Download or read book Estimating the Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Atmospheric General Circulation Models Using L moments written by Larry Marx and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Variance Decomposition Approach to the Prediction of the Seasonal Mean Circulation written by Xiaogu Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Precipitation Recycling and Land Memory written by Paul A. Dirmeyer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of several approaches to quantifying land-atmosphere interactions is presented. These approaches use data from observations or atmospheric reanalyses applied to atmospheric tracer models and stand-alone land surface schemes. None of these approaches relies on the results of general circulation model simulations. A high degree of correlation is found among these independent approaches, and constructed here is a composite assessment of global land-atmosphere feedback strength as a function of season. The composite combines the characteristics of persistence of soil moisture anomalies, strong soil moisture regulation of evaporation rates, and reinforcement of water cycle anomalies through recycling. The regions and seasons that have a strong composite signal predominate in both summer and winter monsoon regions in the period after the rainy season wanes. However, there are exceptions to this pattern, most notably over the Great Plains of North America and the Pampas/Pantanal of South America, where there are signs of land-atmosphere feedback throughout most of the year. Soil moisture memory in many of these regions is long enough to suggest that real-time monitoring and accurate initialization of the land surface in forecast models could lead to improvements in medium-range weather to subseasonal climate forecasts.
Download or read book Estimating Bounds on Extreme Precipitation Events written by National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Committee on Meteorological Analysis, Prediction, and Research and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Non ENSO Variability and the Regional Climate of Bangladesh written by Benjamin A.. Cash and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Import and Export of Atmospheric Water Vapor Between Nations written by Paul A. Dirmeyer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Air Sea and Land Interactions of the Continental US Hydroclimate written by Vasubandhu Misra and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dry and Wet Conditions in the Contiguous United States written by Zeng-Zhen Hu and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Relation Between Indian Monsoon Variability and SST written by V. Krishnamurthy and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Coupled Interactions of the Monsoons written by Vasubandhu Misra and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Spatial Structure Forecast Errors and Predictability of South Asian Monsoon in CFS Monthly Retrospective Forecasts written by Hae-Kyung Lee Drbohlav and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extreme Precipitation in Illinois written by Andrew Paxton and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme precipitation in Illinois contributes to impacts across diverse landscapes, posing threats to agriculture in rural areas and infrastructure in urban centers. Previous studies have reported an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation in the region and projected its amplification under climate change. However, these findings are often characterized by inconsistent and/or inappropriate approaches for estimating historical trends and their significance and often lack process-based understanding regarding future changes in extreme event climatology. This study aims to obtain robust regional extreme precipitation trends and relate those trends to large-scale circulation and humidity. The climatology and trends of daily extreme precipitation are established by applying a peaks-over-threshold approach to the newly developed NOAA NCEI nClimGrid-D dataset which includes daily precipitation totals at 5-km resolution. For trend estimation, we use Theil-Sen estimation with three approaches designed to emphasize correction of inflation in the significance of the estimated trends: (1) a "naïve" approach in which we simply consider the direct output of the Theil-Sen method and assess significance using a traditional Mann-Kendall test, (2) an approach based on a modified Mann-Kendall test to account for serial autocorrelation in the assessment of significance, and (3) an approach that also controls for the false discovery rate associated with a large number of tests by considering field significance. To relate these trends to large scale drivers, a multivariate self-organizing map is constructed based on standardized 500 mb geopotential height and 850 mb specific humidity obtained from the ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. We use a Monte Carlo experiment to identify weather types most associated with extreme precipitation in the area. Temporal and spatial characteristics of the identified weather types are then analyzed to better understanding their role in changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation events across the region. As expected, the results indicate a stark contrast between the naïve and more complex approaches for significance testing, where controlling for autocorrelation and test multiplicity reduces the spatial extent of significant trends across all extreme precipitation thresholds. Extreme precipitation in Illinois is found to be associated with a small number of specific weather types characterized by distinct patterns of geopotential height and humidity. Furthermore, the weather types most frequently associated with extreme precipitation are increasing in frequency, suggesting that changes in atmospheric circulation related to moisture transport and convergence are a major contributor to changes in extreme precipitation in Illinois.
Download or read book What are the Modeling Requirements for Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate from Days to Decades written by J. Shukla and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Possible Role of the Indian Ocean in the Out of phase Transition of the Australian to Indian Summer Monsoon written by Renguang Wu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Twenty first century Changes in U S Regional Heavy Precipitation Frequency Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precipitation-gauge observations and atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting heavy precipitation events based on prevailing large-scale atmospheric conditions. Combinations of atmospheric variables for circulation (geopotential height and wind vector) and moisture (surface specific humidity, column and up to 500-hPa precipitable water) are examined to construct analogue schemes for the winter [December-February (DJF)] of the "Pacific Coast California" (PCCA) region and the summer [June-August (JJA)] of the Midwestern United States (MWST). The detection diagnostics of analogue schemes are calibrated with 1979-2005 and validated with 2006-14 NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All analogue schemes are found to significantly improve upon MERRA precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events in the MWST. When evaluated with the late twentieth-century climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), all analogue schemes produce model medians of heavy precipitation frequency that are more consistent with observations and have smaller intermodel discrepancies than model-based precipitation. Under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CMIP5-based analogue schemes produce trends in heavy precipitation occurrence through the twenty-first century that are consistent with model-based precipitation, but with smaller intermodel disparity. The median trends in heavy precipitation frequency are positive for DJF over PCCA but are slightly negative for JJA over MWST. Overall, the analyses highlight the potential of the analogue as a powerful diagnostic tool for model deficiencies and its complementarity to an evaluation of heavy precipitation frequency based on model precipitation alone. Keywords: North America; Atmospheric circulation; Extreme events; Flood events; General circulation models; Model evaluation/performance.
Download or read book Possible Role of the Indian Ocean in the In phase Transition of the Indian to Australian Summer Monsoon written by Renguang Wu and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Spatial Scaling Behaviour of Extreme Precipitation in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model and in Observational Data written by Claudia Daniela Volosciuk and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
