Download or read book Essays on Global Economic Risk written by Jonathan William Welburn and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic crises (the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, the 2007 global financial crisis, and the 2009 Eurozone crisis) have created a new landscape. These crises elucidate the systemic nature of economic risk, where adverse events appear capable of quickly spreading from one country to the next through a process commonly known as contagion. This dissertation uses an interdisciplinary approach that bridges the fields of operations research, economics, and risk analysis to contribute a novel approach for understanding the processes by which contagion can occur. First, we present a large game-theoretic framework to explain how the dynamics between households, firms, banks, central banks, countries, and financial intergovernmental organizations contribute to crises. Second, we present a more parsimonious model, a borrower-lender game with sequential moves and imperfect information, to discuss the potential for contagion through debt and trade channels while highlighting the role of beliefs. While many in the literature focus on contagion as a direct transmission of economic shocks through debt and trade channels, we find that contagion through trade is unlikely and that the role of lender beliefs can result in apparent contagion. We demonstrate that changes in lender beliefs following revelations of a crisis in one country may lead a lender to be unwilling to lend to another country. This in turn may create a self-fulfilling prophecy where, without access to credit, that country may be less willing and able to repay past debts. Furthermore, we find that our borrower-lender game can explain apparent contagion throughout the Eurozone crisis through deteriorating lender beliefs. While the conventional story is that contagion leads to real propagations through debt (or trade), we find that a real propagation of shocks is not needed.

Download or read book Managing Global Money written by Graham Bird and published by Springer. This book was released on 1988-05-24 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles and papers has been organised under a limited number of specific themes in international financial economics, including balance of payment theory and policy, the activities of the IMF, Special Drawing Rights, the role of the private financial markets, and the international economic order. A unifying theme running through all the essays is that some degree of management of international financial affairs is desirable. The book has a strong policy orientation and should be of interest to students and practitioners of international financial economics alike.

Download or read book Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Economics and Finance written by Jorge Mario Uribe Gil and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled "Momentum Uncertainties", I study the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market. I show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, "Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market", I propose a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, I analyze the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others. In chapter 4: "Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?", I explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, I provide a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks. My contribution to the literature in this essay is mainly the examination of the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is new to the literature and is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, "Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability", I analyze downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity. I make two primary contributions to the literature. First, I estimate tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, I show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis". This essay contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. I focus the analysis carried out in this chapter on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. I documented smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles. -- TDX.

Download or read book Global Economics in Extraordinary Times written by C. Fred Bergsten and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the course of five decades, John Williamson has published an extraordinary number of books, articles, and other pieces on topics ranging from international monetary economics to development policy and bridging scholarly literature and policy debates. This book provides an overview and insight into Williamson's work. It includes contributions from the editors, Stanley Fischer, Edwin M. Truman, Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, Marcus Miller, Avinash Persaud, Stephany Griffith-Jones, Dagmar Hertova, Olivier Jeanne, Shankar Acharya, Jose Antonio Ocampo, and an essay by John Williamson on designing economic policy.

Download or read book Reflections on Progress written by Kemal Dervis and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2016-08-30 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now, more than ever, the world needs growth-oriented and socially inclusive policymaking. Is the world giving up on the promise of ever-greater prosperity for all, on functioning democratic institutions, and on long-term peace? Is the special set of circumstances that led to the recent rapid growth in emerging markets unlikely to be present in the future? Will the second decade of the twenty first century end with “secular stagnation”? Does the rise of authoritarianism, populism, and fanatic nihilism—all experienced over the last few years—threaten to unravel what has been built painstakingly since the catastrophe of World War II? Kemal Dervis addresses these and similar questions in this thought-provoking series of essays written for Project Syndicate from 2011 to 2015. The essays are organized in three sections: global economic interdependence, inequality and the political economy of reform, and the specific challenge of Europe. The common theme is the need for growth-oriented and socially inclusive policymaking in an interdependent world. These kinds of policies offer the potential for another wave of unprecedented human progress aided by breathtaking new technologies. However, a huge and destabilizing disruption is possible if policymaking is not globally cooperative and is not focused on inclusion and greater equity. These essays synthesize the experience and analysis of a scholar and policymaker with national, regional, and international experience at the highest levels. Dervis exhibits a passion for combining strongly held values with political feasibility.

Download or read book The Fantods of Risk written by Ann Blair Kloman and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2008-01-21 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fantods of Risk is a collection of essays from the pages of Risk Management Reports, which the author edited, wrote and published from 1974 through 2007, plus several other published articles. The subject is risk management, a discipline for dealing with uncertainty in our personal and organizational lives. They continue the author’s contrary and challenging approach to managing risk, first started in Risk Management Reports and later in Mumpsimus Revisited, published in 2005.

Download or read book Essays on the Global Economy and World Financial Markets written by Ranga Chand and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2007-2008 financial crises and the Great Recession that followed was a global event that caused great upheaval in the world economy. The crisis, which started in the US with the sub-prime mortgage debacle and the bursting of the housing bubble, triggered a credit crunch that reverberated around the globe and came close to toppling the world's financial infrastructure. The developed countries were particularly hard hit as GDP dropped sharply in all the major Western economies. With demand plunging and job losses mounting, the unemployment rate soared. Compared to their pre-crisis levels, the rate doubled in several countries including Ireland, Spain and the United States and tripled in the Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania.Tens of thousands of businesses, both large and small from all economic sectors, went bankrupt. For households, as property prices tanked millions of homeowners found themselves in negative equity, owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. When Lehman Brothers, the behemoth Wall Street bank, collapsed in September 2008 it was a watershed moment. Credit markets froze and liquidity virtually vanished as banks were reluctant to lend for fear of not being repaid which gummed up the economic machinery. As panic rippled through the system and investors headed for the exits, global stock markets took a battering. By the end of 2008 trillions of dollars in value had been wiped out. This book brings together a series of essays that the author wrote for his corporate clients over the period from 2009 to 2012. The articles analyzed the impact and fallout that the Great Recession had on the global economy and critically examined the efficacy of the policy responses of governments and central banks as they tried to steady the global economic ship. Also included are a number of posts by the author that were published in the Globe and Mail, Canada's premier national newspaper.

Download or read book The Fantods of Risk written by H. Felix Kloman and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fantods of Risk is a collection of essays from the pages of Risk Management Reports, which the author edited, wrote and published from 1974 through 2007, plus several other published articles. The subject is risk management, a discipline for dealing with uncertainty in our personal and organizational lives. They continue the author's contrary and challenging approach to managing risk, first started in Risk Management Reports and later in Mumpsimus Revisited, published in 2005.

Download or read book Essays on the World Economy and Its Financial System written by Brigitte Granville and published by Skyhorse Publishing. This book was released on 2000 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contributors from member organizations of the Tokyo Club discuss the topics "Reflections on the Economies of Three Major Western Players," "Assessment and Responses to Financial Turmoil," "In Search of an Exchange Rate Regime," and "Managing Risks in an Integrating World Financial System." Members of the Tokyo Club include the Brookings Institution (USA), IFO-Institut Fur Wirtschaftsforschung (Germany), Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (France), The Royal Institute of International Affairs (UK), and Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (Japan).

Download or read book Economic Globalization and Governance written by Luís Brites Pereira and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-16 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reflecting the diverse and profound changes triggered by the latest wave of economic globalization, this book highlights various governance responses at national, regional and global levels. The topics covered are wide-ranging and include economic history and development, European integration, exchange rate arrangements, industrial and labor economics, international cooperation and multilateralism, and public choice. The book is divided into three parts: The first part, which contains contributions by Barry Eichengreen and Marc Flandreau, is devoted to economic history. The second part examines open economy macroeconomics with a focus on Europe, including contributions by Jurgen von Hagen and Paul Krugman. The third part presents contributions to international political economy, and related interdisciplinary topics. This Festschrift is written in honor of Jorge Braga de Macedo, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the Nova School of Business and Economics and a distinguished Portuguese academic whose work has an impressive global reach. The contributions, written by a selection of international authors, deal with his oeuvre covering the wide range of topics broached in this book, as his publication record amply attests.

Download or read book Managing International Risk written by Richard J. Herring and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1983-06-30 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The point of departure for this book is the fundamental assertion that managers of international enterprises must cope not only with the hazards that jeopardize the success of ordinary domestic transactions but also with additional perils that are uniquely international. Two of the most important of these are the risk of a breakdown in the rules and practices that govern international trade and investment flows, and country risk - the risk that a sovereign power will interfere with the repatriation of profits, interest payments, principal repayments, or the control of foreign assets. The issues addressed include the prospects for foreign exchange crises, trade wars, international banking crises, and oil shortages; the factors that generate economic, political, and social risk; organizational strategies for mitigating country risk; and the scope for insuring against international risks. The contributors include academic experts from the fields of economics and finance and distinguished practitioners from international corporations, financial institutions, and international agencies.

Download or read book The New Global Economy and the Developing Countries written by Gerald K. Helleiner and published by Aldershot, Hants : E. Elgar. This book was released on 1990 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprises papers and articles originally published between 1981 and 1989.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2016 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-07-13 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth prospects have deteriorated in 2016. Emerging market and developing economies are facing increased external headwinds, including softer growth in advanced economies. Commodity exporters are struggling with particularly challenging conditions, while commodity importers are thus far showing greater resilience. Global growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2017-18 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Focus essays of critical importance for emerging and developing economies: an analysis of the buildup of private debt in emerging and frontier markets and a quantitative study of uncertainties surrounding global growth. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that has, since its inception in 1991, examined international economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. It has also included analytical essays on a wide range of topical macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy challenges faced by these economies. It is published on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges, while the June edition contains shorter analytical essays.

Download or read book Globalization at Risk written by Gary Clyde Hufbauer and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2010-10-19 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: History has declared globalization the winner of the 20th century. Globalization connected the world and created wealth unimaginable in the wake of the Second World War. But the financial crisis of 2008-09 has now placed at risk the liberal economic policies behind globalization. Engulfing the entire world, the crisis gave new fuel to the skeptics of the benefits of economic integration. Policy responses seem to favor anti-globalizers. New regulations could balkanize the global financial system, while widespread protectionist impulses might undo the Doha Round. Issues from climate change to national security may be used as convenient excuses to keep imports out, keep jobs at home, and to clamp down on global capital. Will globalization triumph or perish in the 21st century? What reforms make sense in the post-crisis world?International economists Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Kati Suominen argue that globalization has been a force of great good, one that needs to be actively advanced and honed. Drawing on the latest economic analyses, they reveal the drivers and effects of global finance and trade, lay out the key risks to globalization, and offer a practical policy roadmap for managing the challenges while increasing the gains. Vital reading for anyone in business, finance, foreign affairs, or economics, Globalization at Risk is sure to advance public debate on this defining issue of the 21st century.

Download or read book Three Essays in Financial Globalization written by Mingkwan Thongpruksa and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial globalization has many economic implications for countries. On one hand, it provides protection against national shocks and more efficient global allocation of resources. On the other hand, the financial interlinkage driven by globalization increases the exposure of countries to the financial and real shocks and to the risk of sudden capital reversals. This, in turn, has an impact on countries in various aspects. This dissertation explains the three different roles of financial globalization in individual countries and group of countries. The first essay examines the degree of regional consumption risk sharing of countries in ASEAN+3 and investigates the extent to which financial integration determines the degree of regional consumption risk sharing. There are three main questions that this paper attempts to answer. First, the paper examines whether or not consumption risk sharing exists in ASEAN+3. Second, the paper explores to what directions should they contribute to the degree of regional consumption risk sharing. Finally, this paper examines to what extent ASEAN+3 shares the risk within the region vis-` -vis the rest of the world. According to the a empirical analysis, there is a limited degree of regional and bilateral risk sharing among ASEAN+3 and the degree of such has not changed much during 2000- 2007. However, despite the limited degree of regional risk sharing, countries that invest in ASEAN+3 in moderate proportion, that is, Singapore, Korea, and Thailand, tend to have a higher degree of regional consumption risk sharing than global risk sharing. The second essay addresses the major issues of inflation targeting in Thailand. An empirical study shows there is no evidence that inflation targeting has contributed to economic improvement since Thailand does not perform any better, and even worse in terms of output stability, than non inflation targeting countries. Moreover, the results show that exchange rate channel under the transmission mechanism plays a major role which contradicts the traditional inflation targeting, and thus does not fit Thailand's economy. In addition, SVAR indicates that the disinflation is accompanied by declined and volatility in output, suggesting that the adoption of inflation is not free from expenses. Regarding oil price surge, results obtained from SVAR estimation suggest that any active interest policy is able to help relieve the oil price shock and leaving other variables unaffected while having an impact of shorter duration than does inflation targeting. The third essay presents an analysis of the interrelation between financial institutions and the housing sector in the United States. The evidence presented in the first and the second section of the essay suggests that all economic sectors have increasingly participated in financial investment and have been exposed to a higher degree of volatility in financial investment, combining with changes of regulations, and new available instruments, creating the unsustainable boom in U.S. housing markets during the late 1990s to early 2000s, and later resulted in the subprime crisis. The third section sheds light on the dynamics of house price by the panel error correction formulation. The econometric estimation shows the slow adjustment of housing prices towards long-run equilibrium. The last section examines the spill over effects of housing markets to other economic sectors. The estimated results from VECM indicates the strong and statistically significant of all channels of wealth effect, credit effect, and balance sheet effect.

Download or read book The International Economic Order written by Charles Poor Kindleberger and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Economic Financial Crisis written by and published by . This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collapse in housing prices in the United States in the middle of 2007 led to a rise in defaults in loan repayments and then rapidly to major losses in financial institutions across the world. The financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 took little time to turn into the global economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, leaving no country and no sector untouched and has become the worst contraction since the Depression of the 1930s. The structure of financial innovation that drove growth for close to a quarter of a century has turned out to be a house of cards. Governments and central banks are now rethinking the organization and role of banks. The incentives given to executives of the financial institutions to promote profits at all costs have been put under scrutiny. This volume puts together a collection of essays on a number of aspects of the global economic and financial crisis that were first published in the Economic & Political Weekly in early 2009. Economists and policy makers from across the world cover six areas from a global and Indian perspective. One set of articles discusses the structural causes of the financial crisis. A second focuses on banking and offers solutions for the future. A third examines the role of the US dollar in the unfolding of the crisis. A fourth area of study is the impact on global income distribution. A fifth set of essays takes a long-term view of policy choices confronting the governments of the world. A separate section assesses the downturn in India, the state of the domestic financial sector, the impact on the informal economy and the reforms necessary to prevent another crisis. This book is essential reading for anyone interested in and concerned about the global economic and financial crisis.