Download or read book Evolution of Crude Oil Price Term Structure written by Georgi Marinov and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of the book is on the lessons that can be learned by "reading" the crude oil price term structure correctly - i.e. in formation of trading strategies or making forecasts. The analysis goes back to the period when trading crude oil was becoming popular and traces the conditions that led to the inevitable need for creating oil futures and markets where they are traded. The main aim of the book is to go into the details of the crude oil price term structure in order to understand how it reflects the prevailing market conditions and how the various market participants use it in their strategic decision-making activities. This book could be helpful to students who are interested in crude oil and the economics behind crude oil and crude oil products; to post-graduate students and researchers who are interested in deepening their knowledge of term structure as used in the crude oil industry; to professionals who want to explore the practical implications of concepts such as "contango" and "backwardation" and the hints one can get by interpreting correctly the crude oil price term structure for building a successful trading strategy.
Download or read book The Evolution of Oil Markets written by Joe Roeber and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure written by Delphine Lautier and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To what extent are futures prices interconnected across the maturity curve? Where in the term structure do price shocks originate, and which maturities do they reach? We propose a new approach, based on information theory, to study these cross-maturity linkages and the extent to which connectedness is impacted by market events. We introduce the concepts of backward and forward information flows, and propose a novel type of directed graph, to investigate the propagation of price shocks across the WTI term structure. Using daily data, we show that the mutual information shared by contracts with different maturities increases substantially starting in 2004, falls back sharply in 2011-2014, and recovers thereafter. Our findings point to a puzzling re-segmentation by maturity of the WTI market in 2012-2014. We document that, on average, short-dated futures emit more information than do backdated contracts. Importantly, however, we also show that significant amounts of information flow backwards along the maturity curve - almost always from intermediate maturities, but at times even from far-dated contracts. These backward flows are especially strong and far-reaching amid the 2007-2008 oil price boom/bust.
Download or read book Forecasting the Term Structure of Crude Oil Futures Prices with Neural Networks written by Jozef Baruník and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed framework is empirically tested on 24 years of crude oil futures prices covering several important recessions and crisis periods. We find 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month-ahead forecasts obtained from focused time-delay neural network to be significantly more accurate than forecasts from other benchmark models. The proposed forecasting strategy produces the lowest errors across all times to maturity.
Download or read book An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Term Structure of Oil Futures Prices written by Jacques Gabillon and published by . This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trading and Price Discovery for Crude Oils written by Adi Imsirovic and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2021-06-18 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a book about the international oil market. It takes a historical perspective on how the market emerged, developed, and became what it is today—the biggest commodity market in the world. It is mature and complex, but far from perfect. Throughout most of its 150-year history, the oil market has been monopolised by companies and governments. For only a fraction of that, oil traded in a relatively free market. As a result, we had to live with ‘big oil’, economic shocks, high oil prices, instability and wars. Using a simple concept of market power, this book will explain the meaning of ‘oil price’ and how it is established while offering a valuable lesson for other commodities. Market power is the key to understanding the ‘price of oil’. This book uses a simple concept of price-makers and price-takers to examine the evolution of oil markets, their structure, and prices. The early decades of the oil industry were competitive with low barriers to entry. Barely 25 years later, the Standard Oil company created a refining monopoly, buying oil at its own ‘posted’ price. In the following century, the cartel of major oil companies, helped by their governments, did the same at the international level. OPEC helped producing governments regain control of their own resources, but the organisation was never able to retain a similar level of control. After 1986 price collapse, OPEC abdicated the price-making function in favour of the market. While it never gave up attempts to influence prices, OPEC had to link their official prices to one of the global oil benchmarks. Modern international oil markets function because of oil benchmarks such as Brent, WTI and Dubai. This book showcases: • How oil traders played a prominent role in development of the industry • How policies of consuming nations helped oil cartels • Why and how the US price of oil was negative • How AI has changed the way markets operate and the way in which the markets are likely to change in future This book explores how oil markets grew, functioned, and have occasionally failed to do their job. The ecosystem of derivatives or ‘paper barrels’ trading in far greater volume than physical oil plays a very important role in mitigating risk. With this core tenant, setting the ‘price of oil’ is explained in detail.
Download or read book Information in the Term Structure of WTI Crude Oil Futures written by Donal Bredin and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Download or read book Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-11-05 with total page 725 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development.This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodi
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Commodity Derivatives written by Neil C. Schofield and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-25 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications, Neil Schofield provides a complete and accessible reference for anyone working in, or studying commodity markets and their associated derivatives. Dealing primarily with over the counter structures, the book provides extensive coverage of both hard and soft commodities, including gold, crude oil, electricity, plastics, emissions and agriculturals. Using structures unique to the individual market, each chapter includes an explanation of the commodity and an analysis of its physical market, discussion on the typical patterns of demand and supply and the main factors that will influence the price of the commodity, and the main products. Each chapter focuses on how the products could be used along the physical supply chain and seeks to identify the main market risks and how they can be hedged. The book then brings into perspective how the structuring banks hedge their own resultant exposure and examines the attraction of OTC investment structures for the wholesale market. Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications is essential reading for those wishing to learn about the main features of the commodity markets, the mechanics of derivatives, and how they are applied.
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Financial Models written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-09-12 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 1 of the Encyclopedia of Financial Models The need for serious coverage of financial modeling has never been greater, especially with the size, diversity, and efficiency of modern capital markets. With this in mind, the Encyclopedia of Financial Models has been created to help a broad spectrum of individuals ranging from finance professionals to academics and students understand financial modeling and make use of the various models currently available. Incorporating timely research and in-depth analysis, Volume 1 of the Encyclopedia of Financial Models covers both established and cutting-edge models and discusses their real-world applications. Edited by Frank Fabozzi, this volume includes contributions from global financial experts as well as academics with extensive consulting experience in this field. Organized alphabetically by category, this reliable resource consists of thirty-nine informative entries and provides readers with a balanced understanding of today's dynamic world of financial modeling. Volume 1 addresses Asset Pricing Models, Bayesian Analysis and Financial Modeling Applications, Bond Valuation Modeling, Credit Risk Modeling, and Derivatives Valuation Emphasizes both technical and implementation issues, providing researchers, educators, students, and practitioners with the necessary background to deal with issues related to financial modeling The 3-Volume Set contains coverage of the fundamentals and advances in financial modeling and provides the mathematical and statistical techniques needed to develop and test financial models Financial models have become increasingly commonplace, as well as complex. They are essential in a wide range of financial endeavors, and the Encyclopedia of Financial Models will help put them in perspective.
Download or read book Fuel Hedging and Risk Management written by Simo M. Dafir and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-04 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A hands-on guide to navigating the new fuel markets Fuel Hedging and Risk Management: Strategies for Airlines, Shippers and Other Consumers provides a clear and practical understanding of commodity price dynamics, key fuel hedging techniques, and risk management strategies for the corporate fuel consumer. It covers the commodity markets and derivative instruments in a manner accessible to corporate treasurers, financial officers, risk managers, commodity traders, structurers, as well as quantitative professionals dealing in the energy markets. The book includes a wide variety of key topics related to commodities and derivatives markets, financial risk analysis of commodity consumers, hedge program design and implementation, vanilla derivatives and exotic hedging products. The book is unique in providing intuitive guidance on understanding the dynamics of forward curves and volatility term structure for commodities, fuel derivatives valuation and counterparty risk concepts such as CVA, DVA and FVA. Fully up-to-date and relevant, this book includes comprehensive case studies that illustrate the hedging process from conception to execution and monitoring of hedges in diverse situations. This practical guide will help the reader: Gain expert insight into all aspects of fuel hedging, price and volatility drivers and dynamics. Develop a framework for financial risk analysis and hedge programs. Navigate volatile energy markets by employing effective risk management techniques. Manage unwanted risks associated with commodity derivatives by understanding liquidity and credit risk calculations, exposure optimization techniques, credit charges such as CVA, DVA, FVA, etc.
