Download or read book Economic Forecasting and Policy written by N. Carnot and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by N. Carnot and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-08-12 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2021 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2019 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-12-10 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Download or read book Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts written by Richard W. Katz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting written by Robert Evans and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-01-22 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.
Download or read book Fortune Tellers written by Walter A Friedman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Download or read book Forecasting in Business and Economics written by C. W. J. Granger and published by Academic Press Incorporated. This book was released on 1989-04-28 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes the major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This book focuses on the forecasting of economic data and covers a range of topics, including the description of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; nonstationary and nonlinear models; and more.
