Download or read book Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub Saharan Africa written by Laurent Kemoe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-15 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence on the exchange rate passthrough to domestic inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using both bilateral US dollar exchange rate and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), and monthly data. We find that depreciations cause sizable increases in domestic inflation. The passthrough in SSA is higher than in other regions and its magnitude depends on the exchange rate regime, type of exchange rate (bilateral versus NEER), natural resource endowment and domestic market competitiveness. The passthrough is found to be disproportionately larger and more persistent for large depreciation shocks, and for exchange rate changes that are more persistent. We also find evidence of asymmetry, with passthrough eight times stronger during depreciations than appreciations. Additional findings suggest that improved monetary policy effectiveness is an important driver of our observed declining estimates of exchange rate passthrough over time, supporting the long-standing view that strengthening monetary policy frameworks and credibility helps mitigate the impact of depreciations on inflation.
Download or read book Inflation in African Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-10-19 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the mid-1970s the annual inflation rate in Africa has averaged more than 15 percent, with many countries experiencing rates of 20 percent or more. Inflation rates of this magnitude have significant adverse effects on the financial sectors of African countries, particularly in the context of fixed nominal interest rates. Econometric analysis points strongly to monetary expansion as a major cause of inflation in African countries generally. Exchange rate depreciation is also associated with higher inflation, although in some countries the domestic currency was depreciated to offset the effects of recent inflation, rather than being a cause of inflation.
Download or read book Africa s Rising Inflation written by Ajay Chhibber and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1991 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there a link between devaluation and high inflation? It depends on accompanying monetary and fiscal policies and the presence of parallel markets. An open capital account would curtail fiscal profligacy and provide price stability without jeopardizing growth.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.
Download or read book Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub Saharan Africa written by Stella Kaendera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-15 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rates of sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial crisis. In particular, it analyzes the reasons behind the differences in the magnitude and volatility of the exchange rates among countries. To this end, it takes a sample of seven countries, four members of the East African Community (EAC) (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda), and three others, which experienced large exchange rate losses at the onset of the crisis: Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. First, it analyzes the movements of the exchange rates with respect to the U.S. dollar and two other major currencies. Second, it tries to link the magnitude of their movements to key factors, relating to the external environment and the countries’ internal policies.
Download or read book Black Markets for Foreign Exchange Real Exchange Rates and Inflation written by Brian Pinto and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1988 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation could rise permanently and substantially as a result of unifying official and black market exchange rates, even if real government spending remains constant.
Download or read book Exchange Rate and Foreign Interest Rate Linkages for Sub Saharan Africa Floaters written by Mr.Alun H. Thomas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper considers the determinants of exchange rate movements among sub-Saharan countries that have flexible exchange rate regimes. The determinants are based on the law of one price and interest parity conditions. Results indicate that the exchange rates have responded significantly to changes in the US Treasury bill rate and to the EMBI spread in recent years. The effects are more important for countries with open capital accounts. On the other hand the paper does not provide any support for the interest rate parity theory because domestic interest rates have no bearing on exchange rate movements.
Download or read book Monetary Growth and Exchange Rate Depreciation As Causes of Inflation in African Countries written by Mr.Elie Canetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-07-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relative importance of monetary growth and exchange rate depreciation as causes of inflation in a sample of 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. Causality tests and impulse response functions derived from vector autoregression (VAR) analysis suggest that both monetary expansion and exchange rate adjustments cause inflation in a number of these countries. However, the failure of the tests to attribute the bulk of the variance in inflation in most of the countries to either variable suggests either a problem with the statistical technique or that some other factor--perhaps structural bottlenecks or a measure of overall macroeconomic policy stance incorporating both monetary and exchange rate policy--may be even more important as a determinant of inflation in African countries.
Download or read book Dollarization in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Mauro Mecagni and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-15 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dollarization—the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account—is a notable feature of financial development under macroeconomically fragile conditions. It has emerged as a key factor explaining vulnerabilities and currency crises, which have long been observed in Latin America, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe. Dollarization is also present, prominently, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it remains significant and persistent at over 30 percent rates for both bank loans and deposits—although it has not increased significantly since 2001. However, progress in reducing dollarization has lagged behind other regions and, in this regard, it is legitimate to ask whether this phenomenon is an important concern in SSA. This study fills a gap in the literature by analyzing these issues with specific reference to the SSA region on the basis of the evidence for the past decade.
Download or read book On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub Saharan Africa written by Anh D. M. Nguyen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-05 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Pass Through in Sub Saharan African Economies and its Determinants written by Mr.Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices and its determinants in sub-Saharan African countries. It finds that the pass-through is incomplete. The pass-through is larger following a depreciation than after an appreciation of the local currency. The average elasticity is estimated at about 0.4. It is lower in countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes and in countries with a higher income. A low inflation environment, a prudent monetary policy, and a sustainable fiscal policy are associated with a lower pass-through. The degree of pass-through has declined in the SSA region since the mid-1990s following marked improvements in macroeconomic and political environments.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Liberalization in Selected Sub Saharan African Countries Successes Failures and Lessons written by Mr.Nils Øyvind Mæhle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries liberalized their economies in the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper reviews the foreign exchange regime reforms in selected SSA, and their associated macroeconomic policies and economic performance during and after these reforms were undertaken. Before liberalization, most of the reviewed countries were characterized by extensive foreign exchange rationing, sizeable black market premiums, and declining per capita real income. Today, the countries that successfully reformed look markedly different. Rationing and parallel market spreads are a distant memory, and per capita income has increased sharply.
Download or read book Food Inflation in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Emre Alper and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes food inflation trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2016 using two novel datasets of disaggregated CPI baskets. Average food inflation is higher, more volatile, and similarly persistent as non-food non-fuel (NF/NF) inflation, especially in low-income countries (LICs) in SSA. We find evidence that food inflation became less persistent from 2009 onwards, related to recent improvements in monetary policy frameworks. We also find that high food prices are driven mainly by non-tradable food in SSA and there is incomplete pass-through from world food and fuel prices and exchange rates to domestic food prices. Taken together, these finding suggest that central banks in low-income countries with high and persistent food inflation should continue to pay attention to headline inflation to anchor inflation expectations. Other policy levers include reducing tariffs and improving storage and transport infrastructure to reduce food pressures.
Download or read book Alternative Exchange Rate Strategies and Fiscal Performance in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mrs.Stefania Bazzoni and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-08-01 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal performance in 28 sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-91 period with movements in the exchange rates, the terms of trade, and other macroeconomic aggregates. It finds that the tax base in most of these countries is heavily dependent on imports and import substitutes. Consequently, an overvaluation of the exchange rate in countries which adopted a fixed exchange rate strategy undermines the tax base and results in a widening of the fiscal deficit when the purpose of the strategy is to restore the real exchange rate to its equilibrium through fiscal contraction. Those countries which pursued a variable exchange rate strategy failed in attaining price stability, but exchange rate adjustment was critical in contributing to other macroeconomic objectives, particularly fiscal balance, competitiveness, and growth.
Download or read book De Jure Versus de Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are 22 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. Some target the money supply or the inflation rate; others practice "managed floating." Statistical analysis on monthly data for the past decade reveals that in most cases these exchange rate regimes can be approximated surprisingly well by a soft peg to a basket dominated by the US dollar. The weight on the dollar appears to have fallen somewhat across the continent in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Replicating the model with weekly data for The Gambia suggests that the focus on the dollar might be even more pronounced at higher data frequencies. While there might be strong arguments in favor of limiting exchange rate volatility in SSA countries, soft-pegging to the dollar does not appear to be the best fit for them, given the currency structure of their external trade and finance. The paper concludes by discussing some policy options for SSA countries with flexible exchange rates, in the context of an illustrative recent country case.
Download or read book The Supply Response to Exchange Rate Reform in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mustapha Rouis and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1994 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Unbearable Costs When Is Inflation Impeding Job Creation Evidence from Sub Saharan Africa written by Ibrahima Camara and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covid-19 and war-induced commodity price fluctuations, and broadening price pressures have led to a surge in inflation in many sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. To adjust to increasing costs, firms have resorted to several measures including shuttering offices, reducing businesses, laying off, and freezing hiring, thus putting at risk job creation and raising concerns of youth unemployment. This paper explores the effects of inflation on private employment growth in SSA using a large firm -level dataset from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. We find a non-linear relationship between inflation and job creation in SSA, with job creation being negatively correlated with inflation rate when the latter is above 14 percent. This finding holds regardless of the sector of activities of firms and the exchange rate regime. In addition, the paper finds some differential effects based on the type of products. An increase in fuel prices tends to be more detrimental to job creation than food prices. The study also provides evidence that the state of implementation of structural reforms matters. The results show that inflation reduces job opportunities mostly in countries with bad or no structural reforms.
