Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Download or read book Expert written by Roger Kneebone and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2020-08-27 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Roger Kneebone is a legend' Mark Miodownik, author of Stuff Matters 'Fascinating and inspiring' Financial Times 'The pandemic has made the necessity of relying on experts evident to all . . . this is a rich exploration of lifelong learning' Guardian What could a lacemaker have in common with vascular surgeons? A Savile Row tailor with molecular scientists? A fighter pilot with jazz musicians? At first glance, very little. But Roger Kneebone is the expert on experts, having spent a lifetime finding the connections. In Expert, he combines his own experiences as a doctor with insights from extraordinary people and cutting-edge research to map out the path we're all following - from 'doing time' as an Apprentice, to developing your 'voice' and taking on responsibility as a Journeyman, to finally becoming a Master and passing on your skills. As Kneebone shows, although each outcome is different, the journey is always the same. Whether you're developing a new career, studying a language, learning a musical instrument or simply becoming the person you want to be, this ground-breaking book reveals the path to mastery.
Download or read book The Death of Expertise written by Tom Nichols and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--
Download or read book The First 20 Hours written by Josh Kaufman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2013-06-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forget the 10,000 hour rule— what if it’s possible to learn the basics of any new skill in 20 hours or less? Take a moment to consider how many things you want to learn to do. What’s on your list? What’s holding you back from getting started? Are you worried about the time and effort it takes to acquire new skills—time you don’t have and effort you can’t spare? Research suggests it takes 10,000 hours to develop a new skill. In this nonstop world when will you ever find that much time and energy? To make matters worse, the early hours of practicing something new are always the most frustrating. That’s why it’s difficult to learn how to speak a new language, play an instrument, hit a golf ball, or shoot great photos. It’s so much easier to watch TV or surf the web . . . In The First 20 Hours, Josh Kaufman offers a systematic approach to rapid skill acquisition— how to learn any new skill as quickly as possible. His method shows you how to deconstruct complex skills, maximize productive practice, and remove common learning barriers. By completing just 20 hours of focused, deliberate practice you’ll go from knowing absolutely nothing to performing noticeably well. Kaufman personally field-tested the methods in this book. You’ll have a front row seat as he develops a personal yoga practice, writes his own web-based computer programs, teaches himself to touch type on a nonstandard keyboard, explores the oldest and most complex board game in history, picks up the ukulele, and learns how to windsurf. Here are a few of the simple techniques he teaches: Define your target performance level: Figure out what your desired level of skill looks like, what you’re trying to achieve, and what you’ll be able to do when you’re done. The more specific, the better. Deconstruct the skill: Most of the things we think of as skills are actually bundles of smaller subskills. If you break down the subcomponents, it’s easier to figure out which ones are most important and practice those first. Eliminate barriers to practice: Removing common distractions and unnecessary effort makes it much easier to sit down and focus on deliberate practice. Create fast feedback loops: Getting accurate, real-time information about how well you’re performing during practice makes it much easier to improve. Whether you want to paint a portrait, launch a start-up, fly an airplane, or juggle flaming chainsaws, The First 20 Hours will help you pick up the basics of any skill in record time . . . and have more fun along the way.
Download or read book Everyone Has Something written by Sarah Kesty and published by . This book was released on 2013-04-09 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book You Say More Than You Think written by Janine Driver and published by Harmony. This book was released on 2011-01-04 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now You’re Talking! Do you want to be bulletproof at work, secure in your relationship, and content in your own skin? If so, it’s more important than ever to be aware of what your body is saying to the outside world. Unfortunately, most of what you’ve heard from other body language experts is wrong, and, as a result, your actions may be hurting, not helping, you. With sass and a keen eye, media favorite Janine Driver teaches you the skills she used every day to stay alive during her fifteen years as a body-language expert at the ATF. Janine’s 7-day plan and her 7-second solutions teach you dozens of body language fixes to turn any interpersonal situation to your advantage. She reveals methods here that other experts refuse to share with the public, and she debunks major myths other experts swear are fact: Giving more eye contact is key when you’re trying to impress someone. Not necessarily true. It’s actually more important where you point your belly button. This small body shift communicates true interest more powerfully than constant eye contact. The “steeple” hand gesture will give you the upper hand during negotiations and business meetings. Wrong. Driver has seen this overbearing gesture backfire more often than not. Instead, she suggests two new steeples that give you power without making you seem overly aggressive: the Basketball Steeple and the A-OK Two-Fingered Steeple. Happy people command power and attention by smiling just before they meet new people. Studies have shown that people who do this are viewed as Beta Leaders. Alpha leaders smile once they shake your hand and hear your name. At a time when every advantage counts—and first impressions matter more than ever—this is the book to help you really get your message across.
Download or read book Smart Citizens Smarter State written by Beth Simone Noveck and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2015-11-02 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Government “of the people, by the people, for the people” expresses an ideal that resonates in all democracies. Yet poll after poll reveals deep distrust of institutions that seem to have left “the people” out of the governing equation. Government bureaucracies that are supposed to solve critical problems on their own are a troublesome outgrowth of the professionalization of public life in the industrial age. They are especially ill-suited to confronting today’s complex challenges. Offering a far-reaching program for innovation, Smart Citizens, Smarter State suggests that public decisionmaking could be more effective and legitimate if government were smarter—if our institutions knew how to use technology to leverage citizens’ expertise. Just as individuals use only part of their brainpower to solve most problems, governing institutions make far too little use of the skills and experience of those inside and outside of government with scientific credentials, practical skills, and ground-level street smarts. New tools—what Beth Simone Noveck calls technologies of expertise—are making it possible to match the supply of citizen expertise to the demand for it in government. Drawing on a wide range of academic disciplines and practical examples from her work as an adviser to governments on institutional innovation, Noveck explores how to create more open and collaborative institutions. In so doing, she puts forward a profound new vision for participatory democracy rooted not in the paltry act of occasional voting or the serendipity of crowdsourcing but in people’s knowledge and know-how.
Download or read book Instant Expert 1 O P written by Planet Lonely and published by Lonely Planet. This book was released on 2014-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The follow-up to Lonely Planet's hit The Book of Everything, Instant Expert contains all that a world traveller needs to know. It's witty and full of brilliant illustrations of all types by noted infographics illustrator Nigel Holmes.
Download or read book The Audio Expert written by Ethan Winer and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Audio Expert is a comprehensive reference that covers all aspects of audio, with many practical, as well as theoretical, explanations. Providing in-depth descriptions of how audio really works, using common sense plain-English explanations and mechanical analogies with minimal math, the book is written for people who want to understand audio at the deepest, most technical level, without needing an engineering degree. It's presented in an easy-to-read, conversational tone, and includes more than 400 figures and photos augmenting the text. The Audio Expert takes the intermediate to advanced recording engineer or audiophile and makes you an expert. The book goes far beyond merely explaining how audio "works." It brings together the concepts of audio, aural perception, musical instrument physics, acoustics, and basic electronics, showing how they're intimately related. Describing in great detail many of the practices and techniques used by recording and mixing engineers, the topics include video production and computers. Rather than merely showing how to use audio devices such as equalizers and compressors, Ethan Winer explains how they work internally, and how they are spec'd and tested. Most explanations are platform-agnostic, applying equally to Windows and Mac operating systems, and to most software and hardware. TheAudioExpertbook.com, the companion website, has audio and video examples to better present complex topics such as vibration and resonance. There are also videos demonstrating editing techniques and audio processing, as well as interviews with skilled musicians demonstrating their instruments and playing techniques.
Download or read book Surrounded by Idiots written by Thomas Erikson and published by St. Martin's Essentials. This book was released on 2019-07-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do you ever think you’re the only one making any sense? Or tried to reason with your partner with disastrous results? Do long, rambling answers drive you crazy? Or does your colleague’s abrasive manner rub you the wrong way? You are not alone. After a disastrous meeting with a highly successful entrepreneur, who was genuinely convinced he was ‘surrounded by idiots’, communication expert and bestselling author, Thomas Erikson dedicated himself to understanding how people function and why we often struggle to connect with certain types of people. Surrounded by Idiots is an international phenomenon, selling over 1.5 million copies worldwide. It offers a simple, yet ground-breaking method for assessing the personalities of people we communicate with – in and out of the office – based on four personality types (Red, Blue, Green and Yellow), and provides insights into how we can adjust the way we speak and share information. Erikson will help you understand yourself better, hone communication and social skills, handle conflict with confidence, improve dynamics with your boss and team, and get the best out of the people you deal with and manage. He also shares simple tricks on body language, improving written communication, advice on when to back away or when to push on, and when to speak up or shut up. Packed with ‘aha!’ and ‘oh no!’ moments, Surrounded by Idiots will help you understand and communicate with those around you, even people you currently think are beyond all comprehension. And with a bit of luck you can also be confident that the idiot out there isn’t you!
Download or read book Everyone s an Expert written by Karl Dakin and published by . This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone¿s an Expert reveals how Karl Dakin and Ron Yeager build individuals as experts through Above the Crowd products and services. Readers will gain the importance of distinguishing themselves as individuals of knowledge and how status as an expert can help them advance their careers, their businesses and their community projects. Five steps to recognition as an expert will walk readers through a process that makes money while building their reputations.
Download or read book Climate Change A Ladybird Expert Book written by HRH The Prince of Wales and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is climate change? How does it work? Learn from the experts in the ALL-NEW LADYBIRD EXPERT SERIES Learn about one of the most important issues facing our world today in this clear, simple and enlightening introduction. From HRH The Prince of Wales, environmentalist Tony Juniper and climate scientist Dr Emily Shuckburgh, it explains the history, dangers and challenges of global warming and explores possible solutions with which to reduce its impact. You'll learn about . . . - The causes and consequences of climate disruption - Heatwaves, floods and other extreme weather - Disappearing wildlife - Acid oceans - The benefits of limiting warming - Sustainable farming - New, clean technologies - The circular economy Learn about other topics in the Ladybird Experts series including Gravity, Quantum Physics, Climate Change and Evolution. Written by the leading lights and most outstanding communicators in their fields, the Ladybird Expert books provide clear, accessible and authoritative introductions to subjects drawn from science, history and culture. For an adult readership, the Ladybird Expert series is produced in the same iconic small hardback format pioneered by the original Ladybirds. Each beautifully illustrated book features the first new illustrations produced in the original Ladybird style for nearly forty years.
Download or read book The End of Leadership written by Barbara Kellerman and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From one of the pioneers in the field of leadership studies comes a provocative reassessment of how people lead in the digital age: in The End of Leadership, Barbara Kellerman reveals a new way of thinking about leadership—and followership—in the twenty-first century. Building off of the strengths and insights of her work as a scholar and a teacher, Kellerman critically reexamines our most strongly-held assumptions about the role of leadership in driving success. Revealing which of our beliefs have become dangerously out-of-date thanks to advances in social media culture, she also calls into question the value of the so-called “leadership industry” itself. Asking whether leadership can truly be taught, Kellerman forces us to think critically and expansively about how to thrive as leaders in a global information age.
Download or read book Multipliers written by Liz Wiseman and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2010-06-15 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are you a genius or a genius maker? We've all had experience with two dramatically different types of leaders. The first type drain intelligence, energy, and capability from the ones around them and always need to be the smartest ones in the room. These are the idea killers, the energy sappers, the diminishers of talent and commitment. On the other side of the spectrum are leaders who use their intelligence to amplify the smarts and capabilities of the people around them. When these leaders walk into a room, lightbulbs go off over people's heads, ideas flow, and problems get solved. These are the leaders who inspire employees to stretch themselves to deliver results that surpass expectations. These are the Multipliers. And the world needs more of them, especially now, when leaders are expected to do more with less. In this engaging and highly practical book, leadership expert Liz Wiseman and management consultant Greg McKeown explore these two leadership styles, persuasively showing how Multipliers can have a resoundingly positive and profitable effect on organizations—getting more done with fewer resources, developing and attracting talent, and cultivating new ideas and energy to drive organizational change and innovation. In analyzing data from more than 150 leaders, Wiseman and McKeown have identified five disciplines that distinguish Multipliers from Diminishers. These five disciplines are not based on innate talent; indeed, they are skills and practices that everyone can learn to use—even lifelong and recalcitrant Diminishers. Lively, real-world case studies and practical tips and techniques bring to life each of these principles, showing you how to become a Multiplier too, whether you are a new or an experienced manager. Just imagine what you could accomplish if you could harness all the energy and intelligence around you. Multipliers will show you how.
Download or read book Getting Along written by Amy Gallo and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2022-09-13 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Named one of "22 new books…that you should consider reading before the year is out" by Fortune "This practical and empathetic guide to taking the high road is worth a look for workers lost in conflict." — Publisher's Weekly A research-based, practical guide for how to handle difficult people at work. Work relationships can be hard. The stress of dealing with difficult people dampens our creativity and productivity, degrades our ability to think clearly and make sound decisions, and causes us to disengage. We might lie awake at night worrying, withdraw from work, or react in ways we later regret—rolling our eyes in a meeting, snapping at colleagues, or staying silent when we should speak up. Too often we grin and bear it as if we have no choice. Or throw up our hands because one-size-fits-all solutions haven't worked. But you can only endure so much thoughtless, irrational, or malicious behavior—there's your sanity to consider, and your career. In Getting Along, workplace expert and Harvard Business Review podcast host Amy Gallo identifies eight familiar types of difficult coworkers—the insecure boss, the passive-aggressive peer, the know-it-all, the biased coworker, and others—and provides strategies tailored to dealing constructively with each one. She also shares principles that will help you turn things around, no matter who you're at odds with. Taking the high road isn't easy, but Gallo offers a crucial perspective on how work relationships really matter, as well as the compassion, encouragement, and tools you need to prevail—on your terms. She answers questions such as: Why can't I stop thinking about that nasty email?! What's behind my problem colleague's behavior? How can I fix things if they won't cooperate? I've tried everything—what now? Full of relatable, sometimes cringe-worthy examples, the latest behavioral science research, and practical advice you can use right now, Getting Along is an indispensable guide to navigating your toughest relationships at work—and building interpersonal resilience in the process.
Download or read book The Highly Paid Expert written by Debbie Allen and published by Red Wheel/Weiser. This book was released on 2014-07-21 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, no matter what industry you’re in, it’s becoming more and more difficult to stand out from the competition and get the sale when prospects aren’t as loyal as they used to be. How do you get prospects’ attention when they are often swayed by price rather than quality? The key is to become recognized as the go-to expert in your industry, someone whom others actively seek out for top-notch information.By becoming a highly paid expert, you will: Gain a huge edge over the competition. Attract more quality clients who will pay you top dollar for your advice.Open more doors to bigger opportunities.Develop multiple streams of income sharing your knowledge with others.Dominate your industry!The expert industry has been shrouded in myth and mystery for far too long. The Highly Paid Expert finally reveals exactly how you can make a difference sharing your knowledge and get paid top dollar while doing so.
Download or read book Limitless Mind written by Jo Boaler and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2019-09-03 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Boaler is one of those rare and remarkable educators who not only know the secret of great teaching but also know how to give that gift to others.” — CAROL DWECK, author of Mindset “Jo Boaler is one of the most creative and innovative educators today. Limitless Mind marries cutting-edge brain science with her experience in the classroom, not only proving that each of us has limitless potential but offering strategies for how we can achieve it.” — LAURENE POWELL JOBS “A courageous freethinker with fresh ideas on learning.” — BOOKLIST In this revolutionary book, a professor of education at Stanford University and acclaimed math educator who has spent decades studying the impact of beliefs and bias on education, reveals the six keys to unlocking learning potential, based on the latest scientific findings. From the moment we enter school as children, we are made to feel as if our brains are fixed entities, capable of learning certain things and not others, influenced exclusively by genetics. This notion follows us into adulthood, where we tend to simply accept these established beliefs about our skillsets (i.e. that we don’t have “a math brain” or that we aren’t “the creative type”). These damaging—and as new science has revealed, false—assumptions have influenced all of us at some time, affecting our confidence and willingness to try new things and limiting our choices, and, ultimately, our futures. Stanford University professor, bestselling author, and acclaimed educator Jo Boaler has spent decades studying the impact of beliefs and bias on education. In Limitless Mind, she explodes these myths and reveals the six keys to unlocking our boundless learning potential. Her research proves that those who achieve at the highest levels do not do so because of a genetic inclination toward any one skill but because of the keys that she reveals in the book. Our brains are not “fixed,” but entirely capable of change, growth, adaptability, and rewiring. Want to be fluent in mathematics? Learn a foreign language? Play the guitar? Write a book? The truth is not only that anyone at any age can learn anything, but the act of learning itself fundamentally changes who we are, and as Boaler argues so elegantly in the pages of this book, what we go on to achieve.
