Download or read book Effects of Monetary Policy on International Trade in Ethiopia written by Gediyon Bekele Moliso and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-10-25 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic Paper from the year 2021 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: A, , language: English, abstract: This study examined the effect of monetary policies on Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in Ethiopia between 1989 to 2019.International trade was captured using Total Trade (proxy of international trade) while the independent variables that described the various macroeconomic policies in Ethiopia were money supply, exchange rate, real lending rate and inflation rate. Time series data on the variables of the study was gotten from Annual reports of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) from 1989-2019. The secondary data was analyzed using E-views 9.0 software. A model was formulated for the study. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test showed that the variables in the study were stable at both levels and at first difference. The regression of the independent variables with Total Trade (proxy of international trade) showed the existence of a long run relationship. Using the Autoregressive Distribute Model (ARDL), the empirical results money supply exerts a significant positive effect on Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in the long run while real lending rate and inflation rate exerts a significant negative effect on Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in the long run and Total Trade (proxy of international trade) one period lag of the variable significantly affects the Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in the short run. LagTT or D(LTT(-1)), a one percent increase in expectation push Total Trade (proxy of international trade) by 51% in short run. This result is similar to the theory of adaptive expectations, they states that individuals will form future expectations based on past events. The study thus concluded that the monetary policy channels through which Total Trade (proxy of international trade) in Ethiopia can be influenced are money supply, lending rate and inflation rate. The study testes all the diagnostic test like serial correlation, Normality, heteroschedasticity and stability. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a 75% of the variation in the Total Trade (proxy of international trade) from its equilibrium level is corrected within a year.

Download or read book The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-24 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ethiopia has recorded annual average GDP growth of about ten percent in the last decade, driven by public investments in agriculture and infrastructure. The poverty rate has fallen from 44 percent in 2000 to 23.5 percent in 2015/16. In 2016/17 GDP growth is estimated at 9 percent, as agriculture rebounded from severe drought conditions in 2015/16. Industrial activity expanded, with continued investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. The current account deficit declined in 2016/17 to 8.2 percent of GDP. Over the medium term, growth is expected to remain about 8 percent, supported by sustained expansion in exports and investment.

Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-21 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.

Download or read book Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community written by Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.

Download or read book Effects of Monetary Policy on Private Investments in Ethiopia written by Gediyon Bekele Moliso and published by . This book was released on 2021-07-15 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Download or read book Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-03 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Download or read book A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis written by Marc Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Download or read book World Development Report 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

Download or read book Exchange Rates and Trade written by Mr.Daniel Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-15 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity of trade volumes are largely stable over time. Economic slack and financial conditions affect the relationship, but there is limited evidence that participation in global value chains has significantly changed the exchange rate–trade relationship over time.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy written by Fantu Cheru and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-10 with total page 1017 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From a war-torn and famine-plagued country at the beginning of the 1990s, Ethiopia is today emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Growth in Ethiopia has surpassed that of every other sub-Saharan country over the past decade and is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to exceed 8 percent over the next two years. The government has set its eyes on transforming the country into a middle-income country by 2025, and into a leading manufacturing hub in Africa. The Oxford Handbook of the Ethiopian Economy studies this country's unique model of development, where the state plays a central role, and where a successful industrialization drive has challenged the long-held erroneous assumption that industrial policy will never work in poor African countries. While much of the volume is focused on post-1991 economic development policy and strategy, the analysis is set against the background of the long history of Ethiopia, and more specifically on the Imperial period that ended in 1974, the socialist development experiment of the Derg regime between 1974 and 1991, and the policies and strategies of the current EPRDF government that assumed power in 1991. Including a range of contributions from both academic and professional standpoints, this volume is a key reference work on the economy of Ethiopia.

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Download or read book Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects 2007 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."