Download or read book Efficient High dimensional Importance Sampling in Mixture Frameworks written by Tore Selland Kleppe and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Importance Sampling in the Heath Jarrow Morton Framework written by International Business Machines Corporation. Research Division and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: "This paper develops a variance reduction technique for pricing derivatives in high-dimensional multifactor models, with particular emphasis on term structure models formulated in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. A premise of this work is that the largest gains in simulation efficiency come from taking advantage of the structure of both the cashflows of a security and the model in which it is priced; for this to be feasible in practice requires that the identification and use of relevant structure be automated. We exploit model and payoff structure through a combination of importance sampling and stratified sampling. The importance sampling applies a change of drift to the underlying factors; we select the drift by first solving an optimization problem. We then identify a particularly effective direction for stratified sampling (which may be thought of as an approximate numerical integration) by solving an eigenvector problem. Examples illustrate that the combination of the methods can produce enormous variance reduction even in high-dimensional multifactor models. The method introduces some computational overhead in solving the optimization and eigenvector problems; to address this we propose and evaluate approximate solution procedures. These further enhance the applicability of the method."

Download or read book Particle Efficient Importance Sampling written by Marcel Scharth and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient importance sampling (EIS) method is a general principle for the numerical evaluation of high-dimensional integrals that uses the sequential structure of target integrands to build variance minimising importance samplers. Despite a number of successful applications in high dimensions, it is well known that importance sampling strategies are subject to an exponential growth in variance as the dimension of the integration increases. We solve this problem by recognising that the EIS framework has an offline sequential Monte Carlo interpretation. The particle EIS method is based on non-standard resampling weights that take into account the look-ahead construction of the importance sampler. We apply the method for a range of univariate and bivariate stochastic volatility specifications. We also develop a new application of the EIS approach to state space models with Student's t state innovations. Our results show that the particle EIS method strongly outperforms both the standard EIS method and particle filters for likelihood evaluation in high dimensions. Moreover, the ratio between the variances of the particle EIS and particle filter methods remains stable as the time series dimension increases. We illustrate the efficiency of the method for Bayesian inference using the particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings and importance sampling squared algorithms.

Download or read book Importance Sampling Methods with Multiple Sampling Distributions written by Wentao Li and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The complexity of integrands in modern scientific, industrial and financial problems increases rapidly with the development of data collection technologies. Monte Carlo method is widely used for complicated integration. In Monte Carlo integration, it is a natural and flexible method to consider multiple simulation mechanisms instead of one to address different aspects of the integrand. New methods are needed to combine the multiple mechanisms efficiently. Monte Carlo integration methods are reviewed, with focus on importance sampling methods (IS) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC). The former is commonly used for low-dimension problems. The latter is a variation of IS, which has been developed to be a new branch itself in the recent two decades, and promising for high- dimension problems with sequential nature. For IS, techniques for combining multiple proposal distributions have been well developed, including Owen and Zhou (2000) and Tan (2004). Important implementation issues are needed to be resolved, including the allocation of sample budgets and the selection of proposals. A two-stage procedure is proposed to optimize the sample allocation, and although little theoretical investigation has been done for such a two-stage procedure in literatures, its optimality among current approaches is theoretically justified. The choice of the first stage sample size is also discussed through investigating the high order performance of estimators. About the construction of proposals, suggestions are given to approximate the perfect case. For SMC, only the plain vanilla combination of multiple proposals has been used in literatures. A novel SMC filtering scheme is proposed to combine the multiple proposals through the control variates approach in Tan (2004). Control variates are used in both resampling and estimation. The new algorithm is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the direct use of multiple proposals and control variates. The guidance for selecting multiple proposals and control variates is also given. Numerical studies of the AR(1) model observed with noise and the stochastic volatility model with AR(1) dynamics show that the new algorithm can significantly improve over the bootstrap filter and auxiliary particle filter.

Download or read book Simulation based Econometric Methods written by Christian Gouriéroux and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 1997-01-09 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new generation of statistical econometrics. After linear models leading to analytical expressions for estimators, and non-linear models using numerical optimization algorithms, the availability of high- speed computing has enabled econometricians to consider econometric models without simple analytical expressions. The previous difficulties presented by the presence of integrals of large dimensions in the probability density functions or in the moments can be circumvented by a simulation-based approach. After a brief survey of classical parametric and semi-parametric non-linear estimation methods and a description of problems in which criterion functions contain integrals, the authors present a general form of the model where it is possible to simulate the observations. They then move to calibration problems and the simulated analogue of the method of moments, before considering simulated versions of maximum likelihood, pseudo-maximum likelihood, or non-linear least squares. The general principle of indirect inference is presented and is then applied to limited dependent variable models and to financial series.

Download or read book Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R written by Christian Robert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers the main tools used in statistical simulation from a programmer’s point of view, explaining the R implementation of each simulation technique and providing the output for better understanding and comparison.

Download or read book Advances in Dynamics of Vehicles on Roads and Tracks III written by Wei Huang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 997 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book High Dimensional Probability written by Roman Vershynin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An integrated package of powerful probabilistic tools and key applications in modern mathematical data science.

Download or read book Independent Random Sampling Methods written by Luca Martino and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-03-31 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book systematically addresses the design and analysis of efficient techniques for independent random sampling. Both general-purpose approaches, which can be used to generate samples from arbitrary probability distributions, and tailored techniques, designed to efficiently address common real-world practical problems, are introduced and discussed in detail. In turn, the monograph presents fundamental results and methodologies in the field, elaborating and developing them into the latest techniques. The theory and methods are illustrated with a varied collection of examples, which are discussed in detail in the text and supplemented with ready-to-run computer code. The main problem addressed in the book is how to generate independent random samples from an arbitrary probability distribution with the weakest possible constraints or assumptions in a form suitable for practical implementation. The authors review the fundamental results and methods in the field, address the latest methods, and emphasize the links and interplay between ostensibly diverse techniques.

Download or read book Stochastic Yield Analysis of Rare Failure Events in High Dimensional Variation Space written by Xiao Shi and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As semiconductor industry kept shrinking the feature size to nanometer scale, circuit reliability has become an area of growing concern due to the uncertainty introduced by process variations. For highly-replicated standard cells, the failure event for each individual component must be extremely rare in order to maintain sufficiently high yield rate. Existing yield analysis approaches works fine at low dimension, but less effective either when there are a large amount of circuit parameters, or when the failure samples are distributed in multiple regions. In this thesis, four novel high sigma analysis approaches have been proposed. First, we propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) algorithm. AIS has several iterations of sampling region adjustments, while existing methods pre-decide a static sampling distribution. At each iteration, AIS generates samples from current proposed distribution. Next, AIS carefully assigns weight to each sample based on its tilted occurrence probability between failure region and current failure region distribution. Then we design two adaptive frameworks based on Resampling and population Metropolis-Hastings (MH) to iteratively search for failure regions. Second, we develop an Adaptive Clustering and Sampling (ACS) method to estimate the failure rate of high-dimensional and multi-failure-region circuit cases. The basic idea of the algorithm is to cluster failure samples and build global sampling distribution at each iteration. Specifically, in clustering step, we propose a multi-cone clustering method, which partitions the parametric space and clusters failure samples. Then global sampling distribution is constructed from a set of weighted Gaussian distributions. Next, we calculate importance weight for each sample based on the discrepancy between sampling distribution and target distribution. Failure probability is updated at the end of each iteration. This clustering and sampling procedure proceeds iteratively until all the failure regions are covered. Moreover, two meta-model based approaches are proposed for high sigma analysis. The Low-Rank Tensor Approximation (LRTA) formulate the meta-model in tensor space by representing a multi-way tensor into a finite sum of rank-one tensor. The polynomial degree of our LRTA model grows linearly with circuit dimension, which makes it especially promising for high-dimensional circuit problems. Then we solve our LRTA model efficiently with a robust greedy algorithm, and calibrate iteratively with an adaptive sampling method. The meta-model based importance sampling (MIS) method utilizes Gaussian Process meta-model to construct quasi-optimal importance sampling distribution, and performs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to generate new samples from the proposed distribution. By updating our global Importance Sampling estimator in an iterated framework, MIS leads to better efficiency and higher accuracy than traditional importance sampling methods. Experiment results validate that the proposed approaches are 3 orders faster than Monte Carlo, and more accurate than both academia solutions such as importance sampling and classification based methods, and industrial solutions such as mixture IS used by Intel.

Download or read book Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-10-21 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation that have arisen over the past 30 years and presents a sound foundation for problem solving Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the state-of-the-art theory, methods and applications that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as importance (re-)sampling, and the transform likelihood ratio method, the score function method for sensitivity analysis, the stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization, the cross-entropy method for rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization, and application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems. An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, as well as a generous sampling of applied examples. The Third Edition features a new chapter on the highly versatile splitting method, with applications to rare-event estimation, counting, sampling, and optimization. A second new chapter introduces the stochastic enumeration method, which is a new fast sequential Monte Carlo method for tree search. In addition, the Third Edition features new material on: • Random number generation, including multiple-recursive generators and the Mersenne Twister • Simulation of Gaussian processes, Brownian motion, and diffusion processes • Multilevel Monte Carlo method • New enhancements of the cross-entropy (CE) method, including the “improved” CE method, which uses sampling from the zero-variance distribution to find the optimal importance sampling parameters • Over 100 algorithms in modern pseudo code with flow control • Over 25 new exercises Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in stochastic simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method. Reuven Y. Rubinstein, DSc, was Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. He served as a consultant at numerous large-scale organizations, such as IBM, Motorola, and NEC. The author of over 100 articles and six books, Dr. Rubinstein was also the inventor of the popular score-function method in simulation analysis and generic cross-entropy methods for combinatorial optimization and counting. Dirk P. Kroese, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Physics of The University of Queensland, Australia. He has published over 100 articles and four books in a wide range of areas in applied probability and statistics, including Monte Carlo methods, cross-entropy, randomized algorithms, tele-traffic c theory, reliability, computational statistics, applied probability, and stochastic modeling.

Download or read book Efficient Importance Sampling for ML Estimation of SCD Models written by Luc Bauwens and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Simulation Algorithms and Analysis written by Søren Asmussen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-07-14 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sampling-based computational methods have become a fundamental part of the numerical toolset of practitioners and researchers across an enormous number of different applied domains and academic disciplines. This book provides a broad treatment of such sampling-based methods, as well as accompanying mathematical analysis of the convergence properties of the methods discussed. The reach of the ideas is illustrated by discussing a wide range of applications and the models that have found wide usage. The first half of the book focuses on general methods; the second half discusses model-specific algorithms. Exercises and illustrations are included.

Download or read book Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods written by Gerardo Rubino and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-03-18 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.

Download or read book On Large Deviations and Design of Efficient Importance Sampling Algorithms written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice written by Arnaud Doucet and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.

Download or read book Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo written by Steve Brooks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-05-10 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since their popularization in the 1990s, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionized statistical computing and have had an especially profound impact on the practice of Bayesian statistics. Furthermore, MCMC methods have enabled the development and use of intricate models in an astonishing array of disciplines as diverse as fisherie