Download or read book Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy written by Karolina Holmberg and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper, a marginal-cost based New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on Swedish data by means of GMM and Full Information Maximum Likelihood. The results show that with real marginal cost in the structural equation the point estimates generally have the exptected positive sign, which is less frequently the case using the output gap in the Phillips curve equation. This suggests that real marginal cost might be a more adequate real explanatory variable for Swedish inflation than the output gap. However, standard errors in the estimations are large and it is in fact difficult to pin down a statistically significant relationship between either real marginal cost or the output gap and inflation.
Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy written by Syed Kanwar Abbas and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study estimates the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) of Gali and Monacelli for a small open economy using Australian data. Our detailed investigation hinges on estimating the structural parameters in five different variants of the Gali-Monacelli NKPC, which relates the inflation process to terms of trade and the real exchange rate; the marginal cost and output gap as proxies for real economic activity and the hybrid version incorporating both forward- and backward-looking inflation expectations. The analysis and extensive robustness checks overwhelmingly establish that the Gali-Monacelli NKPC cannot explain the dynamics of inflation and is rejected by the Australian data.
Download or read book The Small Open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Alexander Mihailov and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies GMM estimation to assess empirically the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005). We obtain a testable specification where fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as a more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap. Overall, our results indicate some, albeit moderate, support for the tested relationship based on data from ten OECD countries typically classified as open economies.
Download or read book Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Small Open Economy with Complete Pass through written by Alon Binyamini and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The new Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Assaf Razin and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper extends Woodford's (2000) analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital market, raises the degree of strategic complementarity among monopolistically competitive suppliers, thus rendering prices more sticky and magnifying output responses to nominal GDP shocks.
Download or read book International Competition and Inflation written by Luca Guerrieri and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop and estimate an open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in which variable demand elasticities give rise to changes in desired markups in response to changes in competitive pressure from abroad. A parametric restriction on our specification yields the standard NKPC, in which the elasticity is constant, and there is no role for foreign competition to influence domestic inflation. By comparing the unrestricted and restricted specifications, we provide evidence that foreign competition plays an important role in accounting for the behavior of inflation in the traded goods sector. Our estimates suggest that foreign competition has lowered domestic goods inflation about 1 percentage point over the 2000-2006 period. Our results also provide evidence against demand curves with a constant elasticity in the context of models of monopolistic competition.
Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for a Small Open Economy written by Pål Boug and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Two country New Keynesian DSGE Model written by Marcos Antonio Coutinho da Silveira and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Estonia Latvia and Lithuania written by Aurelijus Dabusinskas and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Paolo Guarda and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) differs from the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve in that it is forward-looking and links inflation to a measure of marginal cost instead of unemployment or the output gap. More fundamentally, the NPC is derived from New Keynesian models that combine nominal rigidities with individual optimising behaviour and model-consistent (rational) expectations. Because the NPC is grounded in micro-theory (unlike the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve), it is robust to some forms of the Lucas critique and may serve to analyse the impact structural changes such as increased price flexibility may have on inflation. New Keynesian Phillips curve estimates for Luxembourg using the Galí and Gertler (1999) hybrid form suggest that firms change prices often but tend to use backward-looking rules-of-thumb instead of resetting prices optimally using forward-looking expectations. In terms of policy implications, although the results suggest prices in Luxembourg are relatively flexible, the prevalence of backward-looking price setting implies greater inflation persistence and a higher sacrifice ratio attached to disinflationary monetary policy. From the perspective of individual firms, backward-looking price setting may be a rational response in a very small open economy because of its vulnerability to external shocks. Small size and openness plausibly imply higher costs of collecting information and lower benefits from optimal price setting.
Download or read book The Small Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve Specification Structural Breaks and Robustness written by Juan Carlos Aquinoy and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Linking Excessive Disinflation and Output Movements in an Emerging Small Open Economy written by Karol Szafranek and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by Þorvarður Tjörvi Ólafsson and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Evaluating an Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model written by Malin Adolfson and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates and tests a new Keynesian small open economy model in the tradition of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003) using Bayesian estimation techniques on Swedish data. To account for the switch to an inflation targeting regime in 1993 we allow for a discrete break in the central bank's instrument rule. A key equation in the model - the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition - is well known to be rejected empirically. Therefore we explore the consequences of modifying the UIP condition to allow for a negative correlation between the risk premium and the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. The results show that the modification increases the persistence and volatility in the real exchange rate and that this model has an empirical advantage compared with the standard UIP specification.
Download or read book Open Economy New Keynesian Macroeconomic Models and the Cost Channel written by Sérgio Miguel Chilra Lagoa and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence in the literature points to a puzzling initial increase in inflation after an increase in nominal interest rates. This can be explained by the fact that firms have to borrow money to pay wages in advance, i.e., by the cost channel. In this paper, the study of the cost channel is extended to an open economy with sticky prices. It is shown that a broadened concept of the cost channel has significant implications for the economy's dynamics and monetary policy, and also contributes to explain some interesting empirical evidence. Supply side effects of interest rates and import prices on inflation have important implications for monetary policy. Usually such effects are estimated using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). However, the estimation of the cost channel maybe distorted when import prices are omitted from that curve. To address this issue, we estimate empirically the NKPC for domestic and CPI inflations. In relation with this, we also study if imports of consumption goods are paid in advance, whether there is an immediate pass-through of exchange rates, and if imports should be treated as final consumption goods and/or as inputs in production. Another concern of monetary policy in a monetary union is inflation differentials, since they can undermine the success of the union. Against this background, our goal is to explore the determinants of inflation differentials in twelve euro area countries, focusing on the role of the business cycle. On one hand, convergence of inflation rates and business cycles is analysed with both an unobserved component model estimated with the Kalman filter and a common factor approach. On the other hand, an econometric analysis of the determinants of inflation differentials is performed.
Download or read book Evaluating New Keynesian Models of a Small Open Economy written by Paolo Giordani and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We suggest a strategy to evaluate members of a class of New-Keynesian models of a small open economy. As an example, we estimate a modified version of the model in Svensson [Journal of International Economics (2000) Vol. 50, pp. 155-183] and compare its impulse response and variance decomposition functions with those a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. The focus is on responses to foreign rather than to domestic shocks, which facilitates identification. Some results are that US shocks account for large shares of the variance of Canadian variables, that little of this influence is due to real exchange rate movements, and that Canadian monetary policy is not adequately described by a Taylor rule.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
