Download or read book Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty written by Robert J. Lempert and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-01-29 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the air-delivered munitions mix challenge. RDM is quantitative, decision support methodology designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity. This proof-of-concept demonstration suggests that RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
Download or read book Strategy and Defence Planning written by Colin S. Gray and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategy and Defence Planning: Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning.
Download or read book New Challenges New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-03-31 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.
Download or read book Strategy to Task Resource Management written by Tamas S. Gaspar and published by . This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current defense planning methods do not ensure a direct connection between national security objectives and military tasks. The Strategy-to-Task method provides a framework for solving this deficiency by establishing a hierarchy, starting from national objectives, through military objectives and missions to military tasks. Below these tasks, performance standards can be used for estimating the utility of a given task. This hierarchical approach helps decision-makers understand these important linkages. It could also serve as a framework for prioritizing the different tasks and contribute to better resource allocation, by analyzing different alternatives in a multi-attribute space. There are two decision-supporting methods for setting up priorities within this hierarchy of multi-attribute objectives. The first one, Multi-Attribute Utility Function Analysis, is a useful method for cases when performance standards can easily be established. This method could be used under both certainty and uncertainty and can address dependence and independence among the attributes or their utilities. The second method, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, could be used in cases when performance standards are difficult to establish as is typically the case in the higher levels of the hierarchy. The hierarchical approach and the two methods are illustrated through the case of Hungary's participation in NATO peace-operations.
Download or read book Defense Resource Management written by Walter R. Milliken and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book New Challenges for Defense Planning written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 1994 with total page 769 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This definitive study on defense planning in the new era covers alternative strategies and structures for post-Cold War defense planning and planning under uncertainty.
Download or read book U S Defense Planning written by John M Collins and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Superior defense plans fuse political, economic, military, technological, and sociological power in ways that cover state interests, while conserving resources to the greatest prudent extent. Poor products can increase costs without reducing risks, because forces and funds that support slipshod schemes often fail to furnish security. This critical appraisal of the U.5. defense planning system seeks to serve a five-fold purpose: set assessment standards, appraise U.S. planning in principle, appraise U.5. planning in practice, identify U.S. planning problems and present optional courses of corrective action. The study shows how domestic and foreign policy inputs from the White House, National 5ecurity Council, and State Department affect defense planning.
Download or read book Systems Analysis and Policy Planning written by Edward S. Quade and published by New York : American Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1968 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the present and future usefulness of systems analysis as an approach to policy planning, particularly in matters of national security. The study considers the basic concepts of systems analysis, including the problem of selecting operationally useful objectives, measures of their attainment, and criteria; the treatment of uncertainty; the place and function of technological considerations in planning or evaluating advanced systems; the character and role of resource and cost-sensitivity analysis; and the nature and value of models in systems analysis, especially the models provided by mathematical game theory, simulation, scenario writing, political analysis, and gaming. Earlier conclusions are reexamined in the light of the successes and failures of systems analysis during the past decade. Newer methods of analysis are discussed.
Download or read book Lessons from RAND s Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. As the Cold War waned, RAND developed new methods that urged sketching the no-surprises future, listing known branch-style uncertainties, and stretching the imagination to envision potential shocks, good or bad (e.g., Soviet Union disintegration or Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait). Major surprises will nonetheless occur, and some of RAND's most important work on uncertainty has to do with coping with surprise developments. RAND's progress in national security uncertainty analysis benefited from a confluence of developments in computer and software technology, theory and practice in strategic planning and decisionmaking, analytic theory and methods, and theory of complex adaptive systems. Work has emphasized facing up to deep uncertainty in many dimensions, performing exploratory analysis of "the possibility space," identifying regions of that space that pose special risks or opportunities, finding options to improve capabilities, and using portfolio analysis to conceive and compare strategic options for economically dealing with the diversity of challenges. A cross-cutting RAND theme is finding flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies. Ultimately, different problems call for different approaches to uncertainty. If the theory of planning under uncertainty and preparing to cope with surprise effectively is difficult and complex, this report makes clear that implementing and maintaining corresponding changes is even more difficult and suggests that policymakers to be constantly vigilant in ensuring that related initiatives are not undercut or allowed to wither."--Provided by publisher.
Download or read book Defense Resource Management written by Walter R. Milliken and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Evolving Role of Joint Military Institutions in Defense Resource Planning written by Robert P. Hilton and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Defense Planning in a Decade of Change written by Eric Victor Larson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2001 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The end of the Cold War ushered in an era of profound change in the international arena and hence in the policymaking environment as well. Yet the changes that have characterized the post-Cold War era have often proceeded at different paces and have at times moved in opposing directions, placing unprecedented strain on policymakers seeking to shape a new national security and military strategy. This report describes the challenges policymakers have faced as seen through the lens of the three major force structure reviews that have taken place over the past decade: the 1990 Base Force, the 1993 Bottom-Up Review, and the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review. The report focuses on the assumptions, decisions, and outcomes associated with these reviews as well as the planning and execution of each. It concludes that all three reviews fell short of fully apprehending the demands of the emerging threat environment, and the budgets that would be needed and afforded, resulting in a growing imbalance between strategy, forces, and resources over the decade. Accordingly, the report recommends that future defense planners adopt an assumption-based approach in which key planning assumptions are continually reassessed with a view toward recognizing--and rapidly responding to--emerging gaps and shortfalls.
Download or read book Defence Planning as Strategic Fact written by Henrik Breitenbauch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-04 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defence Planning as Strategic Fact provides and elaborates on an "upstream" focus on the variegated organizational, political and conceptual practices of military, civilian administrative and political leaderships involved in defence planning, offering an important security and strategic studies supplement to the traditional "downstream" focus on the use of force. The book enables the reader to engage with the role of ideas in defence planning, of organizational processes and biases, path dependencies and administrative dynamics under the pressures of continuously changing domestic and international constraints. The chapters show how defence planning must be seen as a constitutive element of defence and strategic studies – that it is a strategic fact of its own which merits particular practical and scholarly attention. As defence planning creates the conditions behind every peace upheld or broken and every war won or lost, Defence Planning as Strategic Fact will be of great use to scholars of defence studies, strategic studies, and military studies. This book was originally published as a special issue of Defence Studies.
Download or read book Some Critical Thoughts on Defense Resource Planning and the Role of Analysis written by Thomas E. Anger and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The document discusses defense resource planning under McNamara and shows how his system worked, as opposed to what he said about it. Then the document shows how the Laird system worked, and compares the major differences between the McNamara and Laird systems. Next, the document highlights the role of the participants in the Laird system and the kinds of analysis used in the key decision documents in the system. Finally, some major conclusions to be drawn from this history of defense resource planning are summarized.
Download or read book Resource Allocation and Defense Planning in Retrospect and Prospect written by Charles Wolf and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Framework for Uncertainty Management in Water Resources Planning written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The management of uncertainty in Water-Resource Planning introduces a major choice involving risk taking: Delay action and pay more (in time and resources) to further reduce uncertainty/risk, or take action now, and accept the presence of uncertainty/risk. This report describes the methodology for: Making this choice, recognizing the vital importance of the manager's perception of, and willingness to take risk, and procedures for structuring uncertainty, having made the choice.
Download or read book Systems Analysis and Policy Planning written by Edward S. Quade and published by New York : American Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1968 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the present and future usefulness of systems analysis as an approach to policy planning, particularly in matters of national security. The study considers the basic concepts of systems analysis, including the problem of selecting operationally useful objectives, measures of their attainment, and criteria; the treatment of uncertainty; the place and function of technological considerations in planning or evaluating advanced systems; the character and role of resource and cost-sensitivity analysis; and the nature and value of models in systems analysis, especially the models provided by mathematical game theory, simulation, scenario writing, political analysis, and gaming. Earlier conclusions are reexamined in the light of the successes and failures of systems analysis during the past decade. Newer methods of analysis are discussed.
