Download or read book Dependence Modeling and Inference for Insurance Risks written by Marie-Pier Côté and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Modeling the dependence between risks is crucial for the computation of the economic capital and the variability of insurance liabilities. It is thus not surprising that copula (regression) models are widely used in actuarial applications. In this thesis, three topics on dependence modeling for insurance risks are considered. The first part of this work explores the probabilistic features of the dependence structures underlying the background risk model (RX, RY), where R is a strictly positive random variable independent of the random vector (X,Y). This broad class of copulas encompasses Archimedean and elliptical copulas, but also new interesting models, some of which yield explicit expressions for the distribution and tail-value-at-risk of the sum RX+RY. The remainder of the thesis is more statistical in nature. There are numerous actuarial applications of copula models where marginal distributions vary with covariates, but few tools are available for inference in that context. In the second part of the thesis, the validity of rank-based tools for copula inference is established under carefully designed assumptions that hold for all the covariate dependent marginal distributions commonly used for modeling insurance data. Simulation studies are performed in two property and casualty insurance examples: loss triangles for two lines of business and micro-level multivariate claim amounts. The latter example is treated in details in a Bayesian data analysis reported in the last part of this thesis. The model accounts for the dependence between claimants involved in a single event and between amounts paid to a claimant under different insurance coverages. A multiple imputation procedure allows to include the information contained in open claimant files, without which the inference is biased towards simple claims." --

Download or read book Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks written by Michel Denuit and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-01 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The increasing complexity of insurance and reinsurance products has seen a growing interest amongst actuaries in the modelling of dependent risks. For efficient risk management, actuaries need to be able to answer fundamental questions such as: Is the correlation structure dangerous? And, if yes, to what extent? Therefore tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence between different risks are vital. Combining coverage of stochastic order and risk measure theories with the basics of risk management and stochastic dependence, this book provides an essential guide to managing modern financial risk. * Describes how to model risks in incomplete markets, emphasising insurance risks. * Explains how to measure and compare the danger of risks, model their interactions, and measure the strength of their association. * Examines the type of dependence induced by GLM-based credibility models, the bounds on functions of dependent risks, and probabilistic distances between actuarial models. * Detailed presentation of risk measures, stochastic orderings, copula models, dependence concepts and dependence orderings. * Includes numerous exercises allowing a cementing of the concepts by all levels of readers. * Solutions to tasks as well as further examples and exercises can be found on a supporting website. An invaluable reference for both academics and practitioners alike, Actuarial Theory for Dependent Risks will appeal to all those eager to master the up-to-date modelling tools for dependent risks. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on risk management in incomplete markets. Traders looking for practical advice on insurance markets will also find much of interest.

Download or read book Empirical Investigation of Insurance Claim Dependencies Using Mixture Models written by Emiliano A. Valdez and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For several years now, there continues to be attention in the modeling of insurance and other similar type of risks, such as the risk of credit default, to incorporate the presence of dependencies. Some of the early papers appearing in the literature demonstrate that for a typical portfolio of such risks, ignoring dependencies can have a direct impact on the tail or extremes of the resulting portfolio loss distribution. The tail of the loss distribution is something not to be ignored by the actuary or the risk manager. To date, in spite of this growing number of papers in the literature on dependence modeling, we find that there is no known published work that provides for an empirical evidence to validate the presence of dependencies in an insurance portfolio. In this paper, we use mixture models, customarily suggested to model dependent credit default risks, to facilitate the investigation of claim dependencies. The empirical data used to calibrate these models came from a portfolio of automobile insurance policies drawn from a randomly selected insurance provider. In order to measure the presence of claim dependencies, one of the most reasonable statistic to use is the relative risk ratio, a measure that is widely popular in medical statistics and is used to gauge how the claim occurrence of a particular insurance risk induces claim of another insurance risk. Our calibration results indicate some presence of positive dependencies; relative risk is in the neighborhood of 1.4 and resulting pair-wise correlation is 0.04. The model naturally extends to capture policyholder heterogeneity through the presence of co-variates by introducing mixture models with co-variates as explained in this article. Not surprisingly, because the premium is the actuary's best guess of the degree of riskiness of an insurance risk, at least on an a priori basis, it provides for the single most important factor that influences the presence of claim dependencies.

Download or read book Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis written by Dipak K. Dey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subje

Download or read book Modeling Dependence Induced by a Common Random Effect and Risk Measures with Insurance Applications written by Junjie Liu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Random effects models are of particular importance in modeling heterogeneity. A commonly used random effects model for multivariate survival analysis is the frailty model. In this thesis, a special frailty model with an Archimedean dependence structure is used to model dependent risks. This modeling approach allows the construction of multivariate distributions through a copula with univariate marginal distributions as parameters. Copulas are constructed by modeling distribution functions and survival functions, respectively. Measures of the dependence are applied for the copula model selections. Tail-based risk measures for the functions of two dependent variables are investigated for particular interest. The statistical application of the copula modeling approach to an insurance data set is discussed where losses and loss adjustment expenses data are used. Insurance applications based on the fitted model are illustrated.

Download or read book Risk and Insurance written by Søren Asmussen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-04-17 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability. Both non-life and life aspects are covered. The emphasis is on probability and modeling rather than statistics and practical implementation. Aimed at the graduate level, pointing in part to current research topics, it can potentially replace other textbooks on basic non-life insurance mathematics and advanced risk management methods in non-life insurance. Based on chapters selected according to the particular topics in mind, the book may serve as a source for introductory courses to insurance mathematics for non-specialists, advanced courses for actuarial students, or courses on probabilistic aspects of risk. It will also be useful for practitioners and students/researchers in related areas such as finance and statistics who wish to get an overview of the general area of mathematical modeling and analysis in insurance.

Download or read book Discrete time Insurance Risk Models with Dependence Structures written by Kam-pui Wat and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Study on Insurance Risk Models with Subexponential Tails and Dependence Structures written by Yiqing Chen and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Study on Insurance Risk Models With Subexponential Tails and Dependence Structures" by Yiqing, Chen, 陳宜清, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4284176 Subjects: Risk (Insurance) - Mathematical models

Download or read book A Multivariate Claim Count Model for Applications in Insurance written by Daniela Anna Selch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-31 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph presents a time-dynamic model for multivariate claim counts in actuarial applications. Inspired by real-world claim arrivals, the model balances interesting stylized facts (such as dependence across the components, over-dispersion and the clustering of claims) with a high level of mathematical tractability (including estimation, sampling and convergence results for large portfolios) and can thus be applied in various contexts (such as risk management and pricing of (re-)insurance contracts). The authors provide a detailed analysis of the proposed probabilistic model, discussing its relation to the existing literature, its statistical properties, different estimation strategies as well as possible applications and extensions. Actuaries and researchers working in risk management and premium pricing will find this book particularly interesting. Graduate-level probability theory, stochastic analysis and statistics are required.

Download or read book Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation written by Committee to Assess Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-03-23 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the seventh in a series of titles from the National Research Council that addresses the effects of exposure to low dose LET (Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation and human health. Updating information previously presented in the 1990 publication, Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR V, this book draws upon new data in both epidemiologic and experimental research. Ionizing radiation arises from both natural and man-made sources and at very high doses can produce damaging effects in human tissue that can be evident within days after exposure. However, it is the low-dose exposures that are the focus of this book. So-called “late” effects, such as cancer, are produced many years after the initial exposure. This book is among the first of its kind to include detailed risk estimates for cancer incidence in addition to cancer mortality. BEIR VII offers a full review of the available biological, biophysical, and epidemiological literature since the last BEIR report on the subject and develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation.

Download or read book Discrete time Insurance Risk Models with Dependence Structures written by Kam-pui Wat and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics written by Marcelo G. Cruz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-29 with total page 939 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A one-stop guide for the theories, applications, and statistical methodologies essential to operational risk Providing a complete overview of operational risk modeling and relevant insurance analytics, Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk offers a systematic approach that covers the wide range of topics in this area. Written by a team of leading experts in the field, the handbook presents detailed coverage of the theories, applications, and models inherent in any discussion of the fundamentals of operational risk, with a primary focus on Basel II/III regulation, modeling dependence, estimation of risk models, and modeling the data elements. Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk begins with coverage on the four data elements used in operational risk framework as well as processing risk taxonomy. The book then goes further in-depth into the key topics in operational risk measurement and insurance, for example diverse methods to estimate frequency and severity models. Finally, the book ends with sections on specific topics, such as scenario analysis; multifactor modeling; and dependence modeling. A unique companion with Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk, the handbook also features: Discussions on internal loss data and key risk indicators, which are both fundamental for developing a risk-sensitive framework Guidelines for how operational risk can be inserted into a firm’s strategic decisions A model for stress tests of operational risk under the United States Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program A valuable reference for financial engineers, quantitative analysts, risk managers, and large-scale consultancy groups advising banks on their internal systems, the handbook is also useful for academics teaching postgraduate courses on the methodology of operational risk.

Download or read book Dependence Modeling written by Harry Joe and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka

Download or read book Modeling Dependent Risk Process in Insurance with Copula written by Ting Yang and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Applications of Random Effects in Dependent Compound Risk Models written by Himchan Jeong and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the ratemaking for general insurance, calculation of the pure premium has traditionally been based on modeling frequency and severity separately. It has also been a standard practice to assume, for simplicity, the independence of loss frequency and loss severity. However, in recent years, there is a sporadic interest in the actuarial literature and practice to explore models that depart from this independence assumption. Besides, because of the short-term nature of many lines of general insurance, the availability of data enables us to explore the benefits of using random effects for predicting insurance claims observed longitudinally, or over a period of time. This thesis advances work related to the modeling of compound risks via random effects. First, we examine procedures for testing random effects using Bayesian sensitivity analysis via Bregman divergence. It enables insurance companies to judge whether to use random effects for their ratemaking model or not based on observed data. Second, we extend previous work on the credibility premium of compound sum by incorporating possible dependence as a unified formula. In this work, an informative dependence measure between the frequency and severity components is introduced which can capture both the direction and strength of possible dependence. Third, credibility premium with GB2 copulas are explored so that one can have a succint closed form of the credibility premium with GB2 marginals and explicit approximation of credibility premium with non-GB2 marginals. Finally, we extend microlevel collective risk model into multi-year case using the shared random effect. Such framework includes many previous dependence models as special cases and a specific example is provided with elliptical copulas. We develop the theoretical framework associated with each work, calibrate each model with empirical data and evaluate model performance with out-of-sample validation measures and procedures.

Download or read book Risk Management written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-01-10 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of derivative products in risk management has spread from commodities, stocks and fixed income items, to such virtual commodities as energy, weather and bandwidth. All this can give rise to so-called volatility and there has been a consequent development in formal risk management techniques to cover all types of risk: market, credit, liquidity, etc. One of these techniques, Value at Risk, was developed specifically to help manage market risk over short periods. Its success led, somewhat controversially, to its take up and extension to credit risk over longer time-scales. This extension, ultimately not successful, led to the collapse of a number of institutions. The present book, which was originally published in 2002, by some of the leading figures in risk management, examines the complex issues that concern the stability of the global financial system by presenting a mix of theory and practice.

Download or read book Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products written by Shadreck Mapfumo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2017-04-13 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Named peril index insurance has great potential to address unmet risk management needs for agricultural insurance in developing economies, potentially contributing to increased agricultural sustainability and improved food security. However, the development and appraisal of index insurance business lines is not without challenges. Insurers must rigorously evaluate the quality of the products they offer and take care to ensure that distributors and policyholders understand the benefits and limits of the purchased coverage. Without these important steps to ensure responsible insurance practices, insurers can damage the implementation and potential of index insurance in the market. Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products: A Guide for Practitioners helps stakeholders in the named peril index insurance industry appraise new and existing products. Part 1 of the guide provides a summary of the insights and decisions required for the insurer to make an informed decision to launch and expand an index insurance business line. Insurance managers are the primary audience for part 1. Part 2 provides a step-by-step guide to calculating the decision metrics used by the insurance manager in part 1. These metrics are calculated using probabilistic modeling that provides insights into risks related to the index insurance product. Actuarial analysts are the primary audience for part 2. In an increasingly competitive insurance market, creative product development and imaginative business strategies are becoming the norm. This guide will help emerging market insurers who seek to stay on the cutting edge to successfully and sustainably penetrate new market segments.