Download or read book Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera written by Andrea Bevilacqua and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.
Download or read book Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management written by Nicolas R. Dalezios and published by IWA Publishing. This book was released on 2017-02-15 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the beginning of 21st century, there has been an awareness of risk in the environment along with a growing concern for the continuing potential damage caused by hazards. In order to ensure environmental sustainability, a better understanding of natural disasters and their impacts is essential. It has been recognized that a holistic and integrated approach to environmental hazards needs to be attempted using common methodologies, such as risk analysis, which involves risk management and risk assessment. Indeed, risk management means reducing the threats posed by known hazards, whereas at the same time accepting unmanageable risks and maximizing any related benefits. The risk management framework involves evaluating the importance of a risk, either quantitatively or qualitatively. Risk assessment comprises three steps, namely risk identification (data base, event monitoring, statistical inference), risk estimation (magnitude, frequency, economic costs) and risk evaluation (cost-benefit analysis). Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, risk governance, i.e. the need for a feedback of all the risk assessment undertakings. There is currently a lack of such feedback which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards. This book emphasises methodological approaches and procedures of the three main components in the study of environmental hazards, namely forecasting - nowcasting (before), monitoring (during) and assessment (after), based on geoinformatic technologies and data and simulation through examples and case studies. These are considered within the risk management framework and, in particular, within the three components of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This approach is a contemporary and innovative procedure and constitutes current research in the field of environmental hazards. Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management covers hydrological hazards (floods, droughts, storms, hail, desertification), biophysical hazards (frost, heat waves, epidemics, forest fires), geological hazards (landslides, snow avalanches), tectonic hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes), and technological hazards. This book provides a text and a resource on environmental hazards for senior undergraduate students, graduate students on all courses related to environmental hazards and risk assessment and management. It is a valuable handbook for researchers and professionals of environmental science, environmental economics and management, and engineering. Editor: Nicolas R. Dalezios, University of Thessaly, Greece
Download or read book Volcanic Hazard Assessment at the Restless Campi Flegrei Caldera written by Giovanni Orsi and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose Unrest Precursors and Timing written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.
Download or read book Volcanic Hazards Assessment and Zonation at the Resurgent Campi Flegrei Caldera and Their Effects on Man and Environment written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Field Data Models and Uncertainty in Hazard Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents and Lahars Global Perspectives written by Pablo Tierz and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Volcanic Hazards written by John H. Latter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions in this book were presented, orally or as posters, at the International Volcanological Congress held in New Zealand from 1 to 9 February 1986, the centenary year of the Tarawera eruption of 10 June 1886. More than 500 people, from 29 countries, attend ed the Congress. Most of these works formed part of Symposium 4, "Volcanic Hazards - Prediction and Assess ment", convened by J.H. Latter, R.R. Dibble, D.A. Swanson and C.G. Newhall. The collection represents over half of the published abstracts of Symposium 4, together with three papers given at the Symposium, which lacked abstracts, and two which were part of Symposium 1 on pyroclastic flow deposits. The contribu tions cover a good proportion of the volcanically active parts of the world, with Italy, Japan, the West Indies and the USA especially well represented. Mount Erebus, Vulcano and Rabaul are individual volcanoes which have been treated in particular detail. Unfor tunately, there are no chapters in the book dealing with Africa, the Atlantic islands (except Iceland), Hawaii, Central America (except Mexico), or South America (in spite of the major disaster at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano in 1985).
Download or read book Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards written by Roberto Scarpa and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Campi Flegrei written by Giovanni Orsi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2022-02-09 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The densely populated Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera is one of the widest known, best studied and highly dangerous volcanoes of the world. This monograph synthesises the current knowledge of this volcano, through different review chapters. Each chapter of this book is dedicated to a specific volcanological aspect, authored by well-recognised experts. The volume attempts to cross the barriers between the volcanological, geological, geochemical and geophysical perspectives, and offers a comprehensive and up-to-date reference to earth-science scholars, as well as land planners and civil defence officers.
Download or read book Volcanic Hazard Assessment in Monogenetic Volcanic Fields written by Stefania Bartolini and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology, which represents a significant socio-economic implication, is to conduct hazard assessment in active volcanic systems. These volcanological studies are aimed at hazard that allows to constructing hazard maps and simulating different eruptive scenarios, and are mainly addressed to contribute to territorial planning, definition of emergency plans or managing volcanic crisis. The impact of a natural event, as a volcanic eruption, can significantly affect human life, property, infrastructures, and the environment. Long periods of quiescence are quite common in many volcanic areas and this often leads to a fall in the alert. The consequence is lack of preparation to deal with a volcanic crisis. The present Ph.D. Thesis is focused on the development and application of different tools for the spatial and temporal analyses to assess volcanic hazard in monogenetic volcanic fields. Monogenetic volcanic fields are commonly not regarded as potentially dangerous and only a few studies concerning hazard assessment have been conducted in such environments. In the long-term hazard assessment, we assume that the future eruptive behaviour in the volcanic field could be similar to the last eruptive activity. First, we have developed a new tool, QVAST (QGIS for VolcAnic SuscepTibility), designed to carry out the spatial analysis. This tool allows to calculate the volcanic susceptibility of the area, i.e. the probability of new vent opening, using direct and indirect structural data. Second, we have developed a new tool, HASSET (Hazard Assessment Event Tree), to conduct temporal analysis. Combining both tools and the previous one, VORIS 2.0.1, that uses simulation models to predict the most probable eruptive scenarios and which areas could be affected by a future eruptive event, we can evaluate in a probabilistic way long-term hazard represented by a qualitative hazard map that allows us to identify different levels of hazard in the study area. In this thesis we present different case studies. The first example was carried out at El Hierro Island (Canary Islands), an island essentially characterized by basaltic volcanism with both Strombolian and Hawaiian activity. The last eruption on El Hierro occurred in 2011-2012 demonstrates the importance of reliable data and tools that can enable scientific advisors and decision-makers to consider possible future eruptive scenarios. The second case study was Deception Island (Southern Shetland Archipelago, Antarctica), which is the most active volcano in the South Shetland Islands and has been the scene of more than twenty eruptions over the past two centuries. We identified a number of significant scenarios using our GIS-based tools and evaluated the potential extent of the main volcanic hazards to be expected on the island. The last case study presented is La Garrotxa Volcanic Field (NE of Spain), which is a quaternary volcanic field, located in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, and includes more than 50 well preserved volcanoes. Finally, considering the importance of both quantity and quality of the available volcanic data and an optimum storage mechanism and as complement to the e-tools we have developed, we describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data to be manipulated, organized, managed. The design of purpose-built databases should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, simulate volcanic hazards and assess their socio-economic impact, avoiding any duplication of information. The methodologies described in this thesis establish the general guidelines of a procedure that facilitates undertaking volcanic hazard assessment in a systematic way, which can be easily applied to any volcanic area or system, and in particular to any monogenetic volcanic field.
Download or read book Statistical Methods Applied to Volcanology and Volcanic Hazard Assessment written by Rosa Maria Sobradelo Pérez and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disasters are large intractable problems that test the ability of communities and nations to effectively protect their populations and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. The randomness of impacts and problems, and uniqueness of incidents demand dynamic, real-time, effective and cost efficient solutions. For this reason, we need quantitative risk-based methods for decision-making under uncertainty to be developed and applied to volcanology. Volcanic activity is a natural phenomenon that can turn into a disaster under certain conditions. They are natural processes that cannot be controlled, but their potentially disastrous effects can be mitigated. Volcanoes have implicit a natural hazard which can threaten human lives and properties of those communities living near by. The eruptions of volcanoes considered "dormant" or "inactive" have been liable for major disasters in the past. The volcanic hazard from volcanoes with a long term recurrence tends to be ignored, especially when little or no historical data exists. This is the case of Teide - Pico Viejo Stratovolcanoes in the island of Tenerife. Due to the limited scientific observability of the interior of a volcano, there is a lot of uncertainty in forecasting volcanic eruptions. During a volcanic crisis decision-makers need to take important life and death decisions under strict time and uncertainty constrains. They are afraid of getting a decision wrong, causing unnecessary economic disruption and public anxiety and distress. There is an increasing recognition of the need of combining mathematical models, together with statistical and operations research methods to address disaster management. The interdisciplinary science of mathematics applied to the study of volcanology and volcanic hazard is an important approach which will help understand volcanic processes by integrating keen volcanological insights with sound statistical modeling and artful application of computational power. The aim of this thesis is to work with volcanologists to try and address, with the appropriate statistical methods, those questions they raise, and have volcanologists collaborate with statisticians to learn about the advantages in the application of statistical techniques to the interpretation of volcanic data. Here, we propose and analyze different statistical methodologies to interpret volcanic data and assess volcanic hazard. The statistical technique will depend on the nature of the data and the type of problem we want to address. The models will be used to analyze and interpret the historical and geological volcanic data for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (TPV) and the Canary Islands archipelago. The first statistical method is an Elicitation of Expert Judgment using the so-called Classical Model to assign probabilities of occurrence to each possible eruptive scenario that can be outlined from the eruption history of the volcano, and our knowledge of other analogous volcanoes. The aim was to assess the long-term volcanic hazard of TPV, following an unrest episode in 2004 which created discrepancies among scientists regarding the nature of the unrest and the level of hazard. The second statistical method is a Bayesian Inference approach to compute the long-term probability for each volcanic scenario. The idea to use this method came after seeing the limitations on the Classical Model. The third method is a Non-parametric one-way unbalanced ANOVA using the Kruskal - Wallis test. This study was suggested following the publication for the first time of the World Collapse Caldera Database (WCCD) by the Group of Volcanology of Barcelona. The fourth statistical methodology NHGPP (Non-homogeneous generalized Pareto-Poisson process) uses extreme value theory to study eruptive time series combining geological and historical records. This methodology is applied to the Canary Islands eruptive time series to study volcanic recurrence.
Download or read book Volcanic Unrest written by Joachim Gottsmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.
Download or read book Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk written by Susan C. Loughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.
Download or read book Volcano Deformation written by Daniel Dzurisin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanoes and eruptions are dramatic surface man telemetry and processing, and volcano-deformation ifestations of dynamic processes within the Earth, source models over the past three decades. There has mostly but not exclusively localized along the been a virtual explosion of volcano-geodesy studies boundaries of Earth's relentlessly shifting tectonic and in the modeling and interpretation of ground plates. Anyone who has witnessed volcanic activity deformation data. Nonetheless, other than selective, has to be impressed by the variety and complexity of brief summaries in journal articles and general visible eruptive phenomena. Equally complex, works on volcano-monitoring and hazards mitiga however, if not even more so, are the geophysical, tion (e. g. , UNESCO, 1972; Agnew, 1986; Scarpa geochemical, and hydrothermal processes that occur and Tilling, 1996), a modern, comprehensive treat underground - commonly undetectable by the ment of volcano geodesy and its applications was human senses - before, during, and after eruptions. non-existent, until now. Experience at volcanoes worldwide has shown that, In the mid-1990s, when Daniel Dzurisin (DZ to at volcanoes with adequate instrumental monitor friends and colleagues) was serving as the Scientist ing, nearly all eruptions are preceded and accom in-Charge of the USGS Cascades Volcano Observa panied by measurable changes in the physical and tory (CVO), I first learned of his dream to write a (or) chemical state of the volcanic system. While book on volcano geodesy.
Download or read book Crustal Magmatic System Evolution written by Matteo Masotta and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-07-07 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive picture of the architecture of crustal magmatic systems The composition of igneous rocks – their minerals, melts, and fluids – reveals the physical and chemical conditions under which magmas form, evolve, interact, and move from the Earth’s mantle through the crust. These magma dynamics affect processes on the surface including crustal growth and eruptive behaviour of volcanoes. Crustal Magmatic System Evolution: Anatomy, Architecture, and Physico-Chemical Processes uses analytical, experimental, and numerical approaches to explore the diversity of crustal processes from magma differentiation and assimilation to eruption at the surface. Volume highlights include: Physical and chemical parameterization of crustal magmatic systems Experimental, theoretical and modelling approaches targeting crustal magmatic processes Timescales of crustal magmatic processes, including storage, recharge, and ascent through volcanic conduits The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book in a Q&A with the Editors.
Download or read book Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations written by IAEA and published by IAEA TECDOC Series. This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. It demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations.
Download or read book Geological Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
