Download or read book Effects of Oil on Macroeconomic Activity in Developing Countries written by Van Hoa Tran and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Download or read book The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Download or read book The Political Economy of International Oil and the Underdeveloped Countries written by Michael Tanzer and published by Boston : Beacon Press. This book was released on 1969 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monograph on economic implications for developing countries of the activities of multinational enterprises of the petroleum industry, with particular reference to Iraq, India, Mexico, China and parts of Latin America - covers political aspects, trade problems, monopolys, ownership and location of industry, financial aspects, transportation costs and prices, industrial policy in respect of oil, the role of USA, the role of USSR, etc. References and statistical tables.

Download or read book Oil Price Uncertainty written by Apostolos Serletis and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2012 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.

Download or read book Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-05 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Download or read book Social and Economic Effects of Petroleum Development in Non OPEC Developing Countries written by Jon B. McLin and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Impacts of Oil Price Fluctuations on Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Activity written by Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis focuses on the relationships between oil prices fluctuations and trade-related variables. There are 6 chapters. The introductory chapter sets the scene while chapter 2 discusses the theory for economics of non-renewable resources. This is followed by three substantive chapters which focus on three different aspects of the thesis: the oil price-RCA relationship, the oil price-exchange rate relationship and the oil price-output growth relationship. Chapter 6 concludes the thesis. Chapter 3 quantifies the effects of oil price fluctuations on revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 36 manufacturing commodities of 167 countries from 1990 to 2005. Using Zellner's (1962) seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) model, the chapter finds that oil price fluctuations negatively affect middle-income economies and net oil-exporting countries' RCA more than high-income economies and net oil-importing countries. Chapter 4 explores the long run effects of real oil price and real interest rate differential on real exchange rate for a monthly panel of 8 countries from 1980 to 2008. Using the mean group estimator, the chapter finds no statistically significant relationship between real oil price and real exchange rate for oil-importing and oil- exporting countries. However, when using the pooled mean group estimator, the chapter finds a positive and statistically significant impact of real oil price on real exchange rate for five net oil importing countries, implying that increase in oil price leads to real exchange rate depreciation . . Chapter 5 investigates the asymmetric effects of oil pnce shocks on real economic activities in Malaysia from 1991 to 2007. Using an unrestricted Vector Auto Regressive (V AR) method, mixed results are obtained. Evidence of a symmetric relationship between oil prices and economic activities is obtained from the impulse response function (IRFs). However, the variance decomposition analyses VAR suggest that oil prices have different impacts on economic activities when they increase than when they fall.

Download or read book Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...

Download or read book Trade Linkages and Macroeconomic Effects of the Price of Oil written by Iikka Korhonen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Oil Market Developments and Issues written by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-01-03 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The discussion in this paper of the causes and consequences of recent oil price increases, and the appropriate policy response, is framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterize the oil market. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. The difficulty of predicting long-run supply and demand creates uncertainty about future prices. Further, even current supply and demand data are lacking, which results in additional uncertainty. These features of uncertainty and volatility of prices make it difficult to reach simple conclusions about how oil producers and consumers should respond to price changes.

Download or read book Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low Income Developing Countries written by Nina Biljanovska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-23 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the transmission of business cycle fluctuations and credit conditions from advanced and emerging market economies to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs), using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and related countryspecific error correction models. We compile a dataset on bank credit, exports, output, and real effective exchange rate for 24 LIDCs and 16 Advanced and Emerging Markets, accounting for 74 percent of World GDP, from 1990Q1 to 2013Q4. Impulse response analyses show that business cycles in oil- and commodity-exporting, as well as frontier LIDCs are more synchronized with those in emerging market economies. Furthermore, credit conditions in the US seem to have a significant impact on exports and real economic activity in LIDCs, while these variables are basically unresponsive to credit availability in emerging markets or economies in other parts of the world.

Download or read book Oil Money And The Mexican Economy written by Francisco Carrada-Bravo and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-28 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the mid-1970s unemployment, inflation and monetary disturbances were dominant forces in the Mexican economy. Beginning in late 1977, however the situation drastically changed. The discovery of enormous oil fields, combined with a structural and social factors, vastly improved the nation's prospects and in terms of business cycles, its economy moved from trough to peak. In assessing these changes, Dr Carrada constructs a macro-econometric model- based on the monetary approach to the balance of payments- to deal in the short-run with structural features of Mexico's economy. He then applied his model to a variety of scenarios in order to explore the short-term dynamic impact of oil revenues on real incomes, prices, inflation, money, supply and balance of payments. Incorporating theoretical and empirical evidence of hoe expectations affect levels of economic activity and inflation, Dr Carrada's model is applicable also to the conditions of other oil-rich developing countries

Download or read book The Impact of Oil Fiscal Regimes in Developing Countries written by Yayan Satyakti and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 1 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of fiscal regime on oil prices movement in oil developing countries. The oil price movement may effect on fiscal regime decision of oil exporting countries to adjust crude oil revenue. Changing of fiscal regime in oil exporting countries led to stabilize their macroeconomic volatility such as crude oil revenue and their budget balance tax gap. The speed of adjustment between government response of oil and gas fiscal regime and firm responses. We estimated behavior pattern and decision of oil and gas national and multi-national companies across the world using structural behavior equation across 100 oil and gas firms within field level analysis across developing countries. We employed Wood Mackenzie database to measure the possibilities of fiscal regime through micro and macro transmission structure. Micro transmission measured the impact of oil price movement on cash flow project on field activity across oil and gas firms. We estimate this cash flow by stochastic price movement by distinguished into spot price. This stochastic movement of each field in each country to determined future contract by long term risk premium and short term risk premium affected of world crude oil price in the future. In macro transmission we offer Bayesian Panel Markov Switching to perform the speed of adjustment of micro and macro transmission on oil price movement and vice versa. To best our knowledge this approach has not been conducted by previous studies which reconcile both micro level and macro level of oil industrial behavior. We found that speed of adjustment response of fiscal regime in firm level faster than government response of fiscal regime. We mapped level of anticipated risk of in each country that conclude that oil price shock affected in long term contract.