Download or read book Essays in Latent Variable and Event Study Econometrics written by Ashwin Gopal Alankar and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Econometrics of Latent Variables written by Dante Amengual and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Econometrics of Latent Variables written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Econometrics of Latent Variables written by Joann Jasiak and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics written by Niels Haldrup and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-06-26 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.

Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Tim Bollerslev and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Engle received the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003 for his work in time series econometrics. This book contains 16 original research contributions by some the leading academic researchers in the fields of time series econometrics, forecasting, volatility modelling, financial econometrics and urban economics, along with historical perspectives related to field of time series econometrics more generally. Engle's Nobel Prize citation focuses on his path-breaking work on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the profound effect that this work has had on the field of financial econometrics. Several of the chapters focus on conditional heteroskedasticity, and develop the ideas of Engle's Nobel Prize winning work. Engle's work has had its most profound effect on the modelling of financial variables and several of the chapters use newly developed time series methods to study the behavior of financial variables. Each of the 16 chapters may be read in isolation, but they all importantly build on and relate to the seminal work by Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.

Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstracts of dissertations available on microfilm or as xerographic reproductions.

Download or read book Three Essays on Health Econometrics written by Bidisha Mandal and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation incorporates several estimation procedures and modeling techniques to investigate important issues in health economics. All of the essays are tied to the application of econometrics in health related topics, but the techniques used in this research can be applied to many issues in agricultural, environmental and development economics.

Download or read book Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao written by Dek Terrell and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Including contributions spanning a variety of theoretical and applied topics in econometrics, this volume of Advances in Econometrics is published in honour of Cheng Hsiao.

Download or read book Mostly Panel Econometrics written by Ovidijus Stauskas and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of five chapters which focus on panel data theory. Four of them analyze explicit panel data models and one chapter deals with time series forecasting model, where external panel data help us estimate unobserved explanatory variables. The broad topics discussed in the thesis include i) simplification of distribution of a statistical test under double asymptotics, ii) elimination of fixed effects and bias correction in dynamic panels, iii) accounting for cross-section dependence and estimation of latent factors when they can be non-stationary and iv) usage of latent factors to improve out-of-sample forecasts and testing competing forecast models. In Chapter I, we re-visit a problem posed by Phillips and Lee (2015, Econometric Reviews). They considered a simple bivariate vector autoregression (VAR), where both series exhibited different degrees of non-stationarity: near unit root and mild explosiveness. While one is interested in testing whether both series are in the lower vicinity of unit root and share the same persistence features, unfortunately, Wald test statistic degenerates under the null. We re-consider this setup in the context of panel data, where we use extra observations from the cross-section to simplify asymptotic distributions in order to obtain chi-square-based inference.??Chapter II looks into very popular factor augmented linear forecast models and tests to evaluate out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. In large macroeconomic datasets, various series tend to co-move together and it is modelled by employing a small number of latent factors (see e.g. Stock and Watson, 1999 and 2002). Instead of using a large number of available variables, researchers reduce the dataset dimension by estimating the driving factors and use those estimates directly. We further explore two tests of equal forecasting accuracy for nested models to investigate if factor augmented model outperforms parsimonious model with known set of variables. Unlike Gonçalves el. al (2017, Journal of Econometrics), where the factors are estimated using Principal Components (PC) under presumably known number of factors, we employ Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimator which is very user friendly and employs a common thematic block structure of large macro datasets. Factors are estimated as block averages to proxy the common underlying information given by factors.??We continue discussing latent factors in Chapter III and Chapter IV. Here we focus on panel data, where unobserved factors model strong cross-section dependence among the panel units and possible endogeneity within the individual time series. Pesaran (2006, Econometrica) suggested solving these issues by augmenting the regression with cross-section averages of the dependent and independent variables. This is CCE estimator. While very simple, pooled version of CCE (CCEP) is asymptotically biased under homogeneous slopes, unless the number of individuals dominates the length of time series in the panel. Moreover, typically the bias is inestimable and analytic correction is not possible. In Chapter III, we analyze the properties of a simple 'pairs' bootstrap algorithm discussed in Kapetanios (2008, Econometrics Journal) in the context of CCE and develop bootstrap-based bias correction procedure. In Chapter IV, we continue the study of Westerlund (2018, Econometrics Journal), where CCE was extended to non-stationary factors of a very general type. In the latter study, however, only CCEP under homogeneous slopes was examined, but we extend the analysis to heterogeneous slopes and explore the properties of the mean group (CCEMG) estimator in order to further model unobserved heterogeneity.??The thesis concludes with Chapter V, where we re-visit at a classical problem in dynamic panels with fixed effects known as Nickel Bias. De-meaning the data to purge individual-specific effects in dynamic panels makes the model errors correlated, and the bias accumulates if the time dimension is large. On the other hand, if we estimate the fixed effects, we run into incidental parameter problem. Bai (2013, Econometrica) considered the so-called Factor Analytical (FA) estimator, which circumvents these issues by estimating the sample variance of individual effects rather than the effects themselves. In the latter study, panel AR(1) model with autoregressive parameter in the stationary region was explored. We extend this to autoregressive coefficient tending to unity and incidental trends, similarly to Moon and Phillips (2004, Econometrica) in order to account for trending and drifting variables.

Download or read book Essays on Stochastic Volatility and Jumps written by Diep Ngoc Duong and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation comprises three essays on financial economics and econometrics. The first essay outlines and expands upon further testing results from Bhardwaj, Corradi and Swanson (BCS: 2008) and Corradi and Swanson (2011). In particular, specification tests in the spirit of the conditional Kolmogorov test of Andrews (1997) that rely on block bootstrap resampling methods are first discussed. We then broaden our discussion from single process specification testing to multiple process model selection by discussing how to construct predictive densities and how to compare the accuracy of predictive densities derived from alternative (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we generalize simulation steps outlined in Cai and Swanson (2011) to multifactor models where the number of latent variables is larger than three. In the second essay, we begin by discussing important developments in volatility modeling, with a focus on time varying and stochastic volatility as well as the "model free" estimation of volatility via the use of so-called realized volatility, and variants thereof called realized measures. In an empirical investigation, we use realized measures to investigate the role of "small" and large" jumps in the realized variation of stock price returns and show that jumps do matter in the relative contribution to the total variation of the process, when examining individual stock returns, as well as market indices. The third essay examines the predictive content of a variety of realized measures of jump power variations, all formed on the basis of power transformations of instantaneous returns. Our prediction involves estimating members of the linear and nonlinear extended Heterogeneous Autoregressive of the Realized Volatility (HAR-RV) class of models, using S & P 500 futures data as well as stocks in the Dow 30, for the period 1993-2009. Our findings suggest that past "large" jump power variations help less in the prediction of future realized volatility, than past "small" jump power variations. Our empirical findings also suggest that past realized signed jump power variations, which have not previously been examined in this literature, are strongly correlated with future volatility.

Download or read book Essays in Applied Econometrics of High Frequency Financial Data written by Ilya Archakov and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter, co-authored with Peter Hansen and Asger Lunde, we suggest a novel approach to modeling and measuring systematic risk in equity markets. We develop a new modeling framework that treats an asset return as a dependent variable in a multiple regression model. The GARCH-type dynamics of conditional variances and correlations between the regression variables naturally imply a temporal variation of regression coefficients (betas). The model incorporates extra information from the realized (co-)variance measures extracted from high frequency data, which helps to better identify the latent covariance process and capture its changes more promptly. The suggested structure is consistent with the broad class of linear factor models in the asset pricing literature. We apply our framework to the famous three-factor Fama-French model at the daily frequency. Throughout the empirical analysis, we consider more than 800 individual stocks as well as style and sectoral exchange traded funds from the U.S. equity market. We document an appreciable cross-sectional and temporal variation of the model-implied risk loadings with the especially strong (though short-lived) distortion around the Financial Crisis episode. In addition, we find a significant heterogeneity in a relative explanatory power of the Fama-French factors across the different sectors of economy and detect a fluctuation of the risk premia estimates over time. The empirical evidence emphasizes the importance of taking into account dynamic aspects of the underlying covariance structure in asset pricing models. In the second chapter, written with Bo Laursen, we extend the popular dynamic Nelson-Siegel framework by introducing time-varying volatilities in the factor dynamics and incorporating the realized measures to improve the identification of the latent volatility state. The new model is able to effectively describe the conditional distribution dynamics of a term structure variable and can still be readily estimated with the Kalman filter. We apply our framework to model the crude oil futures prices. Using more than 150,000,000 transactions for the large panel of contracts we carefully construct the realized volatility measures corresponding to the latent Nelson-Siegel factors, estimate the model at daily frequency and evaluate it by forecasting the conditional density of futures prices. We document that the time-varying volatility specification suggested in our model strongly outperforms the constant volatility benchmark. In addition, the use of realized measures provides moderate, but systematic gains in density forecasting. In the third chapter, I investigate the rate at which information about the daily asset volatility level arrives with the transaction data in the course of the trading day. The contribution of this analysis is three-fold. First, I gauge how fast (after the market opening) the reasonable projection of the new daily volatility level can be constructed. Second, the framework provides a natural experimental field for the comparison of the small sample properties of different types of estimators as well as their (very) short-run forecasting capability. Finally, I outline an adaptive modeling framework for volatility dynamics that attaches time-varying weights to the different predictive signals in response to the changing stochastic environment. In the empirical analysis, I consider a sample of assets from the Dow Jones index. I find that the average precision of the ex-post daily volatility projections made after only 15 minutes of trading (at 9:45a.m. EST) amounts to 65% (in terms of predictive R2) and reaches up to 90% before noon. Moreover, in conjunction with the prior forecast, the first 15 minutes of trading are able to predict about 80% of the ex-post daily volatility. I document that the predictive content of the realized measures that use data at the transaction frequency is strongly superior as compared to the estimators that use sparsely sampled data, but the difference is getting negligible closer to the end of the trading day, as more observations are used to construct a projection. In the final chapter, joint with Peter Hansen, Guillaume Horel and Asger Lunde, we introduce a multivariate estimator of financial volatility that is based on the theory of Markov chains. The Markov chain framework takes advantage of the discreteness of high-frequency returns and suggests a natural decomposition of the observed price process into a martingale and a stationary components. The new estimator is robust to microstructural noise effects and is positive semidefinite by construction. We outline an approach to the estimation of high dimensional covariance matrices. This approach overcomes the curse of dimensionality caused by the tremendous number of observed price transitions (normally, exceeding 10,000 per trading day) that complicates a reliable estimation of the transition probability matrix for the multivariate Markov chain process. We study the finite sample properties of the estimator in a simulation study and apply it to high-frequency commodity prices. We find that the new estimator demonstrates a decent finite sample precision. The empirical estimates are largely in agreement with the benchmarks, but the Markov chain estimator is found to be particularly well with regards to estimating correlations.

Download or read book The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods written by Michael Lewis-Beck and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2004 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring over 900 entries, this resource covers all disciplines within the social sciences with both concise definitions & in-depth essays.

Download or read book Essays in Econometrics written by Willene Rose and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-07-18 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, and its companion volume, present a collection of papers by Willene Rose. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

Download or read book Microeconometrics written by A. Colin Cameron and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-05-09 with total page 1058 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides the most comprehensive treatment to date of microeconometrics, the analysis of individual-level data on the economic behavior of individuals or firms using regression methods for cross section and panel data. The book is oriented to the practitioner. A basic understanding of the linear regression model with matrix algebra is assumed. The text can be used for a microeconometrics course, typically a second-year economics PhD course; for data-oriented applied microeconometrics field courses; and as a reference work for graduate students and applied researchers who wish to fill in gaps in their toolkit. Distinguishing features of the book include emphasis on nonlinear models and robust inference, simulation-based estimation, and problems of complex survey data. The book makes frequent use of numerical examples based on generated data to illustrate the key models and methods. More substantially, it systematically integrates into the text empirical illustrations based on seven large and exceptionally rich data sets.

Download or read book Essays in Applied Econometrics written by David Slichter and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This dissertation develops and applies new techniques for the measurement of causal effects in observational data. The first chapter studies the employment effects of the minimum wage using a novel empirical strategy that can identify treatment effects when more than one control group is available, even if all such control groups are imperfect. Expanding on previous research that analyzes labor market outcomes across neighboring regions that experience differential changes to the minimum wage, I compare employment outcomes in border counties where the minimum wage increases to a set of neighboring counties, a set of neighbor-of- neighboring counties, and so on. The key innovation is to model the ratio of the biases present in each of these comparisons. The model I choose uses the relative similarity of control groups to the treated group on observables as a guide to their relative similarity on unobservables. Crucially, models of this type have a testable implication when there are enough control groups. Using data from the United States, I find that recent minimum wage increases have produced modest or zero disemployment effects for teenagers. The second chapter extends the method developed in the first chapter to the domain of regression discontinuity designs. In particular, I study the effects of party incumbency on margin of victory in United States House of Representatives elections. There are two key findings. First, the selection ratio method developed in the first chapter produces estimates consistent with regression discontinuity design estimates for districts where elections are narrowly decided. Since regression discontinuity designs are widely considered to be credible, I interpret this as evidence in favor of the selection ratio method in a naturalistic setting. Sec- ond, I show that the same method can also be used to recover treatment effects for populations away from the discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design. Incumbency effects appear to be approximately stable across the set of elections decided by fewer than 20 percentage points. The third chapter is concerned with a common research design in economics: instrumental variables. Instrumental variables are widespread in empirical eco- nomics, but their use is plagued by concerns that proposed instruments do not satisfy the validity condition. This chapter develops a framework for testing the validity of instruments with covariates, using the motivating example of proximity to college as an instrument for the effect of college attendance on wages (Card 1995). I focus on the case of a binary instrument for a binary treatment, but the approach can be extended to continuous variables. Because this approach makes it possible to quantify the degree of invalidity, it can often allow for point and set identification of treatment effects even when the instrument is invalid. Applying the approach, I find that the proximity to college instrument is invalid and likely overestimates the returns to college."--Abstract.