasting with statistical models, and expert s- tems.
Download or read book Expert Judgment in Project Management written by Paul Szwed and published by Project Management Institute. This book was released on 2016-04-01 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement written by Mary A. Meyer and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Jane M. Booker and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Toward a General Theory of Expertise written by K. Anders Ericsson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-08-30 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last twenty years our understanding of expertise has dramatically increased. Laboratory analysis of chess masters, experts in physics and medicine, musicians, athletics, writers, and performance artists have included careful examination of the cognitive processes mediating outstanding performance in very diverse areas of expertise. These analyses have shown that expert performance is primarily a reflection of acquired skill resulting from the accumulation of domain-specific knowledge and methods during many years of training practice. The importance of domain-specific knowledge has led researchers on expertise to focus on characteristics of expertise in specific domains. In Toward a General Theory of Expertise many of the world's foremost scientists review the state-of-the-art knowledge about expertise in different domains, with the goal of identifying characteristics of expert performance that are generalizable across many different areas of expertise. These essays provide a comprehensive summary of general methods for studying expertise and of current knowledge about expertise in chess, physics, medicine, sports and performance arts, music, writing, and decision making. Most important, the essays reveal the existence of many general characteristics of expertise.
Download or read book Research on Judgment and Decision Making written by William M. Goldstein and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1997-06-13 with total page 772 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field that investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on "connections" explore memory, explanation and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on "controversies" presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field. Students and researchers in psychology who have an interest in cognitive processes will find this text to be rewarding reading.
Download or read book Landscape scale Conservation Planning written by Stephen C. Trombulak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hugh P. Possingham Landscape-scale conservation planning is coming of age. In the last couple of decades, conservation practitioners, working at all levels of governance and all spatial scales, have embraced the CARE principles of conservation planning – Comprehensiveness, Adequacy, Representativeness, and Efficiency. Hundreds of papers have been written on this theme, and several different kinds of software program have been developed and used around the world, making conservation planning based on these principles global in its reach and influence. Does this mean that all the science of conservation planning is over – that the discovery phase has been replaced by an engineering phase as we move from defining the rules to implementing them in the landscape? This book and the continuing growth in the literature suggest that the answer to this question is most definitely ‘no. ’ All of applied conservation can be wrapped up into a single sentence: what should be done (the action), in what place, at what time, using what mechanism, and for what outcome (the objective). It all seems pretty simple – what, where, when, how and why. However stating a problem does not mean it is easy to solve.
Download or read book Practical Distillation Control written by W.L. Luyben and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Distillation column control has been the the "Lehigh inquisition" and survived! So it subject of many, many papers over the last has been tested by the fire of both actual half century. Several books have been de review by a hard-nosed plant experience and voted to various aspects of the subject. The group of practically oriented skeptics. technology is quite extensive and diffuse. In selecting the authors and the topics, There are also many conflicting opinions the emphasis has been on keeping the ma about some of the important questions. terial practical and useful, so some subjects We hope that the collection under one that are currently of mathematical and the cover of contributions from many of the oretical interest, but have not been demon leading authorities in the field of distillation strated to have practical importance, have control will help to consolidate, unify, and not been included. clarify some of this vast technology. The The book is divided about half and half contributing authors of this book represent between methodology and specific applica tion examples. Chapters 3 through 14 dis both industrial and academic perspectives, and their cumulative experience in the area cuss techniques and methods that have of distillation control adds up to over 400 proven themselves to be useful tools in at tacking distillation control problems.
Download or read book Evolution of a Research Prototype Expert System for Endemic Populations of Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Dale L. Bartos and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Human Judgment and Social Policy written by Kenneth R. Hammond and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1996 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all.
Download or read book AIME 89 written by Jim Hunter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Second European Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Medicine followed the successful meeting in Marseilles in 1987. As for AIME 87, the goal of AIME 89 was to promote scientific interchange within and between all subfields of AI in medicine, among researchers from all over the world, and especially from Europe. There were sessions on: knowledge elicidation and acquisition, architectures for medical knowledge-based systems, clinical applications, methodology, reasoning based on physiological models, and uncertainty. It is clear form the quality of papers presented, that the rate of development which took place between the Pavia meeting of 1985 and AIME 87 has been well maintained. With the launch of the European Community's exploratory programme in Advanced Informatics in Medicine in Europe, 1989 is clearly a very important year for this discipline. AIME 89 provided an important forum which demonstrated progress in some of the more difficult methodological problems, and advances in the application of these techniques to real-world medicine. This volume should be consulted by anyone who wishes to appreciate the state of the art in Medical AI in Europe.
Download or read book Climate and Food Security written by and published by Int. Rice Res. Inst.. This book was released on 1989 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Food security and agricultural research; Climatic variability and crop yields; Climatic vulnerability of major food crops; Climatic variability and factors of agricultural production; Climate modeling and climate change; Social and economic implications of climate-food interaction; Strategies for coping with climatic fluctuation and change.
Download or read book Value and Capital Management written by Thomas C. Wilson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-08-31 with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A value management framework designed specifically for banking and insurance The Value Management Handbook is a comprehensive, practical reference written specifically for bank and insurance valuation and value management. Spelling out how the finance and risk functions add value in their respective spheres, this book presents a framework for measuring – and more importantly, influencing – the value of the firm from the position of the CFO and CRO. Case studies illustrating value-enhancing initiatives are designed to help Heads of Strategy offer CEOs concrete ideas toward creating more value, and discussion of "hard" and "soft" skills put CFOs and CROs in a position to better influence strategy and operations. The challenge of financial services valuation is addressed in terms of the roles of risk and capital, and business-specific "value trees" demonstrate the source of successful value enhancement initiatives. While most value management resources fail to adequately address the unique role of risk and capital in banks, insurance, and asset management, this book fills the gap by providing concrete, business-specific information that connects management actions and value creation, helping readers to: Measure value accurately for more productive value-based management initiatives and evaluation of growth opportunities Apply a quantitative, risk-adjusted value management framework reconciled with the way financial services shares are valued by the market Develop a value set specific to the industry to inspire initiatives that increase the firm's value Study the quantitative and qualitative management frameworks that move CFOs and CROs from measurement to management The roles of CFO and CRO in financial firms have changed dramatically over the past decade, requiring business savvy and the ability to challenge the CEO. The Value Management Handbook provides the expert guidance that leads CFOs and CROs toward better information, better insight, and better decisions.
Download or read book Expert Systems written by Michel Klein and published by Addison Wesley Publishing Company. This book was released on 1990 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
