Download or read book Do Analyst Earnings Forecasts Allow for Accounting Conservatism written by Jinhan Pae and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies show that accounting earnings are conservative, i.e., earnings tend to reflect bad news (negative stock returns) on a timelier basis than good news (positive stock returns) (Basu, 1997); moreover, the degree of conservatism is negatively associated with the price-to-book (P/B) ratio (Pae et al., 2003). If analysts correctly allowed for conservatism and its documented association with the P/B ratio, differences in earnings conservatism would be unassociated with analysts' forecast error. In contrast, we find that average yearend forecast error differs between good news and bad news firms, and between high and low P/B firms. We conclude that analysts' earnings forecasts do not fully incorporate the implications of earnings conservatism. We also find that forecast dispersion is greater for bad news than good news firms, and greater for low than high P/B firms, consistent with the hypothesis that accruals used to accelerate the recognition of bad news spawn disagreement about forthcoming earnings.
Download or read book Conservatism Analyst Ability and Forecast Error written by Henock Louis and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We posit that, because incorporating the effect of accounting conservatism on earnings forecasts likely requires a higher degree of sophistication, the ability to adjust earnings forecasts for conservatism should vary across security analysts. Consistent with this conjecture, we find that less experienced analysts are less able to account for the effect of conservatism when forecasting earnings. More specifically, we find that the initial optimism in analyst forecasts increases with accounting conservatism and that this relation significantly decreases with analyst experience. This finding has several implications. First, it indicates that the lack of sophistication by some analysts is likely one reason for the apparent bias in the initial forecast documented. Second, it suggests that conservatism could under certain circumstances result in stock mispricing. Third, it calls for a greater emphasis on the cross-sectional determinants of conservatism in accounting and financial statement analysis curriculums.
Download or read book Accounting Conservatism Information Uncertainty and Analysts Forecasts written by Jing Li and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines how accounting conservatism may affect the information environment of analysts' earnings forecasts, taking into account the interaction between unconditional and conditional conservatism. Unconditional conservatism preempts conditional conservatism in the later period and reduces the uncertainty in loss recognition associated with bad news. Through a simple analyst forecast model, I demonstrate that: 1) unconditional conservatism is negatively correlated with analysts' forecast errors for good news or mild bad news firms, but positively correlated with analysts' forecast errors for extreme bad news firms; and 2) unconditional conservatism reduces the overall uncertainty in analysts' forecasts. The empirical results are consistent with the predictions. Moreover, the evidence shows that the impact of unconditional conservatism on analysts' forecasts is greater for early forecasts, when the information uncertainty is high, than for late forecasts.
Download or read book Valuation Implications of Unconditional Accounting Conservatism written by Jae B. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether financial analysts understand the valuation implications of unconditional accounting conservatism when forecasting target prices. While accounting conservatism affects reported earnings, conservatism per se does not have an effect on the present value of future cash flows. We examine whether analysts adjust for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to estimate target prices. We find that signed target price errors (actual minus forecast) have a significant positive association with the degree of conservatism in forward earnings, suggesting that target prices are biased due to accounting conservatism. Cross-sectional analysis suggests that more sophisticated analysts and superior long-term forecasters adjust for conservatism to a greater extent than other analysts. In additional analyses, we explore the mechanism through which conservatism leads to bias in target prices. We first show that analysts' earnings forecasts are negatively associated with the degree of conservatism, i.e., analysts include the effect of unconditional conservatism in their earnings forecasts. Based on alternative earnings-based valuation models that analysts may use, our evidence suggests that analysts fail to appropriately adjust their valuation multiple for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to derive target prices. As a consequence, we find that, for extreme changes in conservatism, the bias in analysts' target prices due to conservatism leads to a distortion of market prices. The evidence highlights the concern that analysts may not appreciate the valuation implications of conservative accounting which could inhibit price discovery.
Download or read book Financial Analysts Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Download or read book Accounting Conservatism and Management Earnings Forecast written by Bikki Jaggi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is argued in the literature that accounting conservatism may be used as a substitute for management earnings forecasts (MEFs) to reduce information asymmetry between investors and management (Hui et al., 2009). We document in this study that accounting conservatism serves as a substitute for informative MEFs and especially for pessimistic MEFs, but not for opportunistic and optimistic forecasts. Accounting conservatism may, however, be used as supplementary to optimistic MEFs. Additionally, we find that accounting conservatism is especially used by the firms that have strong corporate governance, suggesting that strong corporate governance encourages the use of accounting conservatism rather than issuance of MEFs to reduce information asymmetry and to minimize potential legal suits for the firm.
Download or read book Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation written by Stephen H. Penman and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation is at the heart of investing. A considerable part of the information for valuation is in the financial statements.Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, 5 e by Stephen Penman shows students how to extract information from financial statements and use that data to value firms. The 5th edition shows how to handle the accounting in financial statements and use the financial statements as a lens to view a business and assess the value it generates.
Download or read book Conditional and Unconditional Conservatism written by Julia Nasev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-28 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Julia Nasev examines the impact of conservative accounting numbers on valuation estimates and on real economic decisions such as cost stickiness.
Download or read book Accounting Conservatism and Street Earnings written by Frank Heflin and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While conditional conservatism is useful to investors and creditors for various reasons, it potentially reduces the usefulness of GAAP earnings for valuation by investors. Consistent with this conjecture, we find evidence suggesting that conditional conservatism reduces GAAP earnings persistence, makes income smoothing more difficult, reduces GAAP earnings informativeness, and makes forecasting GAAP earnings more difficult for analysts. We predict and find that analysts respond to investor demands for earnings without some of the consequences of GAAP conditional conservatism and forecast Street earnings numbers with less conditional conservatism. The decrease in conditional conservatism from adjusting GAAP earnings to arrive at Street earnings leads to improvements in earnings properties (persistence, smoothing, and earnings response coefficients) and in analysts' forecast properties (less error and less dispersion). Further, we find that as GAAP conditional conservatism increases, (1) Street earnings more likely differ from GAAP earnings, and (2) the magnitude of the difference between Street and GAAP earnings increases. Finally, we find that the exclusions used to calculate Street earnings are of higher quality (i.e., less persistence for future operating earnings) for firms with higher GAAP conditional conservatism. Our results are consistent with the notion that analysts' exclusions improve the usefulness of Street earnings to investors as conditional conservatism of GAAP earnings increases.
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Download or read book Understanding Analysts Earnings Expectations written by Marco Aiolfi and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Earnings Expectation written by Wei Su and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Role of Analysts Forecasts in Accounting Based Valuation written by Qiang Cheng and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper critically evaluates the use of analysts' forecasts in accounting-based valuation. Specifically, I assess the usefulness and the limitation of analysts' forecasts in predicting future earnings and in explaining the market-to-book ratio, in light of a comprehensive set of twenty two explicit information items, including: economic rent proxies, conservative accounting proxies, earnings quality signals, transitory earnings proxies, industry characteristics, and risk and growth proxies. While analysts' forecasts capture 45-83% of the information from these sources depending on model specifications, they do not appear to fully incorporate certain information items. In particular, proxies for conservative accounting and transitory earnings are incrementally useful in predicting future earnings; proxies for economic rents, conservative accounting, and risk are incrementally useful in explaining the market-to-book ratio. Collectively, these results validate the use of analysts' forecasts as a parsimonious proxy for forward-looking information in accounting-based valuation and suggest how to improve on their use.
Download or read book Accounting Conservatism and the Stock Market written by Carlo D’Augusta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Download or read book Accounting Changes and the Accuracy of Analysts Earnings Forecasts written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Evaluation of Mechanical Earnings Forecast Models written by and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-06-24 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 2,7, University of Cologne, course: Bachelorseminar Corporate Finance, language: English, abstract: This paper seeks to examine different models to forecast revenue of companies. This is being achieved by examining costs of capital, which are a good representative therefor. The models examined in this paper can be divided into two sections. First, there are mechanical models, second there is one characteristic-based model. The models stand in contrast to analysts’ forecasts. This paper sums up different authors who illustrate, that mechanical models outperform analysts’ forecasts in terms of revenue forecasting. First, the HVZ mode is introduced which is due to outperform analysts’ forecasts. Second, the EP and RI model are introduced, next to a random walk model (RW model) as a benchmark. Objective of this paper is to find out which advantages go along with mechanical models, and whether the quality of forecast could be influenced positively. The topic of revenue forecast is highly relevant for different stakeholders in the financial industry. Based on revenue forecasts investment decisions are met by investors. One advantage of mechanical models therefore, is the greater feasibility due to the greater coverage. Mechanical models rely on firm fundamentals and are hence available for much more companies. Analysts’ forecasts are only available for firms of a certain size upwards. Costs of capital are a topic of focus not only for investment decisions but also for internal application. Apart from the use as a financial ratio it is negatively associated with customer satisfaction. The paper finds out, that the HVZ model outperforms analysts’ forecasts in terms of forecast bias and earnings response coefficient. However, the HVZ model does not outperform analysts’ forecasts in terms of accuracy. The EP and RI model both outperform the HVZ model in terms of all three criteria: forecast bias, earnings response coefficient and accuracy. The characteristic-based model sets up a linear function solely by firm fundamentals, that avoids including unobservable future covariances. Besides, it concludes certain key findings about abnormal earnings volatility and economy-wide risk.
