Download or read book Decision Making in the Absence of Certainty written by Samuel David Mash and published by Association of College & Research Libraries. This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Decision making under certainty written by A. Schleifer and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Decision Making Under Certainty written by Arthur Schleifer and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to help readers analyze, make economic tradeoffs and choose wisely in complex decision problems where uncertainty, for all practical purposes, can be ignored. The authors focus on decisions involving relevant costs and revenues, pricing, constraints, the time value of money, and the use of scenarios, or what if analysis.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Download or read book David Hume s Political Theory written by Neil McArthur and published by University of Toronto Press. This book was released on 2007-12-15 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: David Hume (1711-1776) is perhaps best known for his treatises on problems of epistemology, skepticism, and causation. A less familiar side of his intellectual output is his work on legal and political theory. David Hume's Political Theory brings together Hume's diverse writings on law and government, collected and examined with a view to revealing the philosopher's coherent and persuasive theory of politics. Through close textual analysis, Neil McArthur suggests that the key to Hume's political theory lies in its distinction between barbarous and civilized government. Throughout the study, the author explores Hume's argument that a society's progress from barbarism to civilization depends on the legal and political system by which it is governed. Ultimately, McArthur demonstrates that the skepticism apparent in much of Hume's work does not necessarily tie him to a strict conservative ideology; rather, Hume's political theory is seen to emphasize many liberal virtues as well. Based on a new conception of Hume's political philosophy, this is a groundbreaking work and a welcome addition to the existing literature.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book External Costs of Coastal Beach Pollution written by Elizabeth A. Wilman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-09-16 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this title, originally published in 1984, Wilman develops and describes a methodology for imputing a monetary value to the loss in beach recreational services that would result from a hypothetical oil spill in the Georges Bank area off Massachusetts. Combining an oil-spill risk analysis model with an hedonic pricing model to generate estimates of beach pollution costs associated with offshore oil development, Wilman makes possible for the first time a rational judgement regarding whether the benefits of developing offshore oil outweigh the costs. This book is a valuable resource for students interested in environmental studies and Wilman’s methodological approach can be used to value other nonmarket resource services in any area.

Download or read book The Rule of Law and Automated Decision Making written by Markku Suksi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-07-24 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents observations concerning automated decision-making from a general point of view at the same time as it analyses the manner in which praxis in some jurisdictions has evolved as concerns automated decision-making and how the requirements that are placed by the legal orders on it are formulated. The principle of the rule of law should apply in the context of automated decision-making of public authorities just as much as when the decision-makers are physical persons. In sync with increasing automatization of decision-making in public authorities, problematizing questions about the appropriate legal basis for algorithmic decision-making have started emerge. How should the principle of the rule of law apply within the area of automated decision-making, how should automated decision-making be regulated so that it satisfies the requirements created by the principle of the rule of law, and how should the principle of the rule of law be made concrete in decision-making that is based on algorithms? The proposal for an AI Act launched by the European Commission in April 2021, including an identification of high-risk uses of algorithmic techniques, raises further questions concerning practices and interpretations related to automated decision-making. The state based on the rule of law proceeds from the maxim that public powers are exercised within a legal frame that makes the exercise of public powers foreseeable in light of legal norms. Also, a state based on the rule of law requires that the contents of the exercise of public powers is regulated by legal norms, which means that the citizens must be able to know everything that is relevant about how the powers will be exercised, not only who it is that will exercise the powers. Because of rules and principles of this kind, including non-discrimination and proportionality, the exercise of powers will not become arbitrary.

Download or read book Decision Making in Criminal Justice written by Michael R. Gottfredson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of decisions in the criminal justice process provides a useful focus for the examination of many fundamental aspects of criminal jus tice. These decisions are not always highly visible. They are made, or dinarily, within wide areas of discretion. The aims of the decisions are not always clear, and, indeed, the principal objectives of these decisions are often the subject of much debate. Usually they are not guided by explicit decision policies. Often the participants are unable to verbalize the basis for the selection of decision alternatives. Adequate information for the decisions is usually unavailable. Rarely can the decisions be demonstrated to be rational. By a rationaldecision we mean "that decision among those possible for the decisionmaker which, in the light of the information available, maximizes the probability of the achievement of the purpose of the decisionmaker in that specific and particular case" (Wilkins, 1974a: 70; also 1969). This definition, which stems from statistical decision theory, points to three fundamental characteristics of decisions. First, it is as sumed that a choice of possible decisions (or, more precisely, of possible alternatives) is available. If only one choice is possible, there is no de cision problem, and the question of rationality does not arise. Usually, of course, there will be a choice, even if the alternative is to decide not to decide-a choice that, of course, often has profound consequences.

Download or read book Risk and Rationality written by K. S. Shrader-Frechette and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2023-11-10 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1991.

Download or read book Advanced Decision Making written by John Band and published by Select Knowledge Limited. This book was released on 1999 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title looks at decision making from the manager’s viewpoint and aims to help you to improve your decision making. It also recognises that, in business today, decision making is everyone’s responsibility. Decision making for staff, who are not managers, is often through involvement in team decisions and the module also explores the benefits and limitations of team decision making.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Bell and published by . This book was released on 1995-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Patterns Predictions and Actions Foundations of Machine Learning written by Moritz Hardt and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-23 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative, up-to-date graduate textbook on machine learning that highlights its historical context and societal impacts Patterns, Predictions, and Actions introduces graduate students to the essentials of machine learning while offering invaluable perspective on its history and social implications. Beginning with the foundations of decision making, Moritz Hardt and Benjamin Recht explain how representation, optimization, and generalization are the constituents of supervised learning. They go on to provide self-contained discussions of causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning, equipping readers with the concepts and tools they need to assess the consequences that may arise from acting on statistical decisions. Provides a modern introduction to machine learning, showing how data patterns support predictions and consequential actions Pays special attention to societal impacts and fairness in decision making Traces the development of machine learning from its origins to today Features a novel chapter on machine learning benchmarks and datasets Invites readers from all backgrounds, requiring some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra An essential textbook for students and a guide for researchers

Download or read book Judgment Misguided written by Jonathan Baron and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1998 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

Download or read book Social Judgment and Decision Making written by Joachim I. Krueger and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 2012. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Download or read book Deciding written by Roger Estall and published by . This book was released on 2020-04-03 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deciding by Roger Estall and Grant Purdy This book is intended to help decision-makers of all types make even better decisions. The central thesis is that whether 'Deciders' realise it or not, all decisions are made using what the authors describe as 'the universal method of decision-making'. The adequacy of each decision therefore depends on how skilfully the method is applied, whether Deciders achieve 'sufficient certainty' about the outcomes that will flow from the decision and the contribution made by those outcomes to the organisation's Purpose. The authors shun jargon. The eight chapters and five appendices of the book include many practical tips with examples and anecdotes from various sectors that explain the universal method. Issues such as context, assumptions, and detecting and responding to change after the decision is made are addressed and there are clear, simple diagrams - including an easy-to-follow illustration of the universal method - to help the reader grasp the main concepts. The authors say that Deciding is a book for thinkers, rather than for those seeking a formulaic or procedurally rigid methodology. They will have realised their goal, they say, if Deciding causes readers to reflect on the way they apply the universal method, reinforce what they already do well, and recognise opportunities to improve. The Authors Roger Estall and Grant Purdy who first met in 2003, have similar, yet separate 40+ year careers as both Deciders and advisers. They have each chaired and served on boards and held executive and technical management roles in multiple areas of the public, private and not-for-profit sectors. Now based in Sydney and Melbourne respectively, their careers have taken them to many parts of the world.