Download or read book Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by John Williamson and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 1994 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.
Download or read book Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate written by Mr.Tarhan Feyzioglu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is estimated with the cointegration technique for Finland for the period 1975-95. The estimation produced a reasonable set of equilibrium exchange rates that appreciate with positive shocks to the terms of trade, world real interest rates, and the productivity differential between Finland and its trading partners.
Download or read book Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Mr.Angel J. Ubide and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Download or read book Misalignment of Exchange Rates written by Richard C. Marston and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies written by Lionel Halpern and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-11-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-12 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide substantially different assessments, and asks which methodologies deserve the most weight in such situations. It argues that while it is generally desirable to consider the implications of several different approaches, since different approaches provide different types of perspectives, two of the methodologies seem particularly relevant for identifying threats to macroeconomic stability and growth.
Download or read book A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Mr.Alexei P Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a network model of multilaterally equilibrium exchange rates. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The paper defines the currency demand indicator. On its base, it derives a multilateral exchange rate network, finds its dynamically stationary position, and identifies the multilaterally equilibrium levels of bilateral exchanges rates. Potentially, the model can be developed further to calculate the deviations of the observed bilateral exchange rates from their multilaterally equilibrium levels, which can be interpreted as their over- or undervaluation. For illustration, the model is applied to daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among 130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.
Download or read book Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Enrique Alberola and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.
Download or read book Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies written by Tamim Bayoumi and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments written by Jacob Frenkel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects together the basic documents of an approach to the theory and policy of the balance of payments developed in the 1970s. The approach marked a return to the historical traditions of international monetary theory after some thirty years of departure from them – a departure occasioned by the international collapse of the 1930s, the Keynesian Revolution and a long period of war and post-war reconstruction in which the international monetary system was fragmented by exchange controls, currency inconvertibility and controls over international trade and capital movements.
Download or read book Floating Exchange Rates and the State of World Trade and Payments written by David Bigman and published by Beard Books. This book was released on 2003-03 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes developments in the international monetary system since 1973, with anew added epilogue.
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition written by Balázs Égert and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model. With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions. This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments.
Download or read book The Exchange Rate System written by John Williamson and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now available directly from: IIE 11 Dupont Circle, NW Washington, DC 20036 Tel: (202) 328-9000 This book examines the system of flexible exchange rates, estimating misalignments of major currencies and analyzing costs and benefits of volatility and deviations from equilibrium. It considers target zones, reference rates, and other alternatives for stabilizing the system.
Download or read book A Fair Exchange Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Tamim Bayoumi and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-12-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a theory-based model of equilibrium exchange rates incorporating factors that have been found to matter empirically. The model provides insights into how variables should be measured and what are appropriate cross-country restrictions. We estimate this model using a panel of 12 industrial countries. The model fits the data relatively well, implying relatively fast adjustment to equilibrium and outperforming a random walk at longer horizons. Furthermore, we find that the rate of adjustment depends on the distance from equilibrium, suggesting that part of the explanation for slow adjustment is inaccurate measures of equilibrium.
Download or read book FEERs and Uncertainty written by Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-07-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEERs) impose internal and external balance, and so appeal to fundamental notions of equilibrium from a macroeconomic perspective. However, the need to estimate internal and external imbalances creates uncertainty in the approach. Parameters must be estimated, and equilibrium balances must be gauged using judgement. Hence it makes sense to consider the FEER as a statistical estimate rather than a fixed number, and to calculate confidence intervals for the FEER. This paper calculates such confidence intervals with data for Canada, under a variety of assumptions. The estimated confidence intervals are quite wide, principally because of uncertainty about price elasticities in the underlying trade equations.
