Download or read book Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each quarter since 1968 the National Bureau of Economic Research, in collaboration with the American Statistical Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a progress report on a comprehensive study of the distribution of individual predictions from these surveys. It covers forecasts of quarterly developments in the year ahead for six variables representing inflation, real growth, unemployment, percentage changes in GNP and spending on consumer durables, and business inventory investment. The 79 respondents who participated in at least 12 of the 42 surveys covered constitute a broadly based and diversified group of experts and agents, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government and academic forecasters. The data are in certain respects uniquely rich. The first part of the paper reviews briefly the models of economic expectations and discusses the potential and problems of using survey data for testing these models. The second part offers a comparative analysis of the individual prediction series from the NBER-ASA as well as some earlier surveys. There are gains from combining predictions from different sources, e.g., the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts or expectations. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative 2erformances of individual fore- casters, some of whom score well above average with respect to several variables and predictive horizons. The third section presents the distributions of an array of absolute accuracy measures for the survey respondents, regressions of actual on predicted values, and associated tests of bias and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and realizations tend to decrease, as the target quarter recedes into the future. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of the other variables generally in much better light. Inflation has been largely underestimated, with the predicted rates lagging behind the actual rates. On the other hand, real growth has been on the average overestimated. The incidence of autocorrelation in the prediction errors was also much higher for inflation than for the other variables. A summary of findings is provided. The fifth and last section lists some additional questions raised by this study, to be dealt with in another paper.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Feature Papers of Forecasting written by Sonia Leva and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowadays, forecast applications are receiving unprecedent attention thanks to their capability to improve the decision-making processes by providing useful indications. A large number of forecast approaches related to different forecast horizons and to the specific problem that have to be predicted have been proposed in recent scientific literature, from physical models to data-driven statistic and machine learning approaches. In this Special Issue, the most recent and high-quality researches about forecast are collected. A total of nine papers have been selected to represent a wide range of applications, from weather and environmental predictions to economic and management forecasts. Finally, some applications related to the forecasting of the different phases of COVID in Spain and the photovoltaic power production have been presented.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, real qrowth, unemployment,and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components.The data come from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association and cover more than 70 individuals professionally engaged in forecasting the course of the U. S.economy (mostly economists, analysts, and executives from the world of corporate business and finance). There is considerable differentiation among these forecasts, across the individuals, variables, and predictive horizons covered. Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result insignificant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over timemore accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate deqree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.
Download or read book Statistical Reference Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Lottery Mindset Investors Gambling and the Stock Market written by W. Fong and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-07 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial markets are growing in complexity, and there is an increased risk that investors are led to investment products and strategies they do not fully understand. The crisis-ridden decade of the 2000s is a stark reminder of how poorly managed finances can wreak havoc on household finances. Traditional finance assumes that all investors are risk-averse and require a risk premium from investing in risky assets such as stocks. However, recent developments in behavioural finance show that many individual investors often adopt strategies that lead to serious investment missteps, including over-investing in lottery-type stocks and securities. Lottery-type securities in fact attract investors who may be risk-seeking or are strongly influenced by cognitive biases ranging from overconfidence to being over-optimistic about future investment returns, especially during periods of high sentiment. Drawing on existing and new research, The Lottery Mindset summarizes the behavioural motivations and detrimental impact of investment strategies which are popular with individual investors. Wai-Mun Fong provides insight and guidance on behavioural biases, and successful investment. By both reviewing and contributing to exiting literature on this topic, this book will be of use to academics and general readers alike.
Download or read book The Study of the Future written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Economic Forecasting written by Matthew L. Higgins and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2011 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book's contributors assess the performance of economic forecasting methods, argue that data can be better exploited through model and forecast combination, and advocate for models that are adaptive and perform well in the presence of nonlinearity and structural change.
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys Euro Area 2009 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2009-01-14 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of OECD's periodic survey of the Euro Area economy finds a slowing economy, receding inflationary pressures and financial market turmoil The survey focuses of key challenges being faced including financial market stability, fiscal ...
Download or read book Introductory Business and Economic Forecasting written by Paul Newbold and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1994 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rev. ed. of: Introductory business forecasting. 1990. Includes bibliographical references and index.
Download or read book Current Issues in Monetary Economics written by Taradas Bandyopadhyay and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 1990 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together leading academics and researchers to make a timely contribution to our understanding of the key issues in the fast-developing field of monetary economics. It offers a thoroughly comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of major areas such as money supply and demand, interest rate determination, international transmission of inflation, public debt, stabilization of the economy, the rational expectations hypothesis and the relationship between money and economic development. The book will be essential reading for all undergraduate and graduate students of monetary economics and macroeconomic theory. Contents: Preface; Contributors; Introduction: Taradas Bandyopadhyay and Subrata Ghatak; Money demand and supply, M.J. Artis and M.K. Lewis; Money market operations of the Bank of England and the determination of interest rates, David T. Llewellyn; Real interest rates and the role of expectations, Kajal Lahiri and Mark Zaporowski; Public sector deficits and the money supply, P.M. Jackson; The international transmission of inflation, George Zis; A critique of monetary theories of the balance of payments; nihil ex nihilo, M.H.L. Burstein; A framework for the analysis of two-tier exchange markets with incomplete segmentation, Jagdeep S. Bhandari and Bernard Decaluwe; Rational expectations and monetary policy, Patrick Minford; Monetary policy and credibility, Paul Levine; Disinflation and wage-price controls, David A. Wilton; Monetary growth models: The role of money demand functions, Taradas Bandyopadhyay and Subrata Ghatak; Index.
Download or read book Web Based and Traditional Outsourcing written by Vivek Sharma and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's increasingly competitive business environment, organizations must be able to adapt to the ever-changing business landscape where traditional business concepts no longer ensure success. The future will be driven by value and competing ideas-creating an environment where old alignments and equations will be replaced by a global network of
Download or read book Financial Management written by Jack Alexander and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2024-01-31 with total page 727 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and insightful approach enabling finance mangers to contribute to business performance and valuation In Financial Management: Partner in Driving Performance and Value, experienced financial executive and consultant Jack Alexander delivers a fresh, new take on improving performance and creating shareholder value for CFOs, controllers, C-suite executives, and FP&A professionals. In the book, you’ll learn about best practices in operational and strategic planning, forecasting, enterprise performance management, business valuation, capital investment, mergers and acquisitions, developing finance talent, supporting growth, and more. Frameworks for dealing with the pace of change and level of uncertainty in today’s environment are also provided, including scenario planning, business agility and monitoring external forces. The book provides actionable insights and practical tools for finance professionals to contribute as trusted advisors and business partners. The author offers free access to financial models in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint templates on the accompanying website, as well as: Expanded and enhanced content from the author’s widely read previous works Models, illustrations, examples, and dashboards Anecdotes and stories drawn from the author’s 45-year-long career in financial leadership Perfect for CFOs, controllers, financial executives, financial planning and analysis professionals, and accounting managers, Financial Management is also the ideal desk reference for treasurers, strategic planners, Certified Public Accountants, and equity research analysts. It’s an essential and timely resource for financial leaders everywhere.
Download or read book Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section written by American Statistical Association. Business and Economic Statistics Section and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 686 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
