Download or read book Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology written by György Bardossy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-01-22 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a well known fact that geological investigations are characterized by particularly high incertainties. Furthermore,decisions related to geology, such as mineral exploration, mining investmentsetc. are connected with higher risks than similar decisions in the branches of industry and economy. Finally there are a number of highly dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, inundations etc. that are directly depending on geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if - possible to predict them. Uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological text-books, conference proceedings and articles, butno overall evaluation of them has been written so far.The complexity of these problems requires a thorough mathematical treatment.This book has been written with the purpose of presenting a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both the geological and the mathematical aspects.
Download or read book Evaluation of Uncertainties and Risks in Geology written by György Bardossy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High levels of uncertainty are a trademark of geological investigations, such as the search for oil, diamonds, and uranium. So business ventures related to geology, such as mineral exploration and mining, are naturally associated with higher risks than more traditional entrepreneurial ventures in industry and economy. There are also a number of dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, and inundations, that are the direct result of geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them all, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if possible - to predict them. While uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological textbooks, conferences papers, and articles, no comprehensive and systematic evaluation has so far been attempted. This book, written at an appropriately sophisticated level to deal with complexity of these problems, presents a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both, the geological and the mathematical aspects.
Download or read book Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Download or read book Risk Assessment Modeling and Decision Support written by Ann Bostrom and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-02-10 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support, and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.
Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling and Decision Making in Geotechnics written by Kok-Kwang Phoon and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-12-11 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty, Modeling, and Decision Making in Geotechnics shows how uncertainty quantification and numerical modeling can complement each other to enhance decision-making in geotechnical practice, filling a critical gap in guiding practitioners to address uncertainties directly. The book helps practitioners acquire a working knowledge of geotechnical risk and reliability methods and guides them to use these methods wisely in conjunction with data and numerical modeling. In particular, it provides guidance on the selection of realistic statistics and a cost-effective, accessible method to address different design objectives, and for different problem settings, and illustrates the value of this to decision-making using realistic examples. Bringing together statistical characterization, reliability analysis, reliability-based design, probabilistic inverse analysis, and physical insights drawn from case studies, this reference guide from an international team of experts offers an excellent resource for state-of-the-practice uncertainty-informed geotechnical design for specialist practitioners and the research community.
Download or read book Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration written by Ian Lerche and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subsequent incorporation of model uncertainties into probabilistic models of basin evolution and behavior constitutes the second half of this book. Throughout, the author interweaves a discussion of scientific probability, risk, and strategy within the context of improving our ability to assess strategic hydrocarbon resources.
Download or read book Geologic Uncertainty in the Development of an Open Pit Mine written by Peter James Rolley and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Risk Management and Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Download or read book Evaluation and Prevention of Natural Risks written by Stefano Campus and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2007-10-18 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment and prevention of risks inherent to natural phenomena is of topical interest to the scientific community and other authorities dealing with territorial management. Historical analysis carried out in the Piemonte-territory in north-western Italy, focusing on the consequences of hydrogeological risks, reveals that damage is continually
Download or read book Rock Engineering Risk written by John A. Hudson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-05-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a new, necessary and valuable approach to the consideration of risk in underground engineering projects constructed within rock masses. There are Chapters on uncertainty and risk, rock engineering systems, rock fractures and rock stress, the design of a repository for radioactive waste, plus two major case examples relating to the headrace tunnels and caverns for a hydroelectric project. These Chapters highlight in detail the authors’ new rock engineering risk approach, especially how monitoring during construction can significantly reduce the construction risks. The book is particularly timely given the current increasing emphasis on geo-engineering safety, accountability and sustainability—which requires stricter attention to risk and greater reliability than ever before. Written by two eminent authors, the two most recent past-Presidents of the International Society for Rock Mechanics (ISRM), this modern and well-illustrated guide on Rock Engineering Risk complements the authors’ previous 2011 book on Rock Engineering Design, also published by Taylor & Francis. The book will benefit engineers, contractors, clients, researchers, lecturers and advanced students who are concerned with rock engineering projects in civil, mining, geological and construction engineering worldwide.
Download or read book GeoRisk 2011 written by Kok Kwang Phoon and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering written by Wolfgang Fellin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual system risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the adopted design, the engineering model, the data, the soil-construction-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristic question of responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction managers who met regularly in a post graduate seminar at the University of Innsbruck during the past years.
Download or read book Natural Hazards and Risk Research in Russia written by Valentina Svalova and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-14 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents natural hazards and risk--one of the fastest-growing and most relevant fields of pure and applied research within geosciences and environmental engineering—from a multi-disciplinary perspective. It examines principles, concepts, and paradigms derived from diverse research studies, and explains operational terms, materials, tools, techniques, and methods used in practice. Collecting the expertise of more than 60 scientists and expert practitioners from across Russia, this authoritative volume is ideal for the diverse range of researchers and professionals concerned with the interaction of natural hazards and the built environment. Maximizes reader understanding of natural hazards research and risk analysis in Russia; Explains relevance and application of primary tools and practices in risk study; Clarifies similarities and differences in fundamental concepts and principles across the discipline; Directs geologists, engineers, architects, planners, teachers, students, and others to authoritative sources.
Download or read book Techniques for Determining Probabilities of Geologic Events and Processes written by Regina L. Hunter and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1992 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set a probabilistic performance standard for geologic repositories intended for the disposal of radioactive wastes. Until now however there has been no consensus on the best way to determine the probabilities of the many events and processes involved. Motivated by this need, this study reviews the relevant literature and evaluates the state of the art, with contributions from experts in mining engineering, hydrology, seismicity and tectonics, volcanology, geochemistry, and resource exploration. The book treats not only geologic events like earthquakes, but also human activities and nongeologic processes such as climate change. The intended audience includes earth scientists, engineers, and policy makers.
Download or read book Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision making practice written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
Download or read book Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems written by Céline Scheidt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-06-19 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under the Earth's surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors' Vox: eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources
Download or read book Exogenous Uncertainties in Earthquake Risk Modeling for Infrastructure Systems written by Craig E. Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2004* with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
