Download or read book Distributional consequences of wheat policy in Sudan A simulation model analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-15 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various policy options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful policy analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.
Download or read book Wheat subsidies wheat markets and food security in Sudan Current state and options for the future written by Abay, Kibrom A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-01-28 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This policy note summarizes the key findings from the following four research papers prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute with financial support by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID): 1. Bottlenecks in Sudan’s Wheat Value Chains: Insights from Surveys 2. Evaluating Cereal Market (Dis)Integration in Sudan 3. Distributional Consequences of Wheat Policy in Sudan: A Simulation Model Analysis 4. Political Economy of Wheat Value Chains in Post-Revolution Sudan
Download or read book Evaluating cereal market dis integration in Sudan written by Abay, Kibrom A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-01-27 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.
Download or read book The Russia Ukraine crisis Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses written by Abay, Kibrom A. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-05-18 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.
Download or read book Analysis of Sudan s Agricultural Trade Under Uncertainty written by Hanaa Abdel Hamid Ibrahim and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Agricultural Input Subsidies written by Ephraim Chirwa and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-09-26 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book takes forward our understanding of agricultural input subsidies in low income countries.
Download or read book Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature written by Siddig, Khalid and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2018-09-26 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 806 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sudan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines the monetary policy framework in Sudan, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism since the secession of South Sudan. The econometric analysis concludes that reserve money, the exchange rate, and private sector credit are the main determinants of inflation after the secession of South Sudan and that the transmission lags have been shortened significantly compared with previous studies. These findings reinforce the need for a comprehensive package of fiscal and monetary measures that strengthens the monetary policy framework and improves its effectiveness.
Download or read book The Rice Crisis written by David Dawe and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent escalation of world food prices – particularly for cereals - prompted mass public indignation and demonstrations in many countries, from the price of tortilla flour in Mexico to that of rice in the Philippines and pasta in Italy. The crisis has important implications for future government trade and food security policies, as countries re-evaluate their reliance on potentially more volatile world markets to augment domestic supplies of staple foods. This book examines how government policies caused and responded to soaring world prices in the particular case of rice, which is the world's most important source of calories for the poor. Comparable case studies of policy reactions in different countries, principally across Asia, but also including the USA, provide the understanding necessary to evaluate the impact of trade policy on the food security of poor farmers and consumers. They also provide important insights into the concerns of developing countries that are relevant for future international trade negotiations in key agricultural commodities. As a result, more appropriate policies can be put in place to ensure more stable food supplies in the future. Published with the Food and Agriculture (FAO) Organization of the United Nations
Download or read book Women s Empowerment and Nutrition written by Mara van den Bold and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many development programs that aim to alleviate poverty and improve investments in human capital consider womens empowerment a key pathway by which to achieve impact and often target women as their main beneficiaries. Despite this, womens empowerment dimensions are often not rigorously measured and are at times merely assumed. This paper starts by reflecting on the concept and measurement of womens empowerment and then reviews some of the structural interventions that aim to influence underlying gender norms in society and eradicate gender discrimination. It then proceeds to review the evidence of the impact of three types of interventionscash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programson womens empowerment, nutrition, or both. Qualitative evidence on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs generally points to positive impacts on womens empowerment, although quantitative research findings are more heterogenous. CCT programs produce mixed results on long-term nutritional status, and very limited evidence exists of their impacts on micronutrient status. The little evidence available on unconditional cash transters (UCT) indicates mixed impacts on womens empowerment and positive impacts on nutrition; however, recent reviews comparing CCT and UCT programs have found little difference in terms of their effects on stunting and they have found that conditionality is less important than other factors, such as access to healthcare and child age and sex. Evidence of cash transfer program impacts depending on the gender of the transfer recipient or on the conditionality is also mixed, although CCTs with non-health conditionalities seem to have negative impacts on nutritional status. The impacts of programs based on the gender of the transfer recipient show mixed results, but almost no experimental evidence exists of testing gender-differentiated impacts of a single program. Agricultural interventionsspecifically home gardening and dairy projectsshow mixed impacts on womens empowerment measures such as time, workload, and control over income; but they demonstrate very little impact on nutrition. Implementation modalities are shown to determine differential impacts in terms of empowerment and nutrition outcomes. With regard to the impact of microfinance on womens empowerment, evidence is also mixed, although more recent reviews do not find any impact on womens empowerment. The impact of microfinance on nutritional status is mixed, with no evidence of impact on micronutrient status. Across all three types of programs (cash transfer programs, agricultural interventions, and microfinance programs), very little evidence exists on pathways of impact, and evidence is often biased toward a particular region. The paper ends with a discussion of the findings and remaining evidence gaps and an outline of recommendations for research.
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 972 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bibliography of Agriculture written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 1272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bibliography of Agriculture with Subject Index written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 770 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Earth Resources written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 760 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Abstracts on Rural Development in the Tropics written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nutrition Abstracts and Reviews written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 1778 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
