Download or read book Deriving Agents Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Christopher Ragan and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to compare the nominal yields on two assets of different maturities and attribute the difference in nominal yields to differences in expected inflation over the two horizons (assuming a constant term premium). The results for the United States and Canada over the past several years suggest that there is a significant static element to agents' inflation expectations.
Download or read book Deriving Agents Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Christopher Ragan and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting written by Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Real Interest Rates Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Li-Hsueh Chen and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Frank Browne and published by [Paris, France] : OECD, Department of Economics and Statistics. This book was released on 1989 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Heterogeneous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates Least Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Targeting written by Eric Schaling and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e., the central bank and private agents - who have different information sets about the future sequence of short-term interest rates. We analyse inflation forecast targeting in two environments. One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector interest rate expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has imperfect knowledge and has to learn the private sector forecasting rule for short-term interest rates. In the case of imperfect knowledge, the central bank has to learn about private sector interest rate expectations, as the latter affect the impact of monetary policy through the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates. Here, following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation and control. Therefore, this model suggests that the practical relevance of the breakdown of the separation principle and the need for experimentation in policy may be limited.
Download or read book The Term Structure Od Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting written by S. Eijffinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Incomplete Information the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecasts written by Thierry Ferland-Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Expected Economic Growth written by María Isabel Martínez Serna and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation for this economic link is based on monetary policy. However, empirical evidence (Estrella and Hardouvelis, 1991; Plosser and Rouwenhorst, 1994; Estrella and Mishkin, 1997; Moersch, 1996a,b; Kozicki, 1997; Dotsey, 1998; Ivanova et al., 2000) has shown that monetary policy does not appear to be the only source of the predictive power of the term spread. Therefore, the spread reflects other economic conditions beyond actions taken by monetary authorities. According to Harvey (1988), the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. Harvey (1988) uses the Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) to derive a forecasting equation that relates the slope of the term structure of interest rates to expected consumption growth. Harvey's model has been tested in several countries using ex post consumption or output growth as proxies of expected consumption growth. This paper complements and extends the evidence of Harvey's model by testing it for the case of Spain and by using a measure of expected consumption growth rather than proxies for the investors' expectations. The variables used are the Consumer Confidence Indicator and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (elaborated by the European Commission) that directly stand for the expectations of economic agents about the future economic situation in the next twelve months.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Download or read book Inflation indexed Securities written by Mark Deacon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-04-21 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global market for inflation-indexed securities has ballooned in recent years, and this trend is set to continue. This book examines the rationale behind issuance and investment decisions, and details the issues facing anyone who designs indexed securities, illustrating them wherever possible with actual examples from the international capital markets. In particular, an extensive review of indexed debt markets throughout the world is provided - including for the first time, a comprehensive and consistent set of cash flow and price-yield equations for the instruments already in existence in the major bond markets - forming an important reference for those already experienced in the field, as well as practitioners and academics approaching the subject for the first time. The book also provides unique insight into the development of inflation-indexed derivative products, and the analytical tools required to value such instruments.
Download or read book Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations written by Paul Söderlind and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Imperative of Economic Growth in the Eurozone Competitiveness Capital Flows and Structural Reforms written by Lubor Lacina and published by Vernon Press. This book was released on 2018-01-15 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: European economic recovery appears to be taking hold. So is the European crisis over? The acute phase of the crisis passed, however a number of medium and long term issues remain. The policies of “internal devaluations” are working, albeit slowly, to restore competitiveness in the countries most affected by the crisis. However, growth remains at best sluggish. The medium and long term outlook remains highly uncertain, fomenting social tensions and endangering political stability. The restoration of economic dynamism is increasingly perceived as the answer to the question of the “European” future – economically, politically and socially. There is a broad consensus that dynamic structural reforms and the restoration of competitiveness at the level of the global economy are key answers to current European challenges. However, whatever the form these may take, the transfer of resources is implicit (and seemingly necessary), to underpin the current structure of eurozone. This indeed raises the question of governance – both fiscal and monetary. After all, the provision of resources implies an allocation – and it is hard to imagine that resources will be provided to the common pool unless the providers have some say with respect to allocation. And that requires some form of common (i.e. centralized) decision-making procedures, in all likelihood exceeding the common understanding of the acquis communautaire as it exists today – i.e. some form of the effective political arrangement. In this context, the basic idea which connects all contributions in this volume is the analysis of the problems which affected the Eurozone in the past decade and the challenges and dilemmas the Eurozone will face in the coming years.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble written by Jane Dokko and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Bank of Canada s New Quarterly Projection Model QPM written by Leo Butler and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system. The report begins with a short history of the measurement of potential output. Building on this experience, a hybrid method of measuring potential output is developed that combines economic structure with a time-series filter. The resulting filter, known as the extended multivariate (EMV) filter, exploits theoretical relationships that are embodied in QPM in an effort to identify demand-side and supply-side influences on output. These various relationships are combined in a filter that imposes a smoothness property on the dynamics of potential output. The report describes the general structure of the EMV filter, the various economic relationships that it uses, and the weights applied to these different pieces of information. It concludes with an evaluation of the EMV filter and some suggestions for future improvements.
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
