Download or read book Essays on Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Openness in International Trade written by Abelardo Salazar Neaves and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work comprises five chapters that explore in detail issues related to real exchange rate volatility and trade openness. In the case of real exchange rate volatility, we start with the decomposition of this measure to determine the relative contribution of traded and nontraded goods to the variance of the real exchange rate. We obtain evidence in favour of a relevant role for non-traded goods. Our estimation of the real exchange rate volatility is included in the second chapter. Our results, based on a cross-section regression, show that the existing link of openness to real exchange rate volatility is weaker when we control for imposed and natural trade barriers. At the same time we are able to obtain a relationship between inflation volatility and the variation of the real exchange rate. Chapters three and four are related to our real exchange rate volatility model. We decide to obtain a specication for openness that could help us explore in detail the idea of country characteristics aecting trade flows. Our rst approach considers a cross-section estimation to identify the factors that consistently aect trade openness. The second approach considers a more dynamic specication. We are able to establish a link between country characteristics and trade openness. At the same time our results capture interesting changes in the eects of the dependent variables on openness across time. The final chapter takes us back to the analysis of real exchange rate volatility. In this case, we explore which measure is the most appropriate amongst those calculated from series in levels and the ones in first dierences. We conclude that series that do not show less stationary behaviour require longer time series (more observations) in order to display results that close to the reference value.
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness written by Harald Hau and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on International Economics written by Roman David Merga and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This dissertation consists of three independent chapters on International Economics. The first two chapters focus on how and why uncertainty affects international trade. The last chapter focuses on how reductions in trade barriers affect wage inequality. In the first chapter, I show that higher domestic volatility discourages exporters' investments in foreign market access, explaining the lack of involvement in international trade by developing economies. At the cross-country level, I find that country TFP volatility explains 40% of the relationship between trade and GDP per capita. Using Colombian micro-level data, I document that exporters with higher domestic sales volatility export less. New exporters expand relatively less over their life cycle in industries with higher domestic sales volatility. This dampening of the firm-level export expansion path is amplified in products with more variable markups. Motivated by these novel firm-level findings, I develop an international trade model with new exporter dynamics and variable markups that can account for the novel facts at the firm and the cross-country levels. These findings suggest that trade frictions calculated using static trade models reflect the interactions of domestic volatility and exporters' investment decisions to grow into foreign markets. Indeed my quantitative findings show that the volatility differences across countries are equivalent to a 30% higher trade cost in developing economies. These volatility differences account for 40% of the differential trade cost estimated by standard models of international trade. In the second chapter, I use a new time-varying measure of real exchange rate uncertainty (RERU) and find a negative relationship between RERU and international trade at the aggregate level. A one standard deviation increase in RERU is associated with a 5% drop in total trade over GDP. Using Colombian firm-level data, I document three firm-level facts consistent with the existence of a precautionary motive in international trade. When RERU increases, exporters: 1) reduce their export intensity, 2) are more likely to stop exporting, and 3) are less likely to start exporting to new markets. Additionally, I document that this behavior is mostly explained by exporters paying higher interest rates and facing higher shipping lags. These micro-level findings explain the cross-country results and contrast with the predictions from standard sunk cost models used in international trade. I show that incorporating firm-level debt default and international shipping lags into these standard models is enough to reconcile these models with the novel facts. In the new model, an increase in the RERU increases the probability of an exporter ending up in a financially vulnerable situation. To hedge against this risk, exporters respond by increasing markups or quitting the export market, generating a drop in aggregate exports through both the intensive and extensive trade margins. Quantitatively, the extended model predicts that a one standard deviation increase in RERU generates a drop in total exports of around 6%, consistent with the aggregate findings. In the third chapter, we use detailed employer-employee data from Spain that goes from 1987 to 2004 to understand how international trade affects the wage distribution across workers. Using a new instrumental variable approach to disentangle trade openness's effects on the distribution of income and wages, we document that an increase in local trade exposure reduces wage inequality. Furthermore, we show that this result is associated with changes at the within-industry and within-firm levels. At the within-industry level, we show that trade openness reallocates workers towards small firms and low-skilled jobs. While at the within-firm level, we find that small firms increase their labor intensity and employment, while larger firms reduce both in response to changes in trade openness. These changes are consistent with an increase in the relative demand for low-wage and low-skill workers"--Pages ix-xi.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows Some New Evidence written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-05-19 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement written by Ms.Xiangming Li and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although theory suggests that the real exchange rate should depreciate after a credible trade liberalization but could appreciate temporarily with a noncredible one, little empirical evidence exists. Unlike existing studies that use either indirect tests or unreliable openness measures, this paper uses an event study based on carefully documented trade liberalization in 45 countries. The result shows that real exchange rates depreciate after countries open their economies to trade. In countries with multiple liberalization episodes, however, real exchange rates appreciate during early episodes, suggesting that partial or noncredible trade liberalizations are associated with real appreciation.
Download or read book Does Higher Openness Cause More Real Exchange Rate Volatility written by César Calderón and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: "The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" argues that: (a) non-monetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility, and (b) trade and financial openness may have a potential role of mitigating and/or amplifying real and nominal shocks to real exchange rates. The goal of the present paper is to examine the ability of trade and financial openness to exacerbate or mitigate real exchange rate volatility. The authors collected information on the real effective exchange rate, its fundamentals, and (outcome and policy measures of) trade and financial openness for a sample of industrial and developing countries for the period 1975-2005. Using instrumental variables techniques, the analysis finds that: (a) High real exchange rate volatility is the result of highly volatile productivity shocks, and sharp oscillations in monetary and fiscal policy shocks. (b) Countries more integrated with international markets of goods and services tend to display more stable real exchange rate fluctuations. (c) Financial openness seems to amplify the fluctuations in real exchange rates. (d) The composition of trade and capital flows plays a role in explaining the smoothing properties of trade and financial openness. Although the former is mainly driven by manufacturing trade, the latter depends on the share of debt (and equity) in total foreign liabilities. (e) Financial openness would attenuate (magnify) real exchange rate volatility, the greater the share of equity (debt) in foreign liabilities. (f) The composition of flows also matters for explaining the smoothing properties of trade and financial openness in periods of currency crisis."--World Bank web site.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Download or read book Essays in exchange rate volatility and international trade exchange rate volatility and stock returns for the United States and Turkey and political corruption written by Fuat Sekmen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Returns for the U S and Turkey and Political Corruption written by Fuat Sekman and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on International Finance written by Daniel Riera-Crichton and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays in International Trade Exchange Rate Volatility and Asset Market Structure written by Anne Marjaana Mikkola and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange rate Variability and Trade written by Jan Kees Martijn and published by Purdue University Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains essays on the impact of exchange-rate variability on trade policy and trade flows
Download or read book Essays on Exchange Rate Volatility and on Regional Integration written by Shang-Jin Wei and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows written by Mr. Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-09-30 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows was examined by a 1984 IMF study on G-7 countries. Over the past two decades, many developments in the world economy, such as the currency crises in the 1990s and increasing cross-border capital flows, may have exacerbated exchange rate volatility, while others, such as a deepening of the market in foreign exchange hedging instruments, may have reduced the impact of volatility on trade flows. Using recent advances in the economic theories on trade and in statistical methodologies, this paper revisits this important issue by taking into account these new developments and examining their effects on developing and transition economies, as well as on developed countries.
Download or read book Essays on Currency Crises written by Mohammad Karimi Zarkani and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country's currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.
Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
